Evidence - P1

FPTP

What shows FPTP prevents extremist parties from gaining a platform?

• 2010 BNP won 2% - would have won 13 seats under PR

Without concentrated levels of support in constituencies, small pockets of BNP support too thinly spread to gain representation 

Legitimate platform would enable extremism to become normalised in mainstream UK politics

News/media exposure would perpetuate the recognition

What shows PR enables extremist parties to have a platform?

EU nations using PR have seen rise of right-wing

• Nationalist governments in Hungary and Italy

• Prominent parties such as ADF (Germany) and National Rally (France)

What shows that FPTP stabilises UK politics through attracting moderate supporters?

Larger centre parties absorb popular policies from smaller parties such as Green Party and UKIP  

• 2010 Con “Vote blue get Green” 

• 2017 Lab Green New Deal  

FPTP stabilises UK politics, Lab-Con are ‘broad church’ (c-left and c-right) aiming to maximise support by attracting moderate ‘swing voters’ to win a majority    

What shows that FPTP leads to two-party system?

• Every post-war gov was Lab or Con except 2010 coalition 

• Every official opposition has been Lab or Con 

This is despite the combined vote share for the two main parties declining (2024 – 55%) yet their sear share remains dominant.

FTPT results appear binary

Perceived lack of choice contributed to tactical voting – choosing ‘least bad’ option. ‘Vote-lending’ or ‘negative voting’ undermines democratic representation

What shows that extremist parties game the FPTP system?

2019 Brexit Party chose only to stand in Labour-held constituencies – tacit support for “Get Brexit Done” led it to target Labour’s chances

The most extreme parties might (openly) decide to ‘game’ or manipulate the system

What is the concerning trend with extremist parties in UK politics?

FPTP also may catapult extremist parties into power

• 2024 Lab-Con ~50% vote share

• Rise of Green Party and Reform UK has fractured the left and right

Extremism may benefit from winner’s bonus

What shows small swings produce drastically different results?

2024 destroyed safe seats - 1 in 5 seats won by <5% margin 

• Mid Sussex = significant Lib-Dem win – was Conservative safe seat for 50 years 

2019 fall of the red wall – Labour lost 36 Leave-voting seats (voting focused on single issue Brexit) 

• ‘Beast of Bolsover’ Dennis Skinner (Labour) lost his seat of 49 years by ~11% vote share

Small swings in voting behaviour in plurality systems produce dramatically different results - “Kick the Bastards out” - one commentator 

What shows that under PR systems small swings make little change to the overall outcome?

In Scotland, Wales and Germany election outcomes have led to the dominance of a party over several decades 

• Angela Merkel – Chancellor of Germany for 16 years (2005-21) despite her party only averaging ~36% vote share 

Under PR systems small swings make relatively little change to the overall outcome 

What shows safe seats are safe for a reason?

Safe seats are safe for a reason  

• MPs win with majorities of 20,000-40,000+ votes – vote shares often above 55-65% 

Strongest mandate as they have most support in the country 

• Liverpool Walton – Labour safe seat and 2024 won 70% vote share 

• National turnout ~67% 2019 and ~60% 2024 but constituency turnout in safe seats higher – turnout not a problem   

Safe seats do not mean voter apathy. Voters repeatedly re-elect representatives because they are known and trusted and deliver local representation 

What shows that safe seats are viewed as less valuable?

Approximately 2/3 of seats considered ‘safe’  

• Hemsworth, West Yorkshire – held by Labour since 1918 

• Windsor – held by Conservatives since 1880s 

~150 marginal seats (swing seats) - these decide the outcome of the election – thus votes in safe seats appear less valuable  

What shows that votes are wasted?

Millions of wasted votes:

‘Excessive votes’ (votes beyond the required number to win seat)

• Labour’s 22,000 majority in Bootle, Liverpool

‘Redundant votes’ (votes to losing candidates)

• 2024 Reform UK came second in over 90 seats

Votes in marginal seats are more valuable than safe seats

What shows FPTP ensures majority, leading to stability?

• In 45 years and 12 elections only 2 have failed to produce an overall majority.  

• 2 produced a slim majority of under 12 seats. 

• The average majority size is 80 seats 

Under fully PR system this would not occur – no party since 1945 has received 50% of the vote 

This means FPTP allows the new government to form quickly, power transfers smoothly and efficiently – helps stabilise politics and financial markets  

What shows PR systems lack democratic mandate due to coalition governments?

