ENV199 Week 5 - Future Challenges & Debates

Rayan, Stephanie, and Ava

Gap Between Rhetoric and Reality

Many countries are creating new NDCs, but ambition without action makes them meaningless; emissions must fall before 2030 to stay under 1.5°C.

NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution)

National climate targets under the Paris Agreement, including emission goals, renewable plans, and conditional commitments.

Mitigation Opportunities

Solar and wind technologies are scalable and affordable; progress limited by policy and governance barriers.

Current Global Emissions

2023 global emissions: 57.1 GtCO₂e; power (15.1 Gt), transport (8.4 Gt), agriculture (6.5 Gt), industry (6.5 Gt).

G20 Responsibility

G20 produces 77% of emissions; G20 + African Union = 82%.

Net-Zero Pledges

101 parties (~82% of global GHGs) pledged net-zero; only 28 have enacted these pledges into law.

Emissions Gap

2030 gap to <2°C: 14 GtCO₂e; to 1.5°C: 22 GtCO₂e — delays increase difficulty and lock-in risk.

Temperature Projections

Current policies → 3.1°C; conditional NDCs + net-zero → 1.9°C by 2100.

Carbon Budget

Remaining 2024 carbon budget: ~900 GtCO₂ (<2°C) and ~200 GtCO₂ (1.5°C).

Mitigation Investment

Global investment must increase sixfold ($0.9–2.1 trillion/year) to achieve targets.

Sectoral Mitigation Potentials

Power (solar/wind) ~27–38%; Forestry ~20%; Transport & Buildings through electrification and efficiency.

Implementation Gap

The shortfall between pledges and actions — mainly political, not technical.

Techno-Economic Potential

2030 = 31 Gt; 2035 = 41 Gt reductions possible with existing technology.

Finance and Equity

Developing nations need greater financial and technological support for fair transitions.

Blame in Climate Change

People often focus on assigning blame rather than solutions; can motivate or alienate.

Fossil Fuel Companies

Top 100 producers cause 70% of emissions; top 20 (led by Saudi Aramco) produce one-third.

Exxon’s Misinformation

Knew about climate risks since the 1970s but funded disinformation to protect profits.

Rich Individuals’ Impact

Richest 10% consume 20× more energy than poorest 10%; frequent flying, luxury lifestyles increase emissions.

Pandemic Insight

2020 lockdowns cut emissions 17% (to 2006 levels), proving lifestyle change alone isn’t enough.

Global North vs Global South

Rich countries caused the crisis; developing nations face its harshest effects.

Lula da Silva Quote

Developing nations shouldn’t bear equal burdens when fighting a problem caused by the rich.

Mia Mottley Quote

“We are not the ones who caused this problem, yet we are on the frontline of its consequences.”

Media Bias

Western climate impacts dominate headlines while disasters in developing nations get less coverage.

Individual Responsibility

Saying “we are all responsible” can mask the accountability of powerful actors.

Systemic Accountability

Blame should target structural systems—fossil fuel industries, wealthy elites, and policy failures.

Greta Thunberg

Called out world leaders for sacrificing future generations for profit at the 2019 WEF.

Final Takeaway

Climate blame is multi-layered, but systemic reform and accountability matter more than guilt.

Climate Action Tracker (CAT)

Independent group tracking national climate progress and 2035 NDC targets.

2035 Climate Targets

Only 11 of 40 tracked countries have submitted NDCs; UK is closest to a 1.5°C-aligned pathway.

2030 Targets

Critical decade for halving emissions; without action now, net-zero by 2050 is impossible.

Global Emissions Share

CAT countries = 85% of global emissions; 68% from nations yet to submit 2035 NDCs.

Projected Warming

Current trajectory: 2.7°C by 2100, far above Paris goals.

Main Gaps

Weak political momentum, unclear accounting, and overreliance on carbon markets and land sinks.

Article 6

Framework for trading emission reductions between nations or firms; risk of overuse as a loophole.

Recommendations

Strengthen both 2030 & 2035 targets, ensure transparency in finance, separate cuts from removals.

Renewable Energy Growth

Clean energy investment now doubles fossil fuel investment for the first time.

Consequences of Overshoot

Overshooting 1.5°C risks irreversible ecosystem and social damage.

Urgency for Action

Only one of eleven nations is near 1.5°C; next 1–2 years before COP30 are crucial.