Elections and Voting (EXAM 2)

Primary Elections

In a primary the voters choose who will represent their party in the general election.  Therefore, it is an election that occurs within a party.  Primaries can take place at the federal, state, or local level. (can occur at federal, state or local level)

Closed Primaries

not allowing outside party voters; only same party can vote

Open Primaries

voters don’t have to declare party and decide what party you support at voting booth) – TEXAS has OPEN PRIMARY (EXAM)

Run-off Primaries

top 2 vote-getters have a run-off and whoever wins becomes party’s nominee; it doesn’t happen in every state (TEXAS does have this)

Blanket Primaries

you can vote in either party’s primary on an office by office basis (switch back and forth, office by office). technically no longer exist b/c ruled unconstitutional

Jungle/Cajun Primaries

for an office on a ballot, they list every single candidate (no matter the party) and if one of those candidates gets majority, that individual is the office holder (no general election)

Primaries (Primaries vs. Caucuses)

u  Usually (but not always) allow for early voting and absentee voting.

u  The voting places are open for a long time on election day.

u  They don’t require a lot of time to participate in.

u  Voters tend to not be as informed. (people who have little to no knowledge can easily show up and vote whenever)

u  The vote is secret.

Caucuses (Primaries vs. Caucuses)

u  Usually no early voting or absentee voting.

u  The voting places are typically only open during a certain time on election day.

u  Usually requires more time to participate in.

u  Voters tend to be more informed.

u  The vote is often not secret. (get into groups for which candidate you support)

The Texas Two-Step

u  In Texas (through the 2012 election), the Democrats held BOTH a primary AND a caucus when voting on their presidential nominee…this was known as the Texas Two-Step.

u  Not done anymore

u  Texas voters that voted in the Democratic Primary for president were allowed to attend the caucus meeting held in their voting precinct, which took place on election night after the polls closed.

At the caucus meetings:

u  Caucus-goers selected a chairperson and a secretary. 

u  Caucus-goers would cast their votes for which candidate they supported.

u  Caucus-goers would select delegates to represent their precinct.

u  Caucus-goers would also vote on resolutions.

General Elections

u  The general election is a contest between parties which fills a public office.

u  In most states the candidate with the most votes in the general election becomes the office holder (even if they have only a plurality of the vote, and not a majority). 

General elections are held at every level of government

Initiatives (Initiatives, Referenda, and Recall Elections)

Allow citizens to propose legislation and submit it to popular vote

Referenda (Initiatives, Referenda, and Recall Elections)

Allows the legislature to submit proposed legislation for popular approval. (citizens get to vote on it)

Recall (Initiatives, Referenda, and Recall Elections)

Allow citizens to remove someone from office. (Not allowed in TEXAS, except for local govts.)

Initiatives, referendum, and recalls are often referred to as ______

Direct Democracy

• Problems can occur with these however

Party Conventions

u  The out-of-power party holds its convention first, and the party-in-power holds its convention last. (actually gives party in power advantage; going last has slight advantage)

u  Conventions have become a week-long media extravaganzas with few surprises and tight scripts designed to emphasize party unity and consensus.

u  Delegates for both party conventions also tend to be better educated and wealthier than average Americans.

Convention Delegates

chosen in a variety of ways, based on rules enacted by each party:

• Winner-take-all

• Proportional Representation (PR)

• Sometimes at party’s delegates for a given state do not properly represent the candidate that won the state. (reason why Shay’s Rebellion led to Electoral College creation)

Winner-take-all (Convention Delegates)

Which ever candidate wins the state gets all the state’s delegates. (if your candidate wins majority/plurality; usually not democrat)

Proportional Representation (Convention Delegates)

Candidates are awarded delegates within a state according to the percentage of the popular vote they won within the state (provided they reach a minimum threshold which is usually 15%).

What is The Electoral College?

u  how we select PRESIDENT; just for GENERAL ELECTION

u  51 different elections to select president, make sure states don’t pick favorite son

Why was Electoral College created?

u  to ensure that the president was chosen intelligently and with the input of each of the states.

u  prevent the state with the largest population from electing their “favorite son”.

u  ensure that SOME (but not all) of the smaller states are a factor in each presidential election.

Provides the elite with an opportunity to override the will of the “unreasonable masses” when they vote for someone who is not qualified to be president.

