American Government Final Game of Elections

1. Game of Elections

a. Political Parties

b. Interest Groups

c. Media

d. Candidates

e. Voters

1. Political Parties

a. Democrats and Republicans

b. “Independents”

c. Third Parties

d. Presidents Democrat or Republican since 1860

i. Lincoln 1860

ii. Jackson 1828

e. Adams and Jefferson

i. Federalist

ii. Democratic-Republican

f. Washington no party affiliation

1. Washington’s Significance

a. Revolutionary War

b. Articles of Confederation

c. Constitutional Convention

d. Time as President

e. Washington’s Farewell Address

i. Debt

ii. Alliances

iii. Party Politics

iv. Connection to modern politics

Washington elected president multiple times unanimously, even when he did not necessarily want to be re-elected.

Washington Farewell Address 1796 points:

• Don't have too many allies (spread yourself too thin)

• Beware of political parties/exercise caution (can lead to power for the party and not for the people)

Secretary of State under Washington:

Thomas Jefferson
Southern slave owner 

Vice President under Washington:

John Adams 

Northern Abolitionist

Jefferson and Adams Friendship:

Became friends during 1776 independence 

• 1796 (20 years later) worst enemies/extremely divided

• 1796 Adams wins the presidency. 

• 1800 Jefferson wins the presidency. 

  • Both died on the same day 4th of July,1826 exactly 50 years after 1776 Independence.

Political Parties and Interest Groups

Language Codifies Perception:

The words we use, establish rules for how the audience is interpret

what is being discussed.

• Language: The words we use.

• Codefies: Establishes rules for

• Perception: How the audience interprets the topic.

  Example:

“Kids Prefer Veggies with Cool Names”

“pro life vs pro choice”

Income tax

Highest means to fund the STATE.

Property tax:

Funds the COUNTY, not the state

CA takes how much annually?

300 Billion dollars

Education minimum:

• CA must spend 40% minimum on education. (teacher centered spending)

• If we dip below 40 you have to make the money up over the years

Interest groups

A group of people that seeks to influence public policy on the basis of a particular common interest or concern.

Teacher centered Interest groups:

• (CTA) K-12 union faculty. California Teachers Association 

• (AFT) Higher Ed union faculty. American Federation of

  • Teachers work for themselves, not the students.

    • Rates continue to go up.

    • Young people don’t have actual advocates.

  • How to balance a budget 3 ways:

    • Increase revenue (taxes and fees)

    • Cut spending

    • Economy improves (not realistic)

What California spends the most on using their large tax budget:

• Full time faculty retirement benefits (public employee pension)

• Pension: after retirement its a percentage of salary every year

  • A marked percentage The more you work the higher percentage you get after retirement.

Chuck Reed

Proposed less than 1% cut (killed his political career)

Transparent California 

401k:

You put money in and your employer matches it. It's then put into the stock market so it can grow with interest. 

Pension

A fixed percentage (example: Take 3 highest grossing years average; take 75% of that average and get paid that 75% every year for retirement)

Tenure

Permanent position (was supposed to motivate the teacher to be dynamic)

Game of Elections Models

1. Traditional Model

2. Michigan Model

When did policy shift?

1920’s

Traditional Model

Which party do you identify with

i. Republican

ii. Democrat

c. 54/46 Republican Advantage

i. Economy Boom (Roaring 20’s)

ii. Party of Lincoln v. Party of Jackson

d. 1940s and 1950s migration to Democrats

1920’s why was it 54/46 Republicans:

1. Economics (boom of the roaring 20’s)

• James Carville: understand the Economy to understand politics.

2. Party Branding Lincoln v. Jackson

3. Foreign Policy: Large overall sentiment of the country embraced isolationism.

ii. Party of Lincoln v. Party of Jackson

• The face of the Democratic party was Jackson (not too popular)

• The face of Republican party was Abraham Lincoln (popular)

1940’s/1950’s Migration to Democrat party:

• Slow shift, only till mid 50’s did the majority migration happen after FDR’s new deals were working.

1. Stock Market

2. Great Depression

3. FDR

• Was seen as “Pro Worker”

• 3 R's: Relief for the unemployed Recovery of the economy, Reforms of the financial

• Stewardship through Stock Market Crash, Great Depression, and winning the war.

