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risk
uncertainty concerning the occurrence of a loss (or calculated possibility of a negative outcome)
loss exposure
any situation where a loss is possible (does not have to occur)
loss frequency
how often a loss occurs within a specific period (probability)
formula to find frequency
# of losses/# of exposures
loss severity
how much does a loss cost when it occurs (a house fire costs $x)
formula to find severity
total losses in dollars/# of losses
Peril
cause of loss (fire, windstorm, flood)
Hazard
an event that creates or increases the frequency or severity of a loss
At what probability is risk highest?
0.5
Do risk and chance of loss mean the same?
No, chance of loss is the probability that an event will occur
What are the four types of hazards?
Physical, Moral, Morale, and Legal
Physical hazard
a physical condition that increases the frequency or severity of loss
moral hazard
dishonesty or character defects in an individual that increase the frequency or severity of loss (using a hammer to create "hail" damage to your roof to get a claim)
Morale (Attitudinal) Hazard
carelessness or indifference to a loss, which increases the frequency or severity of a loss (leaving car unlocked leading to theft)
Legal Hazard
characteristics of the legal system or regulatory environment that increase the frequency or severity of losses (a jury in one district may be more sympathetic than others)
pure risk
a risk with a possibility of loss or no loss; no gain occurs
speculative risk
A chance of loss, no loss, or gain
diversifiable risk
a risk that affects only individuals or small groups and not the entire economy
nondiversifiable risk
a risk that affects the entire economy or large numbers of persons or groups within the economy (war, inflation, business recession)
what makes a risk diversifiable or not?
it is diversifiable if it can be reduced or eliminated by diversification
enterprise risk
encompasses all major risks faced by a business firm
systemic risk
the risk that the failure of one financial institution can bring down other institutions as well
What are the major types of pure risk?
personal, property, and liability
personal risk
A risk that directly affects an individual or family (peril, like unemployment, causes loss of income)
property risk
possibility of losses associated with the destruction or theft of property (can be direct or indirect-financial loss result of direct loss)
legal liability risk
financial consequences from injuries or damages you caused to someone else (defense costs; liens on income or assets seized as punishment)
What are the techniques of managing risks?
risk control and risk financing
risk control
techniques that reduce the frequency or severity of losses
risk financing
techniques for funding losses
what are some risk control tactics?
loss prevention (employee training or safety equipment to reduce frequency), loss reduction (sprinkler heads for fires to reduce severity) , duplication, separation, diversification, and avoidance (never acquire loss exposure (proactive) or abandon loss (reactive))
what are some risk financing tactics?
retention (retaining part or all of losses from a risk), noninsurance risk transfer (risk is given to party other than insurance company), and insurance (transfer risk to insurer in exchange for a premium cost)
insurance
pooling of accidental losses by transfer of risks to insurers, who agree to compensate insureds for such losses, to provide monetary benefits on their occurrence, or to render services connected to the risks
basic characteristics of insurance
pooling of losses, payment of fortuitous losses, risk transfer, and indemnification
pooling of losses
spreading the losses of a few over an entire group (reduces variation which reduces uncertainty)
payment of fortuitous losses
insurance pays for losses that are unforeseen, unexpected, and occur from chance
risk transfer
A pure risk is transferred from the insured to the insurer, who typically is in a stronger financial position
indemnification
The insured is restored to his or her approximate financial position prior to the occurrence of the loss
What are characteristics of an ideally insurable risk?
Large # of exposure units, must be accidental and unintentional, determinable and measurable, should not be catastrophic, have a calculable chance, and have a economically feasible premium
Large # of exposure units
enables insurer to predict average loss based on law of large numbers
Loss must be accidental & unintentional
Loss should be outside of insured's control
the loss must be determinable and measurable.
definite cause, time, place, and amount of loss.
adverse selection
the tendency of persons with a higher-than-average chance of loss to seek insurance at standard rates (can lead to higher loss levels than expected)
(typically results from asymmetric info where one party only has relevant transaction info)
underwriting risks
process of selecting and classifying applicants for insurance (standards met, coverage items, and rates)
types of insurance
private and government
private insurance includes:
life & health and property & liability and casualty
casualty insurance
covers whatever is not covered by fire, marine, and life insurance (usually includes auto and workers' compensation)
government social programs
financed all or mostly by contributions from employees and/or employers. benefits are weighted in favor of low income groups
risk management
a process that identifies loss exposures faced by an organization and selects the most appropriate techniques for treatment
Pre-Loss objectives of risk management
efficient cost of risk, permits better decision making, and meet legal obligations
Post-Loss objectives of risk management
survival of the firm, business continuity, earnings, & growth, and societal responsibility
What are the steps in the risk management process?