The number of electors is determined by….

federal representation for each state.

u  Based on the 2020 census, Texas has 38 members of the House of Representatives and 2 Senators = 40 electoral votes.

u  Every state has AT LEAST 3 electoral votes.

u  More people = More house reps.

u  Washington D.C. also gets 3 electoral votes*.

Total Electoral Votes

u  total of 538 electoral votes. (435 + 100 + 3 (from DC))

u  270 wins the presidency.

u  increase if another state joined the country.

u  states use winner-take-all win determining which candidate wins the electoral votes for their state.

2000 Presidential Election

Al Gore won popular vote; George W. Bush won electoral college

u  Al Gore (D)

u  50,996,116 votes

u  48%

u  21 States Won (Includes D.C.)

u  266 Electoral Votes*

 

u  George W. Bush (R)

u  50,456,169 votes

u  48%

u  30 States Won

u  271 Electoral Votes

Barbara Lett-Simmons

u  “faithless” elector for D.C. that did not cast her electoral vote in the 2000 presidential election.

u  She chose not to cast her electoral vote as a protest to Washington D.C. not being a state.

u  rumors that she also refused to cast her vote to draw attention to the 537 votes that George W. Bush won Florida by. (Bush barely won Florida)

Bush v. Gore (2000)

u  The key state in the 2000 presidential election was Florida (which had 25 electoral votes).  The results were close, but Bush won Florida on the first count by approximately 1200 votes. 

u  Bush won the machine recount by approximately 537 votes (percent wise, the margin of victory in Florida was the smallest in the history of the United States at .009% of the state’s vote).

u  Then, Gore and the Democrats went to court requesting a hand recount.  The Florida Supreme Court (which was majority Democrat) said Gore was entitled to a hand recount. However, there were issues with how the court structured the hand recount.  (not a well-organized recount by Florida supreme court)

Bush v. Gore (2000) continued…

u  The case made it to the U.S. Supreme Court by early December. Supreme Court ordered Florida to halt their hand recount until it could decide the outcome of the case. 

u  felt that Gore should be allowed to have another hand recount that was done correctly.

u  time was a critical issue since each state's election results were due to the Electoral College by mid-December (mere days away). 

u  As such, the U.S. Supreme Court held that the election results where bush won Florida by 537 votes would have to stand, making Bush the winner of the popular vote of Florida and the winner of all of its electoral votes; . (EXAM)

u  this case could NOT be used as a precedent in deciding future cases that are similar.  (EXAM)

What is special about the 2016 Election?

First Presidential Election since 1808 with multiple “faithless electors” that voted against their pledged candidate (decide not to vote at all or vote for opposite party)

Hillary Clinton Results 2016

u  65,853,514 votes

u  48.2%

u  21 States Won (includes D.C.)

u  232* Electoral Votes (Actually only got 227 electoral votes due to faithless electors)

u  Collin Powel received 3 votes and Faith Spotted Eagle (a Native American activist that tried to stop the construction of the Key Stone Pipeline in South Dakota) received one vote from faithless electors in Washington state.

u  Bernie Sanders received a vote from a faithless elector in Hawaii.

Trump Results 2016

u  62,984,828 votes

u  46.1%

u  30 States Won

u  306* Electoral Votes (Actually only got 304 electoral votes due to faithless electors)

u  Kasich and Ron Paul received votes from faithless electors in Texas.

The “Blue wall” states

u  EXAM - Identify 3 states by name

u  Wisconsin.

u  Michigan.

u  Pennsylvania

The “Blue wall” states and Clintons Loss

u  Hillary Clinton lost the election in part because she lost 3 states in her “blue wall” (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) that she did not expect to lose.

u  Clinton did not campaign in Wisconsin after the primaries because she felt the state was safely Democrat.

The margin of victory for Trump in these 3 states was relatively small

Other Factors that influenced the 2016 election:

u  Much has been made about the polling being off, resulting in Trump’s surprising victory.  However, for the most part, the polling that was done was fine.

u  Trump’s ability to put complex issues into short phrases helped him win.

u  Trump’s mastery of social media like twitter helped him win.

u  How much of an impact did the “Comey Effect” have on the election?

u  James Comey (Head of FBI)

u  What impact did “fake news” have on the election?l

u  Stormy Daniels Impact

u  What role did Russia, WikiLeaks, and others play in the outcome of the election?

u  What impact did Bernie Sanders’ voters and third-party voters have on the election outcomes?

u  What impact did white blue-collar workers (labor force) and the “Obama coalition” have?.

