Evaluate the view that non-democratic states are the system of government that is the biggest threat to global peace and security (30)

For: Non-democratic states and their collapse leads to political violence and instability

Non democratic states concentrate power in a single leader, ruling elite, military or party, with minimal public participation.

Strong argument – repression and authoritarian control cause domestic instability, uprisings and civil wars that spill across borders.

E.g. Arab Spring (2011): Revolts against autocratic regimes led to civil wars in Syria (against Bashar Al Assad’s regime) and Libya (against Muammar Gaddafi’s autocratic regime)

Libya (2011): fall of Gaddafi created a power vacuum, triggering prolonged factional conflict, arms trafficking and migrant flows destabilising North Africa and Europe.

 Dr Congo (1997): Removal of Mobutu led to a regionalised civil war known as “Africa’s World War” involving Rwanda, Uganda, and Angola, causing 5+ million deaths and long-term regional instability.

Against: Failed states cause greater instability and regional conflict

Failed states are countries where gov authority collapses – institutions break down, law and order disappear, and essential services stop functioning.

Major threat because:

Total collapse of governance creates violence, lawlessness and opportunities for terrorist/militant groups

These groups engage in arms trafficking, smuggling and cross-border attacks, destabilising whole regions

Neighbouring countries become involved through refugee flows or security spillover

Key examples:

Somalia (post-1991): gov collapse – rule by militias, warlords, al Shabaab, ISIS. Led to piracy disrupting global shipping and military responses by the US and UK

Sudan (2023 conflict): Over 1 million refugees fled to Chad, South Sudan, Egypt, triggering resource conflicts, border insecurity, and armed group movements

For: Rogue states intentionally disrupt global peace and stability

Rogue states are non-democratic nations that intentionally disrupt international order, violate treaties, support terrorism, or pursue WMDs.
Threaten global peace because:

Aggressive or unpredictable actions destabilise regions and challenge global powers

Non-democratic systems enable leaders to act without domestic constraints, making international disruption easier

Key examples:

Russia:

Ukraine invasion (2022) – European instability

Support for Assad in Syria – prolonged civil war – 10 years

 Iran:

Nuclear programme – tensions with Israel and US, sanctions, airstrikes

Support for Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis – instability in Lebanon, Israel, Yemen

Contrast with democracies:

Democracies decentralise power, protect human rights, and rarely fight each other – Democratic Peace Theory

Example: Kosovo intervention (1999, NATO) promoted peace and human rights.

Non-democratic rogue states are arguably the biggest international disruptors of global peace and security.

Against: Democratic states have caused greater instability in the name of promoting democracy

Democratic states sometimes cause war and instability while promoting democracy or human rights.

 

Iraq (2003, US/UK): Overthrow of Saddam Hussein – sectarian violence, rise of ISIS – 200,000

Afghanistan (2001-2002): Attempted democracy – Taliban return, costly failures

Israel/Gaza conflict: US arms support despite civilian deaths and human rights abuses

 

Counterpoint to Non-Democracies:

Some democratic states e.g. China practice non-intervention – domestic human rights abuses, but regional stability remains intact.

 Both democratic and non-democratic states can destabilise regions

Rogue non-democratic states (Russia, Iran) remain the greater threat because their actions intentionally target global peace and the liberal international order

For: Semi-Democratic states cause disruption within the existing international order

Semi-democratic states combine democratic and autocratic features. They may hold elections and allow political pluralism but undermine democratic institutions via electoral manipulation, media control, or civil liberties restrictions. 

Threaten global peace because:

They participate in IGOs and supranational bodies but weaken their effectiveness, cooperating with autocratic states.

Can undermine alliances and disrupt the balance of power

Key examples:

Turkey under President Erdogan has undergone increasing authoritarianism – electoral manipulation, censorship, suppression of opponents; builds ties with Russia and threatens Western unity and global stability.

Hungary under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has shifted from fully democratic state to a semi-democratic state – undermined judicial independence, restricted media, curtailed civil society = tensions within the Eu, weakening its global promotion of democracy.

Semi-democratic states can destabilise the international order from within, challenging the notion that fully non-democratic stats are always the greatest threat.

 

Against: Non-democratic states intentionally disrupt and destabilise democracies

Non-democratic states intentionally undermine democracies to create instability, weaken liberal alliances, and expand influence through semi-democratic proxies.

Key mechanisms:

Encourage democratic backsliding in Western countries

Support semi-democratic govs that align with their interests

Spread disinformation to polarise populations and reduce trust in institutions

Russia (2016 US Election):  Primary goal to undermine public’s faith in the US democratic process, denigrate Hillary Clinton and boost Donald Trump’s candidacy through social media propaganda and cyber attacks.

China and Hungary: collaborated to strengthen China’s influence in the EU, creating rifts in liberal alliances.

Semi-democratic state pose a threat from within, but non democratic states are the primary drivers, intentionally creating instability in liberal democracies and global institutions.