Without clear winners, formation of govs can take months or years to form coalitions – often weak, unstable and collapse 

• Belgium twice took 500+ days to form a gov (2010 & 2019)  

• Germany took 7 months (2017)  

‘Backroom deals’, ‘horse-trading policies’ which lack democratic mandate. 

8-party coalition in Belgium excluded two largest parties  

What shows overrepresentation in FPTP?

Over-representation 

• No post-war government has ever won over 50% of the popular vote 

• 2024 Labour 33% vote for 63% seats (lowest % vote share to gain majority on record)  

• Typicality = 2015 Conservative 36% vote for 51% seats  

A plurality system produces ‘winners' bonus’ or ‘landslide effect’ - multiplied across 650 seats produces over-representation and under-representation of parties nationally 

Undermines the democratic legitimacy of the government – weakening their mandate

What shows underrepresentation in FPTP system?

Under-representation 

• 2024 Reform UK 14% vote for 5 seats (0.6%) 

• Vs Lib Dems 12% vote for 72 seats (11% seats) 

Pluralism restricted in UK democracy – undermines representation 

How representative was 2024 general election?

Electoral Reform Society - 2024 results “least representative ever”

14% MPs elected with majority support

Over 40% of seats won with under 40% of votes

Only 42% of UK voters endorsed their current MP

Only 57% voters backed Labour or the Conservatives

82% of votes won by the two main parties

Took 24,000 votes to elect Labour MP, 485,000 for Green MP and 823,000 for Reform UK MP

Turnout was just under 60% - second lowest ever since 1918

Labour gov endorsed by 1/5 of the electorate

How did Labour benefit in 2024 general election?

Labour won 34% of votes but 63% of seats - lowest vote share ever recorded

Impact of Reform - divided non-Labour support

Tactical voting - anti-Tory voters

Labour vote share rose 2% nationally but average of 6% in seats where it was second in 2019

Won once-safe Tory seats like Congleton and Macclesfield

Overall majority of 172 seats - second largest since 1945 - 2x Conservative majority in 2019

How did Reform UK lose out in 2024 general election?

Reform UK won 14% of votes but 0.8% of seats

Green Party won more southern seats than reform despite winning far fewer southern votes

How did Liberal Democrats benefit in 2024 general election?

Liberal Democrats won 2% fewer votes than Reform but 10% more seats

Tactical voting - Lib-Dem support rose by 1% nationally but average 9% in seats second to the Tories in 2019 = gained over 60 Conservative seats

How did the SNP lose out in 2024 general election?

SNP won 30% of Scottish vote share but just 16% of Scottish seats

Labour won 35% of Scottish vote share but 65% of Scottish seats

Tactical voting by anti-SNP voters

How does FPTP prevent hung parliament and facilitate regime change?

FTPT prevented hung parliament in 2024 - as done in all but 3 of 22 GE since 1945

Isiah Berlin = “kick the rascals out”

FPTP facilitated electorates wish for ‘clean break’ from the Conservatives

Andrew Marr = “national catharsis”

NI GE 2020 (STV):

Fine Gael governing party vote share fell by 5% and Sinn Fein rose by 10% - Sinn Fein most popular party

BUT Finn Gael became part of new coalition government and Sinn Fein remained in opposition

How does FPTP allow swift regime change?

Polling closed eve 4th July 2024 & Labour took office afternoon 5th July 2024

Dutch GE 2023 (party list version PR) = 8 months for new coalition government to be officially confirmed

How does FPTP offer stability?

Five Tory PMs in 6 years = not strong and stable gov

BUT Starmer big majority, Andrew Marr = “new chapter…of settled, orderly governance”

2024 French Assembly elections produced 2 months of deadlock and fragile outcome

How does FPTP marginal minor parties?

Labour vote share 10% greater than nearest opponents - FPTP ensured most popular party governed

2021 Scottish Parliament elections (AMS)

SNP won 44% of vote share and 20% more votes than nearest rival BUT denied majority of seats and pushed in coalition with Scottish Greens (5th in overall support and 5% of votes)

How does FPTP hold individual MPs accountable?

Former PM Lizz Truss ousted

Under closed party list system (soon to be used in Welsh Senedd), big beasts tend to have top list rankings and much higher chance of survival