Populations and Sociology Midterm

How does demography affect our lives?

Production, "enrollment cliff", how wars are won or lost

The Agricultural Revolution (~8000 BC)

mostly hunter gatherers, estimated ~ 4 M people, population had a lower carrying capacity because of available resources

Hunter Gatherer Pros vs Cons

Good diet diversity, fit population, limited disease vs people who can't be supported might be left behind, always living day-to-day

Farming Pros vs Cons

can produce surplus food, stay in one place, support more people, build things, population gradually increased vs more disease, death rate increased slightly

First two dips in Global Population Growth Chart (500 & 1380)

- Collapse of the Roman Empire, Collapse of Han Dynasty, Famine and Plague
- The Black Death

Next Rise in Population Growth Chart (1600-1915)

Industrial Revolution, Better Sanitation, potato hits Eurasia, and Reduced Infant Mortality Rate

"South" to "North" migration

Moving from a southern, underdeveloped country to a northern, industrialised country

What is demography?

study of human populations

Key demographic questions

Fertility, mortality, migration, urbanization

What resources do we consume to sustain ourselves?

Clothes, toiletries, water, food, shelter, gas, trash management

10 most populous countries

China, India, US, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Russia, Mexico

North America

US + Canada - 385 M people, 85+% in US
1492: 2-5 M indigenous people but by 1850 250K, decimated by germs and guns
After 1850 high immigration

Central America

Population: 184 M(abt 3/4 in mexico)
~ 2% world total
Pre-colonial: home to large civilizations with millions of people
Contact w spanish guns and germs reduced indigenous population by 80%
Early 20th Century Life expectancy less than 30 years
Current high levels of fertility and high levels of migration

South America

Population: 436 M
~ 6% of world population
Brazil - 1/2 continent population, 1/2 European 1/2 African w some Japanese, Settled by Portuguese + 4 M slaves, Fertility crash 6.5-2.5 from 1960-1995
Other countries - european descent lower mortality fertility and growth, indigenous or mixed descent higher mortality, fertility, and growth

Europe

Population: ~745 M(~10% of world populations)
Largest countries: Russia~145M, Germany~85M, UK~69M, France~67M, Italy~59M
Low mortality and fertility overall

North Africa and Western Asia

Population: ~ 527M
Largest Countries: Egypt~116M and Turkey~87M
Egypt - high fertility, density, and 70 yr life expectancy
Turkey - Low fertility and morality
High levels of conflict and outmigration

Sub-Saharan Africa

~13% of world population
Largest Countries: Nigeria~218M, Ethiopia~123M, DR of the Congo~109M
Beset by conflict, poverty, social barriers

South + South East Asia

Population ~2.74 B ~1/3 of world population
India ~1.45 B, 4x us pop and 1/3 of space, 2.03 TFR
Indonesia ~284 M, largest muslim country in world, chain of 18,000 islands
Phillipines ~116 M people, chain of 7,000 islands, mostly catholic some muslim regions
Vietnam population doubled since vietnam war, TFR declined from 6 to 2

East Asia

Population ~1.66 B ~20% of world population
China: 1.42 B, no longer largest population, one child policy in 1979, two child in 2016, population decline began in 2022
Japan: declining population, TFR ~1.3, decline offset by high life expectancy ~84
South Korea: ~51.7 M, lowest fertility rate in the world 0.7

What social changes led to the need for Humanae vitae in the first place?

- free sexuality
- Women's rights
- progress in controlling every aspect of life

What specific questions did the document set out to address?

- what kinds of birth control are permissible?
- family planning in general and what families should look like
- what does responsible parenting look like?

What does HV identify as the components of married love?

- Fully human, stronger component of choice, will, decision, and commitment, it's sacrificial
- Procreative/fecund, open to life
- Faithful/exclusive

What constitutes responsible parenthood?

-fully aware of the obligations as parents
-man's reason should exert control on his emotions
- are you ready to have a child? socially, psychologically, economically
- following the will of God

What does HV prohibit and why?

- cannot prevent procreation, artificial birth control in particular
- no abortion
- no sterilization

What does HV allow and why?