1) Identify loss exposures, 2) measure and analyze the loss exposure, 3) consider and select appropriate treatment techniques, and 4) implement and monitor the chosen techniques
What are some important loss exposures
property, liability, income loss, human resource loss, crime loss, employee benefit, foreign, and intangible and regulatory
What are some ways of identifying loss exposures?
analyzing statements, past losses, staff meetings with RM, inspections, surveys, and flowcharts
What is a good way to analyze loss exposure
rank loss exposures by importance (severity)
maximum possible loss
the worst loss that could happen to the firm during its lifetime
probable maximum loss
the worst loss that is likely to happen
What techniques would we use for loss exposure treatment?
Risk control and/or risk financing
What are some methods used for paying losses when financing risks?
Current net income, unfunded reserve, funded reserve, and credit line
current net income
losses are treated as current expenses (if a loss is too big, firm may have to liquidate assets)
unfunded reserve
bookkeeping account that is charged with actual or expected losses from a given exposure
funded reserve
funds set aside for losses
Why could a funded reserve not be ideal?
because it is not tax deductible and money could be used elsewhere in the firm
captive insurer
an insurer owned by a parent firm for the purpose of insuring the parent firm's loss exposures (lower costs, easy to obtain insurance, and possible tax advantages)
Can a captive insurer have more than one parent?
yes
self-insurance
planned retention by which part or all of a given loss exposure is retained by the firm
Risk Retention Group (RRG)
a group captive that can write any type of liability coverage except employers' liability, workers compensation, and personal lines (could save or have possible higher costs)
noninsurance transfers
methods other than insurance by which a pure risk and its potential financial consequences are transferred to another party (apartment lease or contracts)
emphasized areas of commercial insurance
selection of insurance coverages, selection of insurer, negotiation of terms, dissemination of info of coverages, periodic review of insurance program
deductible
amount you must pay before you begin receiving any benefits from your insurance company
excess insurance
plan in which the insurer does not participate in the loss until the actual loss exceeds the amount a firm has decided to retain
manuscript
policy specially tailored for a firm
what are advantages of commercial insurance?
firm indemnified for loss and continue operation, uncertainty is reduced, firm may receive valuable RM services, and premiums are tax deductible
what are disadvantages of commercial insurance?
premiums may be more costly, negotiations of policies takes time and effort, most policies are annual, and the RM might be lax in exercising loss control
underwriting cycles
Hard market - insurer profitability is declining, underwriting standards are tightened, premiums increase, and insurance is hard to obtain.
Soft market - profitability is improving, standards are loosened, premiums decline, and insurance become easier to obtain.
What are some benefits of risk management?
enables a firm to attain its pre/post loss objectives easier, society benefits because both direct and indirect losses are reduced, and can reduce a firm's total cost of risk
Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)
strategic business discipline that supports the achievement of an organization's business objectives by addressing the full spectrum of its risks and managing the combined impact of those risks as an integrated risk portfolio (typically headed by CRO)
what was the biggest category of insurance loss in 9/11?
Business interruption (33% with $15.6 B)
What are the types of risks within ERM?
Hazard, operational, financial, and strategic
Hazard risks (ERM)
traditional "pure" risks from regular RM
operational risk
results from the firm's day to day business operations (ex: supply chain, cybersecurity, customer service)
financial risk
arise from changing conditions in financial markets (ex: interest rates, exchange rates, credit risk, commodity and liquidity availability)
strategic risk
external risks that a firm has no control over; must be in ready position to respond (ex: brick and mortar stores able to convert to online)
Some other ERM risks include:
reputational, regulatory/compliance (OSHA, taxes), terrorism, COVID, and climate change
risk register
table with risk, category, responsible party, maximum possible and probable loss, comments, and risk score if treated or left untreated
risk map
graph of risks with axes of frequency and severity
What are some advantages of an ERM program?
increase awareness of risk, integrated response to full range of risks, alignment with org.'s risk tolerance and its strategies, fewer operational surprises and loses which increase value of org., and greater compliance with regulations and improved accountability
Challenges/Barriers of an ERM Programs
dynamic, lack of commitment from senior leadership, resistance to change / disagreement over responsibilities / turf war, and communication
Why use ERM?
by combining all risks into a single risk management program, the organization may be able to offset one risk against another, and reduce its overall risk
insurer combined ratio
ratio of paid losses and loss adjustment + underwriting expenses (if >100%, underwriting is unprofitable by paying out more than received, and vice versa)
insurer investment returns
issuing lower premiums with expected loss in hope to offset with investment income
Funded reserve, Loss prevention
High frequency, low severity
Unfunded reserve
Low frequency, low severity
Avoidance, Captive or risk retention group, Loss prevention/reduction
High frequency, high severity
Insurance, Loss reduction
low frequency, high severity