• Bombing of Pearl Harbor 1941 

• FDR issued japanese internment camps

• No such thing as “pat switch” is always gradual

• African Americans moved to the Democratic party because of FDR’s new deal for job opportunities for workers.

Party Branding ex

• Republicans are “Party of Lincoln”

• Either or Dichotomy

1968 “Michigan Model”

36/30/34

D   I    R

Vietnam War 1955-75

• Drafts (forcing people who do not want to fight)

• Length 20 years.

• In 68 the realization of the Vietnam war being unpopular, those who were not pr war had “i told you so” moment.

Civil Right Movement

Fighting for civil rights attacked by fellow Americans

Hippie Movement

Anti establishment 

The Vietnam War, Civil Rights Movement, Hippie Movement

Were all reasons for leaving the Democratic and Republican parties and migrating to the Independent party.

Impact of Television

• The new way America digests politics

• There is a great disconnect from what you see on T.V vs seeing it in real life. The impact is not the same.

Ideal Citizen Model 

Ideal: How we SHOULD be

• Educated

• Informed

• Morals/principles

• Open minded

• Votes (participates)

Actual Citizen Model:

How most people ARE.

• Uninformed

  • Lack of education

  • Media/news

• Not open minded

• Low voting numbers 

How we should act as citizens verses how most people most of the time act.

3 I’s of Voter Decision Making

1. ID

2. Image (short term variable)

3. Issues (short term variable)

ID

Political Party

Image

• Perception

• How do candidates  “construct” their image for public consumption?

  • Likable vs not 

  • How do they speak

  • Are the good looking

Issues

 (short term variable)

• Specific Plans

• Proposals

• Ideas

Whether or not you voted depends on:

1. Income

2. Age 

3. Education

• How should we rank these in order of importance?

• Issues should come first but does it for most people most of the time?

Test cases to examine Image verses Issues

1960 

• T.V 

• We can no HEAR and SEE the candidates 

• Kennedy v Nixon 

• Image v Issues 

  • Nixon “seemed” nervous on T.V

  • JFK understood the power of “image”

2000

• Bush v Gore 

• Images v Issue 

• Gore resume;

• VP of prosperous time under Clinton, more qualified 

  • Personality: 

    • Stuffy

    • Academic 

    • Rigid 

  • Gore see’s that Independents and Democrats think he's more qualified, Republicans think Bush is more qualified

  • However in likability Republicans & Independents say BUSH is more “likable than Gore”

• Independents lean towards Gore (more qualified)

• Bush Resume;

• His dads accomplishments, popular Governor from Texas

  • He had private enterprise and business (owned fortune 500 company)

  • Primary owner of Texas Rangers

  • “C’s get degrees”; relates to common people

  • Personality:

    •  “I’m this every man's man”

    • Southern accent from Connecticut? 

  • “I feel you pain; relating to American public”

2003

• Gray Davis v Arnold Schwarzenegger

Issue vs image 

• Davis Personality;

  • Davis gets recalled because he is a bad governor when navigating energy crisis

  • Crime; mismanagement

  • Asking Cruz Bustamante to not put his hat in the ballet

• Problems happening in CA: 

  • Major energy crisis;

  • Planned rolling blackouts

  • Planned working fur-lows

2008

• Obama vs McCain

Image vs Issue

• Arm waving issue 

• McCain 

• Senator from Arizona 

• fighter pilot 

• Often called “RINO” (Republican In Name Only)

• Sarah Palin

• Too soft not strong enough for Republicans

• Obama

  • Senator from Illinois

  • Only served a few year before announcing presidency 

  • Cool

  • Every Man's man 

  • Approachable 

2016

Trump v Hilary

Image Issues

Michigan Model

36/30/34

D  I  R

    40

• According to University of Michigan 1968 

  • Broke model down in 7 groups

  • Republican

    • Strong 

      • 91% on who they support

    • Weak

      • 76%

  • Democrat 

    • Strong 

      • 100% on who they support

    • Weak

      • 72%

  • Independent 

    • True Independent 

      • 50/50 on who they support

    • Lean Democrat

    • 78%

    • Lean Republican

    • 86%

    
    

90% of people vote IN there party

Voters vote IMAGE over Issue 

Romney quotes (knows he won't appeal to half of voters so appeal to his side)