Module 1 Study Guide Flashcards

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16 Terms

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Framing

Defining the problem and decision context in the decision-making process.

ex: poker frame bets on uncertain outcomes while gardening frame nurtures ideas and eliminates weak ones

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Thinking Frames

Mental models that highlight some aspects and ignore others

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Decision Frames

The yardsticks, criteria, and reference points used to make decisions

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Overconfidence Bias
A cognitive bias where individuals have an inflated belief in their abilities or predictions.
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Three Types of Overconfidence
Misetimation, Misplacement, and Misprecision.
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Misetimation
Incorrectly predicting outcomes, such as underestimating project completion time.
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Misplacement
The belief that one is better than others, like assuming most drivers are better-than-average.
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Misprecision
Overestimating the accuracy of judgments, leading to overly narrow confidence intervals.
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Groupthink
A phenomenon where the desire for harmony leads to poor decision-making by suppressing dissent.
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Affect Heuristic
Decision-making influenced by emotions, such as panic-selling during market crashes.
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Availability Heuristic
Judging the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind.
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Representativeness Heuristic
Making judgments based on stereotypes rather than statistical information.
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Regression to the Mean
The tendency for extreme outcomes to return to average levels over time.
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Structured Postmortems
A method for analyzing what went wrong in a decision to improve future outcomes.
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Self-Serving Bias
The tendency to attribute successes to internal factors and failures to external factors.
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Key Idea of Learning from Experience
Actively seek feedback and reflect on past mistakes to improve decision-making.