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How does demography affect our lives?
Production, "enrollment cliff", how wars are won or lost
The Agricultural Revolution (~8000 BC)
mostly hunter gatherers, estimated ~ 4 M people, population had a lower carrying capacity because of available resources
Hunter Gatherer Pros vs Cons
Good diet diversity, fit population, limited disease vs people who can't be supported might be left behind, always living day-to-day
Farming Pros vs Cons
can produce surplus food, stay in one place, support more people, build things, population gradually increased vs more disease, death rate increased slightly
First two dips in Global Population Growth Chart (500 & 1380)
- Collapse of the Roman Empire, Collapse of Han Dynasty, Famine and Plague
- The Black Death
Next Rise in Population Growth Chart (1600-1915)
Industrial Revolution, Better Sanitation, potato hits Eurasia, and Reduced Infant Mortality Rate
"South" to "North" migration
Moving from a southern, underdeveloped country to a northern, industrialised country
What is demography?
study of human populations
Key demographic questions
Fertility, mortality, migration, urbanization
What resources do we consume to sustain ourselves?
Clothes, toiletries, water, food, shelter, gas, trash management
10 most populous countries
China, India, US, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Russia, Mexico
North America
US + Canada - 385 M people, 85+% in US
1492: 2-5 M indigenous people but by 1850 250K, decimated by germs and guns
After 1850 high immigration
Central America
Population: 184 M(abt 3/4 in mexico)
~ 2% world total
Pre-colonial: home to large civilizations with millions of people
Contact w spanish guns and germs reduced indigenous population by 80%
Early 20th Century Life expectancy less than 30 years
Current high levels of fertility and high levels of migration
South America
Population: 436 M
~ 6% of world population
Brazil - 1/2 continent population, 1/2 European 1/2 African w some Japanese, Settled by Portuguese + 4 M slaves, Fertility crash 6.5-2.5 from 1960-1995
Other countries - european descent lower mortality fertility and growth, indigenous or mixed descent higher mortality, fertility, and growth
Europe
Population: ~745 M(~10% of world populations)
Largest countries: Russia~145M, Germany~85M, UK~69M, France~67M, Italy~59M
Low mortality and fertility overall
North Africa and Western Asia
Population: ~ 527M
Largest Countries: Egypt~116M and Turkey~87M
Egypt - high fertility, density, and 70 yr life expectancy
Turkey - Low fertility and morality
High levels of conflict and outmigration
Sub-Saharan Africa
~13% of world population
Largest Countries: Nigeria~218M, Ethiopia~123M, DR of the Congo~109M
Beset by conflict, poverty, social barriers
South + South East Asia
Population ~2.74 B ~1/3 of world population
India ~1.45 B, 4x us pop and 1/3 of space, 2.03 TFR
Indonesia ~284 M, largest muslim country in world, chain of 18,000 islands
Phillipines ~116 M people, chain of 7,000 islands, mostly catholic some muslim regions
Vietnam population doubled since vietnam war, TFR declined from 6 to 2
East Asia
Population ~1.66 B ~20% of world population
China: 1.42 B, no longer largest population, one child policy in 1979, two child in 2016, population decline began in 2022
Japan: declining population, TFR ~1.3, decline offset by high life expectancy ~84
South Korea: ~51.7 M, lowest fertility rate in the world 0.7
What social changes led to the need for Humanae vitae in the first place?
- free sexuality
- Women's rights
- progress in controlling every aspect of life
What specific questions did the document set out to address?
- what kinds of birth control are permissible?
- family planning in general and what families should look like
- what does responsible parenting look like?
What does HV identify as the components of married love?
- Fully human, stronger component of choice, will, decision, and commitment, it's sacrificial
- Procreative/fecund, open to life
- Faithful/exclusive
What constitutes responsible parenthood?
-fully aware of the obligations as parents
-man's reason should exert control on his emotions
- are you ready to have a child? socially, psychologically, economically
- following the will of God
What does HV prohibit and why?
- cannot prevent procreation, artificial birth control in particular
- no abortion
- no sterilization
What does HV allow and why?
