Madman Theory

Who created Madman Theory?

Richard Nixon

What is Madman theory?

If another actor believe that you are willing to do anything, they are more likely to make consessions or be deterred from acting in the first place due to your unpredictability

Who distinguished between types of madness?

Roseanne McManus

What are 4 types of “madness”

• Rational with extreme preferences vs deviations from rationality

• situational madness vs dispositional madness

What are advantages of situational madness

• more credible as actor may be willing to take extreme actions in certain circumstances (threat of putin using nuclear weapons if backed into a corner)

• allows actor to remain a broader reputation for rationality which helps to protect valuable alliances

• allows for more targeted use rather than just gaining reputation for general ‘madness’ which might undermine its effectiveness

Advantages of rational ‘madness’

• allows other states to view your ideas as predictable - if you entirely unpredictable then there little reason to try and placate you

• allows to maintain domestic support as you have a clear goal - irrationality is not welcomed by your own citizens

Risks of employing ‘madman theory’

• being seen as genuinely mad - unreliable partner who states will not trust to enter into and respect international agreements = loss of overall credibility

• Madman has to do ‘mad things’ to maintain the effect - act ceases to be effective if other actors see though act

• Becomes less effective over times as other actors adapt to your approach