Chapter 12 - Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Arab-Israeli conflict

Nuclear Deterrence (key IR concept)

Threat of nuclear strike deters enemies from attacking

Mutually-Assured destruction (key IR concept)

If two opposing sides possess nuclear weapons, the guarantee that both sides will be annihilated in case of war actually lessens likehood of war

Security Dilemma (key IR concept)

Not knowing their opponents’ true intensions and fearing the worst, states prepare for war

Conflict Spiral (key IR concept)

Each side interprets the other side’s defensive actions as offensive, leading to escalation

Arms Racing (key IR concept)

As each side improves its weaponry technology and capabilities, the other side is motivated to do the same

Weapons of Mass Destruction - WMD (key IR concept)

Nuclear, chemical (deadly agents), and biological (deathly pathogens) weapons

WMD in the Conflict - Israel

• 1952 - Launched its nuclear weapons program

• 1968-1970 - Possessed a bomb

• 1950-1960s - Launched chemical and biological warfare programs

WMD in the Conflict - Egypt

• 1963-1967 war - Used chemical weapons against Yemen during its intervention in Yemeni Civil War

WMD in the Conflict - Iraq

• 1980-1988 war - Used chemical weapons against Iran

• 1988 - Bombed Iraqi Kurds with nerve gas

WMD in the Conflict - Iran

• 1980-1988 war - Used chemical weapons against Iraq

WMD in the Conflict - Syria

• Has used chemical weapons in rebel-lead areas during its civil war

Nuclear Deterrence (Beres)

• Classic nuclear deterrence argument

  • Israel’s nuclear weapons represent an impediment to their actual use and to the commencement of regional nuclear war (Beres)

• Should the region disarm?

  • “If deprived of its nuclear forces because of misconscieved hopes for regional cooperation, the jewish state could become vulnerable to overwhelming attacks” (Beres)

    • —> SECURITY DILEMMA

  • Even if the ME became a nuclear-free zone, many states possess advanced conventional, chemical and biological weaponry

Ambiguous deterrence - Israel

• Israel had declared that it “will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons in the ME”

• Nuclear ambiguity

  • Israel has never admitted to possessing nuclear weapons

  • It is an undeclared nuclear state

  • To avoid triggering a WMD arms race in ME

• By 1980s - Israel had developed smaller, tactical (“sublikoton”) nuclear weapons

  • Could deter specific enemy’s actions, a “nuanced and graduated forms of nuclear reprisal” (Beres)

Has Israeli deterrence worked?

• 1973 - Egypt launches war vs. Israel

  • But limits its strategic objectives to retaking Sinai

• 1991 - Iraq, facing massive US-led coalition attack after 1990 Kuwait invasion

  • Launches 40 SCUD surface-to-surface missiles at Israel to draw it into conflict

  • Israel holds its fire

• Can be understood in different ways

  • Cases where deterrence worked because attacks were limited

  • Or deterrence failures, because attacks occurred

Cold War rivalry - Israel vs. USSR

• By 1970s - Israel jets had enough range to hit USSR

• By 1980S - Israel missiles could target southern USSR

• Israeli deterrence

  • aimed directly at Soviets during Cold War to ensure USSR would restrain its clients (Samson Option)

• Soviets alos had missiles pointing at Isra

Salm

Israel’s nuclear futility? (Maoz)

• 1 - No evidence Arab States are preparing for '“catastrophic war”

• 2 - No evidence that Israeli nuclear capability had deterred Arab states from initiating more limited wars

• 3 - No evidence that Israeli nuclear weapons affected Arab inclinations to make peace

• Israeli nuclear

Israel - as the sole regional nuclear power

• 7 July 1981 - Israeli jets destroyed the Iraqi Osirak nuclear reactor in Syria

• September 2007 - Israeli jets destroyed a nuclear reactor in Syria

• 2010-2013 - Israel assassinated several Iranian nuclear scientists

  • Set off an explosion at an Iranian missile base

  • Released a computer virus (“Stuxnet worm”) to disrupt Iranian

Israel-Palestine and Nuclear weapons

Iran’s nuclear program - timeline

• 1950s-1970s - Iran explored possibility of a nuclear program

• 1990s-2000 - Iranian nuclear program, ballistic missiles programs advanced

• 2015 - Obama admin arranges multilateral nuclear deal

  • Iran agrees to halt nuclear development

• 2018 - Trump withdraws from agreement

• 2024 - Iran could be weeks/months away from nuclear weapons

Israeli airstrikes on Iran - 26/10/2024