How much of an impact did the “Comey Effect” have on the election?

u  James Comey (Head of FBI) – FBI was investigating Hillary Clinton publicly (supposed to during elections). James Comey thought that this would look bad for FBI, so he acknowledged that Hillary was being investigated and there was no need do indict her. Negatively affected Hillary Clinton campaign. Trump supporters also had FISA investigations due to possible collusion with Russia.

What impact did “fake news” have on the election?

people say wildest things to get views just to get more money from the product they are trying to sell

Stormy Daniels Impact

adult film star had affair with Trump, and she got paid to stay quiet by Trump supporters

What role did Russia, WikiLeaks, and others play in the outcome of the election?

Russia and WikiLeaks dumped information that hurt Hillary (Democrats) by suppressing Democratic votes

What impact did Bernie Sanders’ voters and third-party voters have on the election outcomes?

Upset Bernie Sanders voters (b/c he wasn’t taken seriously) decided to not vote in general election

What impact did white blue-collar workers (labor force) and the “Obama coalition” have?

Blue collar workers migrated to Republican side and voted for Trump. Obama coalition people (Hispanics, low-income people, college students) did not like Hillary very much because she did not support their interests and that fact that she was Bill Clinton’s wife.

Electoral College Reform

u  A bill has been introduced in almost every session of Congress calling for the abolition of the Electoral College, but no bill has ever passed.

u  Historically there have been 3 basic reform ideas:

u  1) Abolish the Electoral College

u  2) Congressional District Plan

u  3) Keep the College, Abolish the Electors.

A fourth idea has been floating around recently that blends the popular vote nationwide into the Electoral College.

1) Abolish the Electoral College

A bill being passed to abolish Electoral College is a political stunt b/c it won’t accomplish anything b/c it will be found unconstitutional since you would have to amend the constitution (incredibly difficult). If election is based on popular votes.

2) Congressional District Plan

(Maine and Nebraska currently do this). – See who (candidates) wins the popular vote in each district and get 1 electoral vote per district. Whoever wins majority of electoral votes gets two from senate. Do not have to amend US Constitution and only must amend state constitution (easier to implement). Democrats would win more in this scenario

3) Keep the College, Abolish the Electors

 Would require amending US Constitution (difficult). Still have Electoral College but abolish electors. Republicans don’t want to do this. Abolishing electors would not have a large impact.

A fourth idea has been floating around recently that blends the popular vote nationwide into the Electoral College

50 states and DC agree that whichever candidate wins popular vote nationwide, the individual states would commit all electors to popular vote winner. Do not have to amend the constitution. Republicans would not support this

Congressional Elections

u  In Congressional elections (especially for the U.S. House):

u  candidates tend to be less visible and receive little media coverage.

u  most candidates are, or were, state legislators. (financially easy to become state legislator; stepping stone for U.S. House)

u  name recognition is often the most important battle of the campaign. 

The Incumbency Advantage

incumbents – people who currently hold office and seeking re-election

u  Incumbency is often an electoral advantage because:

u  They are highly visible in the district. (want to be visible in home district)

u  They have easy access to local media.

u  They speak frequently at events and meetings.

Incumbents also have…

u  $750,000 to run an office in the U.S. House.

u  The franking privilege. (free mass-mailing for govt. purposes; use this advantage to send out free postage)

u  Constituency service. (constituents are individuals you represent in your district)

Who Votes?

u  Income – people with higher incomes have a higher tendency to vote.

u  Age – older people tend to vote more often than younger people.

u  Gender – Since 1980, women have a higher tendency to vote for Democrats than Republicans.

u  Race – in general, whites tend to vote more regularly than African-Americans and Hispanics (this may be due to income and education, not race).

Trends in Graph of midterm vs presidetial election over the years

1830 – switch in turnout rate of presidential vs midterm elections. Post 1830 – higher turnout in presidential election. Past 100 years, there was a significant drop in both presidential and midterm turnout. EXAM

Why is Voter Turnout so Low?

u  Voter turnout is the U.S. is the lowest in the industrialized world for a variety of reasons:

u  People say they are too busy.

u  It is difficult to register.

u  Difficulty of absentee voting.

u  The number of elections. (legit excuse - too many options create confusion)

u  Voter attitudes.

u  Weak political parties.

u  The timing of presidential primaries.

u  The fact that some states are not battle-ground states in presidential elections.

u  Disenfranchisement.