Natural Family Planning
Birth Control
Any effort to regulate fertility, whether natural or artificial means
Natural birth control
natural family planning, regulating fertility through abstinence during fertile periods
Artificial birth control
any effort to separate acts of sexual intercourse from pregnancy
Hormonal birth control
- methods used to prevent pregnancy by manipulating hormones
- this is the most effective and least intrusive
- major development of this century
1873 - Comstock laws
Banned distribution of obscene materials including contraceptives or information about contraceptives
Progressive Era
- more interest social rather than individual problems
- more willingness to mobilize big government, business
- more rationalistic approaches to social problems
Eugenics
trying to improve the human race by regulating fertility
Margaret Sanger (1878-1966)
- Nurse with strong interest in fertility regulation
- birth control activist who coined the term
- launched publications like the woman rebel and birth control review
- founder of american birth control league
Birth Control Movement
1921 - american birth control league founded
1936 - US vs One Package
1965 - Griswold vs Connecticut
1972 - Eisenstadt v Baird
The Pill Timeline
1900's - scientists figure out that hormones play a role in fertility
1950's - a handful of scientists working separately start to figure out methods of regulating hormones for contraceptive usage
1955 - The pill is developed and passes clinical trials
1957 - enovid gets FDA approval
1960's - the pill becomes increasingly widespread
Hormonal birth control today
- A variety of methods: injections, skin patches, implants
~30% women ages 14-49 are on hormonal birth control
- highly effective though some have negative effects
Birth Control Battles
- 1930 split, anglican communion approved, pope pius XI said it was a sin
- 1963 Pope John XIII establishes 6 person pontificial commission on population, family, and birth rate
-1968 Pope rules against birth control
What are some reasons governments might want to count their people?
Taxation, military service, population resources and needs, political representation
What are some demographic features governments might want to know about their populations?
age and sex, income and employment, race and ethnicity, family structure
Counting people
- it's difficult and resource
- large, powerful, organized, and centralized state is needed to do it well
- Early examples: ancients: israel, egyptians, romans, chinese, and norman england
Ways to count people
census, vital statistics, sample surveys, administrative data, historical data
Census of Population
count of everybody, increasingly common, different strategies and information asked
The US Census
Required every 10 years per the Constitution, ~13.7 B spent, staff of ~4300
US Census Sources of Error
coverage errors, uncounted or double counted, when responses are missing or inacurate, questionable wording and respondent competency matter
Sample
a subset of a population selected for a questionnaire, should be random/representative
Major Sample Surveys
American Community Survey, Current Population Survey, National Survey of Family Growth, General Social Survey, American National Election Studies, Gallup
Census
total count of population, provides complete information about a population, extremely expensive
Vital and administrative statistics
Gives you totals of events like new events, helps track population changes, can't give you rates unless merged with other data
Sample surveys
comparatively quick and inexpensive, can be tailored to information needs, built in assumptions and uncertainties
Historical demography
Past records, graveyards, old newspapers, genealogies, lots of information gaps
Spatial demography
Can be used for studying effects of place, very specific census data
Applied demography
political campaigning, policy design, business decisions
Premodern Demographic Thought
-The Bible, Genesis 1:28
-Plato's Laws
-Roman Empire
-Christianity
-Mercantilism
-John Graunt
-Adam Smith
-Malthusianism
-Marx and Engels
The Bible, Genesis 1:28
Be fruitful and multiply
Plato's Laws (360 BC)
Population should be roughly constant, land passed through generations, quality>quantity, population controlled by migration, marriage, and infanticide
Roman Empire
Encouraged more babies, replenish army, colonize other places
chrisianity
Value both life and childless life dedicated towards god
Mercantilism
Increase in population to provide labor, think 16th-18th century, post plague
John Graunt (1620-1674)
Analyzed birth and death rates for fun, first to analyze it in a modern way, used his approach to calculate life expectancies, drew attention to how mortality varies by place
Adam Smith (1723-1790)
famous economist, applied similar thinking to demography, said people will have about as many kids as they want/can afford, natural affinity between population growth and economic growth, demand for labor -> more population
Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834)
Clergyman in Church of England, Published An Essay on the Principle of Population as it affect the Future Improvement of Society
Malthusianism Basic Principles
- Population grows geometrically
- Food supply grows arithmetically
- Thus population will outstrip food supply resulting in poverty, famine, and war
Malthusianism Proposed Solution
Moral Restraint, don't get married and have kids till you can support them, Said poor were incapable of this and welfare assistance should not happen
Why is Malthusianism Wrong?
