Lecture 17: The Green Revolution

what is the context of the post-war period?

global conflict with enormous racial dimensions

did not reduce world population despite 60 million dead→ many lives saved due to antibiotics, DDT, and other innovations that the war helped to provoke

followed by the creation of the UN, and by dismantling/disintegration of colonial empires

emergence of Cold War

Borlaug is the ____ and Vogt is the ____

wizard, prophet

what was Vogt’s argument?

environmental degradation would reinforce the poverty of the developing world and make people more likely to embrace communism

Neo-Malthusianism

the re-discovery of Malthusian ideas, colored by a strong eugenicist sentiment

concerned with the quantity of people: that population may explode

concerned with the quality of the people: that “inferior” peoples may expand in number faster than “superior” ones

Hugh Moore’s Population bomb

population growth would cause poverty which would cause communism

population politics in the 1950s intensified amongst fears of

population growth and its connection to poverty and communism

development provides a way of thinking about issues of

race and eugenics

developmnet was seen as a way to

reduce mortality, reduce poverty, generating market activity (way of advancing US trade), convenient way of putting out the racial dimensions of earlier debates of population (can be talked about as development)

modernization theory

economies go through stages of growth, ultimately leading to a stage of development that resembles Western industrialized nations

what were Rostow’s stages of development?

traditional society, transitional stage, take off, drive to maturity, high mass consumption

the stages of modernization was seen as

inevitable

what were the goals of the Green Revolution?

increase productivity/yields of basic food crops

feed a growing population in the Global South

promote broader modernization/development agenda to contain communist bloc

The Green Revolution dates

began in the 1940s and took off in the 1960s

The Green Revolution

it was about plant selection→ technologies that would identify strains that had desirable traits to create new seeds

package of agricultural technologies that included improved seeds, fertilizer, tractors, etc

variety vs species

species- corn, wheat, etc.

varieties- different forms of the species

high-yield crop varieties

refers to genetically improved plant strains that produce significantly more food than traditional varieties, enhancing agricultural productivity

what was Borlaug trying to find in Mexico?

varieties of wheat found in different parts of Mexico with different traits to create seeds that could be planted by Mexican farmers

what was the overarching method of the Green Revolution for seeds?

gather germplasm from gene-rich countries

study it, hybridize it, develop “improved” varieties

Third World regions are original sources of the crops that make. up95.7% of world harvest

CGIAR

network of international research centers. that coordinated the global effort to find and collect strains of crops to subject them to scientific analysis and breeding

what was the effect of the “early Green Revolution”

increased agricultural productivity in Latin America and Asia especially where irrigation or reliable rainfall were found

mostly for maize, wheat, and rice

HYVs accounted for 21% of growth and 17% of production growth

in the early “Green Revolution,” HYV accounted only for 21% of total growth and 17% of production growth, what accounted for the rest of the growth?

area expansion was 20% of production growth

the rest was “intensification of input use” (fertilizers, pesticides, tractors, irrigation, etc)

where was the focus of the “early” Green Revolution?

Latin American and Asia

where was the focus of the “late” Green Revolution?

extended to Africa and Middle East

what were the effects of the “late” Green Revolution?

yield growth accounted for 86% of increases in food production in the developing world

HYVs accounted for 50% of yield growth and 40% of production growth

sub-Saharan Africa’s increases were based almost entirely on extending the area under cultivation

who produced the fertilizers and seeds used in the Green Revolution in the developing world?

corporations in the developed world; profitable market

what would have happened if the Green Revolution didn’t happen?

yields in developing countries would have been 19.5-23.5% lower

overall prices would have been 35-66% higher

calories intake in developing countries would have been 13.3-14.4% lower

who benfited from the Green Revolution?

consumers→ they had lower food prices

farmers whose yields went up more than prices went down for their crops (farmers who could afford the Green Revolution package)

farmers who subsist on their own crops

who lost from the Green Revolution?

farmers in general because they did not have access/could not afford the whole package

what are the issues with the Green Revolution?

barriers to entry are high— only capitalized farms can benefit and persist

the barriers only rise further over time: rising productivity depresses prices, pushing more still farms out of business

how were seeds commodified?

seeds were hybridized, which interrupts the seed’s natural self-reproduction and requires farmers to purchase new seeds each planting season

engineered sterility: seeds whose next generation won’t produce a crop

differentiation

development of inputs that farmers have to buy that replace what farmers could do themselves (their labor)

what happened to the percentage of labor and capital over the period of 1870-1976?

constant capital increases while labor decresaes

labor productivity growth has been faster due to high rate of capitalization

produce more but make less

true or false: agriculture is the most capital intensive sector in the economy

true

differentiation creates a situation where the farmer is no longer in charge and

has to become a customer to buy inputs to increase production

what are the downsides of the inputs of the Green Revolution?

chemical inputs are self-reinforcing necessity- the more you use, the more you need

tries to homogenize agriculture and provide a one-size-fits all model that is indifferent to local conditions and people

turns agriculture into a type of industrial production

genetic erosion

the technological treadmill

competition→ adoption of technological innovations→ temporary advantages for some→ more competition

genetic erosion

modern varieties will cross-pollinate with local varieties, and if the modern varieties win out it can drive local varieties out of existence

what are the results of genetic erosion?

loss of diversity and variability at many scales (in fields, in regions, and internationally)

Sauer’s letter to the Rockefeller foundation

a communication that emphasized the importance of preserving crop genetic diversity for sustainable agriculture

Green Revolution was a terrible idea

The Demographic Transition

the overall rate of population growth will increase when the death rate decreases

the birth rate will also eventually drop leading to a decrease in population growth leading to a new rate of population growth

why was it believed that economic progress would solve population issues?

transition multiplier

a factor that represents how changes in fertility and mortality rates influence population growth during the demographic transition process

end population/population before transition

chronological age-linked succession of death

older people die first

true or false: chronological age-linked succession of death was always true

false (not always true especially when child mortality was high)

people have fewer children when they

become more economically prosperous

how do decisions made change when child mortality decreases?

families provide children with education, healthcare, and resources to improve their future prospects; also has implications for how many children parents have

a key piece of development that impacts long term decisions is

declining child mortality

what are the steps of the demographic transitoin?

step 1- declining mortality

step 2- declining fertility (contraception, decrease in want of children)