✅Short term factors

Social voting:

• People are influenced by their shared membership of a particular social group

Social voting means people are likely to cast the vote in?

solidarity w other members of their social group

Social voting behaviour allows political parties to

tailor policies towards key groups

Individual voting:

• People decide how to cast their vote based on their individual preferences

Individual voters are likely to cast their vote based on

their individual preferences

Individual voting is harder for political parties to?

aggregate public opinions into workable policy initiatives

Short-term theories:

issue voting

Economic or valence issues

issue voting

• Voters prioritise one issue above all + cast their vote based on the issue. They judge a political party on their position on this issue + choose the one which most reflects their own opinion

E.g. of issue voting

• E.g. 2019 GE- Johnson campaigned using ‘get Brexit done’ - appealed to impatient ‘leave’ voters

Economic or valence issues

• A valence issue is one where the voters make a judgement based on performance + who is best able to deliver a desired outcome, this is closely linked to governing competence ( the perceived ability of the governing party)

E.g. of economic or valence issues voting

• E.g. 2024 GE- valence election cuz tories were rejected by electorate due to economic issues caused by Liz Truss + competence

Important short term factors

• governing competence

• Leader

• Party image

• Campaign

• Turnout

why governing competence is an important factor

• ‘Govt’s lose elections; opposition do not win them’ Election success is dictated by the performance of the govt (particularly economic)

Why leaders are important factors

• Often leaders of parties are crucial in determining success- people want someone they can trust + who appears strong

Why party image is an important factor

• This relates to leadership + the policies of political parties, as well as how united to the party is (often linking to their competence)

Why the campaign is an important factor

• These focus attention on the leader + the policies of the party, campaigns rarely change people’s minds

Why turnout is an important factor

• Voter turnout is incredibly low showing voter disillusion + apathy, suggesting people are less concerned by the results of elections, or that there is ‘hapathy’ with people content w their circumstances + don’t see the need to vote

E.g.s of Leadership as an important factor

Blair + Johnson

E.g. of party image as an important factor

Disagreement over Brexit, vs 2024 united labour,

E.g. of turnout as an important factor

2024- 59% =disillusionment w main parties

E.g. of campaign as an important factor

Corbyn anti semitism

e.g. of turnout as an important factor

2024 GE- 59% =disillusionment w main parties

UK 2024 election outcomes:

• Labour party secured a landslide victory w 411 seats

• Conservatives experienced a historic low w only 121 seats, worst performance since 1906

• Lib dems achieved their highest ever w 72 seats

• Reform, while obtaining 5 seats, ranked 3rd in total votes

2024 GE turnout

• 59.7%, the lowest since 2001

2024 GE Voting behaviour: sociological factors

• Turnout was 11% higher in areas w greater proportion of over 64s

• Turnout was 7% lower in areas w higher minority ethnic populations

• 1/3 of voters cast their ballots tactically, indicating tactical voting

2024 GE key issues

• Electorate were primarily concerned w cost of living, immigration, healthcare + the economy

• 68% of voters thought Britain was 'broken' reflecting widespread dissatisfaction

2024 GE Impact of party leaders

• Starmer benefited from a desire to change, but his personal popularity remained moderate

• Sunak faced internal party issues + declining public trust

• Farage gained traction, esp in traditional labour areas, by addressing concerns over immigration + working class interest

2024 GE Impact of campaigning

• Labour focused on presenting a united front + capitalising on conservative weakness

• Conservatives struggles w internal controversies + divisions, including allegations of insider betting

• Reform posed themselves as the voice of the disenchanted

2024 GE Impact of the media

• Labour received more TV coverage, but most focused on internal disputes

• Reform was only party to receive more positive than negative media attention

• Increased scrutiny on party controversies influenced public trust