Natural Family Planning

Birth Control

Any effort to regulate fertility, whether natural or artificial means

Natural birth control

natural family planning, regulating fertility through abstinence during fertile periods

Artificial birth control

any effort to separate acts of sexual intercourse from pregnancy

Hormonal birth control

- methods used to prevent pregnancy by manipulating hormones
- this is the most effective and least intrusive
- major development of this century

1873 - Comstock laws

Banned distribution of obscene materials including contraceptives or information about contraceptives

Progressive Era

- more interest social rather than individual problems
- more willingness to mobilize big government, business
- more rationalistic approaches to social problems

Eugenics

trying to improve the human race by regulating fertility

Margaret Sanger (1878-1966)

- Nurse with strong interest in fertility regulation
- birth control activist who coined the term
- launched publications like the woman rebel and birth control review
- founder of american birth control league

Birth Control Movement

1921 - american birth control league founded
1936 - US vs One Package
1965 - Griswold vs Connecticut
1972 - Eisenstadt v Baird

The Pill Timeline

1900's - scientists figure out that hormones play a role in fertility
1950's - a handful of scientists working separately start to figure out methods of regulating hormones for contraceptive usage
1955 - The pill is developed and passes clinical trials
1957 - enovid gets FDA approval
1960's - the pill becomes increasingly widespread

Hormonal birth control today

- A variety of methods: injections, skin patches, implants
~30% women ages 14-49 are on hormonal birth control
- highly effective though some have negative effects

Birth Control Battles

- 1930 split, anglican communion approved, pope pius XI said it was a sin
- 1963 Pope John XIII establishes 6 person pontificial commission on population, family, and birth rate
-1968 Pope rules against birth control

What are some reasons governments might want to count their people?

Taxation, military service, population resources and needs, political representation

What are some demographic features governments might want to know about their populations?

age and sex, income and employment, race and ethnicity, family structure

Counting people

- it's difficult and resource
- large, powerful, organized, and centralized state is needed to do it well
- Early examples: ancients: israel, egyptians, romans, chinese, and norman england

Ways to count people

census, vital statistics, sample surveys, administrative data, historical data

Census of Population

count of everybody, increasingly common, different strategies and information asked

The US Census

Required every 10 years per the Constitution, ~13.7 B spent, staff of ~4300

US Census Sources of Error

coverage errors, uncounted or double counted, when responses are missing or inacurate, questionable wording and respondent competency matter

Sample

a subset of a population selected for a questionnaire, should be random/representative

Major Sample Surveys

American Community Survey, Current Population Survey, National Survey of Family Growth, General Social Survey, American National Election Studies, Gallup

Census

total count of population, provides complete information about a population, extremely expensive

Vital and administrative statistics

Gives you totals of events like new events, helps track population changes, can't give you rates unless merged with other data

Sample surveys

comparatively quick and inexpensive, can be tailored to information needs, built in assumptions and uncertainties

Historical demography

Past records, graveyards, old newspapers, genealogies, lots of information gaps

Spatial demography

Can be used for studying effects of place, very specific census data

Applied demography

political campaigning, policy design, business decisions

Premodern Demographic Thought

-The Bible, Genesis 1:28
-Plato's Laws
-Roman Empire
-Christianity
-Mercantilism
-John Graunt
-Adam Smith
-Malthusianism
-Marx and Engels

The Bible, Genesis 1:28

Be fruitful and multiply

Plato's Laws (360 BC)

Population should be roughly constant, land passed through generations, quality>quantity, population controlled by migration, marriage, and infanticide

Roman Empire

Encouraged more babies, replenish army, colonize other places

chrisianity

Value both life and childless life dedicated towards god

Mercantilism

Increase in population to provide labor, think 16th-18th century, post plague

John Graunt (1620-1674)

Analyzed birth and death rates for fun, first to analyze it in a modern way, used his approach to calculate life expectancies, drew attention to how mortality varies by place

Adam Smith (1723-1790)

famous economist, applied similar thinking to demography, said people will have about as many kids as they want/can afford, natural affinity between population growth and economic growth, demand for labor -> more population

Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834)

Clergyman in Church of England, Published An Essay on the Principle of Population as it affect the Future Improvement of Society

Malthusianism Basic Principles

- Population grows geometrically
- Food supply grows arithmetically
- Thus population will outstrip food supply resulting in poverty, famine, and war

Malthusianism Proposed Solution

Moral Restraint, don't get married and have kids till you can support them, Said poor were incapable of this and welfare assistance should not happen

Why is Malthusianism Wrong?

