Boring Hierarchy

Compliance/Implementation Assumption:

Action/Plan → Predicted Outcome

Trigger Words: "requires," "will implement," "should adopt," "plan to"
Most Boring Assumption: "They'll actually do it"
Example: "Install cameras → crime decreases" → Assume: "Cameras will actually be installed/maintained"
Why Most Boring: If they don't DO it, nothing else matters.

No-Other-Factors Assumption:

Correlation → Causation (temporal sequence)

Trigger Words: "after," "since," "coincided with," "during this period"
Most Boring Assumption: "Nothing else explains it"
Example: "X happened, then Y → X caused Y" → Assume: "No other changes occurred"
Why Most Boring: Most obvious attack is "something else changed."

Reverse-Causation Blocker:

Correlation → Causation (ongoing relationship)

Trigger Words: "associated with," "linked to," "correlates with"
Most Boring Assumption: "Y doesn't cause X"
Example: "X and Y happen together → X causes Y" → Assume: "Y doesn't cause X"
Why Most Boring: Most obvious alternative is reverse causation.

Conditional Reversal Assumption:

All A are B. C is B. Therefore C is A.

Trigger Words: "all," "every," "any," "if-then" structure
Most Boring Assumption: "All B are A" (the reverse is true)
Example: "All dogs bark. My pet barks. So my pet is a dog." → Assume: "All barking animals are dogs"
Why Most Boring: Only way the conclusion follows.

Representativeness Assumption:

This group → All groups

Trigger Words: "survey found," "study shows," "poll indicates"
Most Boring Assumption: "This group is typical"
Example: "Harvard students support X → All students support X" → Assume: "Harvard students represent all students"
Why Most Boring: Most obvious attack is "this group is weird."

Comparability Assumption:

Works in Case A → Will work in Case B

Trigger Words: "similarly," "likewise," "just as," "by analogy"
Most Boring Assumption: "A and B are comparable"
Example: "Tax cut helped Texas → Will help California" → Assume: "Texas and California have similar economies"
Why Most Boring: Most obvious attack is "they're different."

Truthfulness/Validity Assumption:

Survey/Study → Conclusion

Trigger Words: "reported," "claimed," "stated," "according to"
Most Boring Assumption: "They're telling the truth"
Example: "80% said they'll vote → Candidate will win" → Assume: "People will vote as they said"
Why Most Boring: If they lie, data is useless.