4.6 - Evaluating Public Opinion Data (Perusall)

What is “horse race” news coverage/journalism?

It’s a type of coverage when the media reports ONLY the competitive aspects of political campaigns, like who’s ahead or behind in the polls isntead of discussing issues/policies

What is the bandwagon effect?

It’s a shift of support to a candidate or position that HOLDS THE LEAD in a public opinion poll.

How might the House of Representatives use information presented in public opinion polls?

Well, since they face re-election every two years, they may try to represent those views to gain popularity and therefore win re-election.

What is the bully pulpit?

It’s when someone uses their power (like being the president, a congressment) to gain popularity through various sources like the news, television, or rallies.

What is candidate error?

It’s the percentage point difference in the polls’s estimate and the candidate’s actual share of the vote AFTER an election.

What are two factors that explain why polls may be inaccurate and unreliable?

Through the biases (such as social desirability bias), the bradley effect, and a non-response bias.

What is social desirability bias?

It’s a type of bias that happens when people tell the pollsters or a poll what it WANTS to hear.

For example, the respondents may give an interviewer the impression that they will indeed vote, because they do not want to be seen as lazy or uninformed. It’s basically when voters give a socially accepted response.

What is the Bradley effect?

It’s a phenomenon where African American candidates receive fewer votes than polling suggests due to societal biases.

What is the non-response bias? What does it lead to in terms of getting a winner of an election?

It’s when certain individuals choose not to participate in a survey. Since they don’t respond in a particular way—or at all—, they may largely vote Republican when the polls predicted the opposite.