Underestimated food supply growth, overstating inevitability of poverty, overemphasizing moral restraint, also blaming poor rather than society.

Marx and Engels

late 19th century social theorists and activists, founders of communist ideology

Marx's key doctrines

History driven by systems of material production, good part of capitalism: productive, bad part of capitalism: owners of means of production exploit workers, Goal: workers overthrow capitalists and we enter an age of material abundance and equality

Marx/Engels beef with Malthus

thought reproduction and food production were products of society, believed poverty was due to social exploitation, "overpopulation" was due to greedy capitalists

Marx/Engel's vs Malthus

both asking right questions, Marx/Engels more right than Malthus

John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)

Mid 19th century English philosopher, Split difference between Malthus and Marx

Mill's suggestions

more positive about human nature and ingenuity, food shortages could be addressed by importing food or exporting people, thought people would alter fertility based on circumstances, standard of living rises people desire different things, thought female education was key

Arsene Dumont

late 19th century french demographer, society became more equal fewer children, if social ladder to climb people will have fewer kids

Emile Durkheim

turn of century sociologist, argued more people meant more division of labor, in primitive societies everyone does mostly the same things, in advanced populous societies everyone has to find a niche

(First)Demographic Transition Theory (DTT)

Assumes societies transition from C to A
- C High mortality/fertility, everywhere else-high growth potential
- B Declining mortality/fertility, southern and eastern Europe, transitional growth
- A Low mortality/fertility, northern/western europe and US, incipient decline

Classic DTT

Trad societies have high mortality/fertility then have health advancements, industrial economies, urbanization, and mortality declines but fertility lags as norms take time to adjust

Critiques of Classic DTT

assumes populations seek stability/homeostasis, assumes modernization to mortality decline to fertility decline, it doesn't always happen is that order, assumes everywhere is the same which is not true

Expanded DTT

ideational factors, how people think about fertility
secularization, as religious influence declines, so does fertility

Rational choice theory

fertility became subject to cost benefit analysis, ag communities children were a benefit but industrial communities they were a cost

Easterlins relative cohort size hypothesis

Cohort: Age group/generation, We want the same standard of living we grew up with, Smaller cohorts will have lots of opportunities to make $$$, settle down, have kids, Larger cohorts will have fewer opportunities, will settle down later, have fewer kids, (This one didn't pan out—even small cohorts have few kids)

Second Demographic Transition(SDT)

Many places have dropped below replacement(S Korea, Spain, Taiwan, USA), increase childlessness, and birth out of wedlock, More cohabitation less marriage

What explains SDT?

extremely effective contraception, postindustrial economy, changing values, increasing education, more secularization

Morbidity

prevalence of disease

Mortality

Prevalence of death

The Big shift

from younger death due to communicative disease to later death from degenerative disease

Life expectancy does not mean...

the age at which most people die, it's an average

Hunter Gatherer Mortality

most death due to malnutrition but also geronticide or infanticide

Post ag Mortality

Plagues(Black Death, Spanish Flu), destruction of indigenous populations

The Power of Public Health

Medical advancements also helped but the largest factor was public health such as improved nutrition, better hygiene, clean water, soap, vaccines, and better understanding of disease

Two key avenues of extending life

preventing or treating causes of mortality

Oldest person on record

Jean Louise Calment 122 years

What aspects of society affect lifespan?

Public health, access to medical care, peace/prosperity

What aspects of lifestyle affect lifespan?

diet, exercise, fresh air, moderate habits, outlook on life, good social relationships

Infant mortality rate

Number of deaths in the first year of life per 1,000 births

Why might infant mortality be high?

weak immune system, malnutrition, dehydration, prematurity

Crude Death Rate (CDR)

The total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people alive in the society.

Age and Sex specific death rates(ASDR's)

ASDR = ndx/nPx*1000

What do age adjusted death rates do?

allows you to compare two places death rates without skewing due to age groups

Age Adjusted Death Rates

AADR = Sum of nSx*nMx / Sum nSx

Mortality Disparities

years of life, can come from different inputs

Mortality Disparities by Race

African Americans - high mortality, poverty, stress, violence
American Indians - high mortality
Asians - low mortality, high education, exercise
Hispanics - low mortality, hispanic paradox

Mortality by marital status

lower life expectancy for single people