Predicting the global climate and water cycle

What is climate modelling?

A computer program designed to stimulate Earth’s climate, using mathematical equations.

Why do we need climate modelling?

• projections

• make policy decisions like energy use.

What is the energy balance equation?

Energy derived from the sun.

What are the limitations of climate modelling?

• Clouds are the biggest uncertainty, can’t show water droplets.

• Have to divide them up into grid cells, in reality no boxes. They are not exact stimulations but, averages.

• No perfect model.

• Struggle with regional responses and extremes.

How has Earth System modelling developed?

• Running cheaper models

• uncertainties can be quantified but not reduced.

• attempt at representing all components of the Earth system, but can’t be achieved.