Underestimated food supply growth, overstating inevitability of poverty, overemphasizing moral restraint, also blaming poor rather than society.
Marx and Engels
late 19th century social theorists and activists, founders of communist ideology
Marx's key doctrines
History driven by systems of material production, good part of capitalism: productive, bad part of capitalism: owners of means of production exploit workers, Goal: workers overthrow capitalists and we enter an age of material abundance and equality
Marx/Engels beef with Malthus
thought reproduction and food production were products of society, believed poverty was due to social exploitation, "overpopulation" was due to greedy capitalists
Marx/Engel's vs Malthus
both asking right questions, Marx/Engels more right than Malthus
John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)
Mid 19th century English philosopher, Split difference between Malthus and Marx
Mill's suggestions
more positive about human nature and ingenuity, food shortages could be addressed by importing food or exporting people, thought people would alter fertility based on circumstances, standard of living rises people desire different things, thought female education was key
Arsene Dumont
late 19th century french demographer, society became more equal fewer children, if social ladder to climb people will have fewer kids
Emile Durkheim
turn of century sociologist, argued more people meant more division of labor, in primitive societies everyone does mostly the same things, in advanced populous societies everyone has to find a niche
(First)Demographic Transition Theory (DTT)
Assumes societies transition from C to A
- C High mortality/fertility, everywhere else-high growth potential
- B Declining mortality/fertility, southern and eastern Europe, transitional growth
- A Low mortality/fertility, northern/western europe and US, incipient decline
Classic DTT
Trad societies have high mortality/fertility then have health advancements, industrial economies, urbanization, and mortality declines but fertility lags as norms take time to adjust
Critiques of Classic DTT
assumes populations seek stability/homeostasis, assumes modernization to mortality decline to fertility decline, it doesn't always happen is that order, assumes everywhere is the same which is not true
Expanded DTT
ideational factors, how people think about fertility
secularization, as religious influence declines, so does fertility
Rational choice theory
fertility became subject to cost benefit analysis, ag communities children were a benefit but industrial communities they were a cost
Easterlins relative cohort size hypothesis
Cohort: Age group/generation, We want the same standard of living we grew up with, Smaller cohorts will have lots of opportunities to make $$$, settle down, have kids, Larger cohorts will have fewer opportunities, will settle down later, have fewer kids, (This one didn't pan out—even small cohorts have few kids)
Second Demographic Transition(SDT)
Many places have dropped below replacement(S Korea, Spain, Taiwan, USA), increase childlessness, and birth out of wedlock, More cohabitation less marriage
What explains SDT?
extremely effective contraception, postindustrial economy, changing values, increasing education, more secularization
Morbidity
prevalence of disease
Mortality
Prevalence of death
The Big shift
from younger death due to communicative disease to later death from degenerative disease
Life expectancy does not mean...
the age at which most people die, it's an average
Hunter Gatherer Mortality
most death due to malnutrition but also geronticide or infanticide
Post ag Mortality
Plagues(Black Death, Spanish Flu), destruction of indigenous populations
The Power of Public Health
Medical advancements also helped but the largest factor was public health such as improved nutrition, better hygiene, clean water, soap, vaccines, and better understanding of disease
Two key avenues of extending life
preventing or treating causes of mortality
Oldest person on record
Jean Louise Calment 122 years
What aspects of society affect lifespan?
Public health, access to medical care, peace/prosperity
What aspects of lifestyle affect lifespan?
diet, exercise, fresh air, moderate habits, outlook on life, good social relationships
Infant mortality rate
Number of deaths in the first year of life per 1,000 births
Why might infant mortality be high?
weak immune system, malnutrition, dehydration, prematurity
Crude Death Rate (CDR)
The total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people alive in the society.
Age and Sex specific death rates(ASDR's)
ASDR = ndx/nPx*1000
What do age adjusted death rates do?
allows you to compare two places death rates without skewing due to age groups
Age Adjusted Death Rates
AADR = Sum of nSx*nMx / Sum nSx
Mortality Disparities
years of life, can come from different inputs
Mortality Disparities by Race
African Americans - high mortality, poverty, stress, violence
American Indians - high mortality
Asians - low mortality, high education, exercise
Hispanics - low mortality, hispanic paradox
Mortality by marital status
lower life expectancy for single people