Week 8 - Electoral Campaigns

Do campaigns change people’s minds?

No, because of two-step flow, partisanship and other campaigns.

Why are campaigns held?

Prisoner’s dilemma. If one side was to not campaign, then the other campaign would not be cancelled out.

Polling’s impact on campaigns

Influences campaign. Determines which issues to emphasise, and which groups to target

Change in campaign spending

Exponential increase

Fundamentals activated by campaigns

Partisanship, the economy

When do polls become less reliable?

During electoral campaigns, and when closer to election date

Issues with modern day polling

• Refusal to answer loses valuable responses

• People harder to reach with no landline phones

• Floating voters

Campaign ads impact

Can change minds, but not belief system. Motivated reasoning warps messages

What matters in campaigns?

Big events e.g. Neil Kinnock rally, Madrid 2004 bombings

Personal contracts via partisanship theory e.g. family and friends or canvassing

Social media impact on elections

• Influences public opinion

• Helps gain information on issue voting

  • Can be used to ‘hack’ elections e.g. Cambridge Analytica