Short term/ individual determinants of voting behaviour

mainly evidence

Valence/ Governing competence INFLUENCE

• Britain’s recent general elections have been decided by valence factors

• Cameron and conservatives victory in 2015 was a result of economic victory since 2010

• Labours landslide in 2024 owed more to conservatives incompetence in managing economy

Valence/ Governing competence- LIMITED INFLUENCE

• In 1992 the conservatives won the general election despite having been in power during an economic recessive

Rational choice/ Issue voting - INFLUENCE

• In 2019 the issue of Brexit dominated the election, many loyal labour switched to conservatives as they thought that they would ‘get Brexit done’

• 1979 ‘winter of discontent’- economic turmoil paired with a harsh winter helped get thatcher into power

Rational choice/ Issue voting -LIMITED INFLUENCE

• In 2005 Iraq led to a large loss in support for labour but they still won the election.

Leadership - INFLUENCE

• In 2014, an image of Ed Miliband eating a bacon sarnie derailed his UK political career as it made him seen as a less credible Prime Minister

• In 1997 Blair was very popular so landslide, this decreased when his image became tarnished by Iraq

• Thatcher’s right to buy and Falklands cemented the image of ‘the iron lady’

• Sturgeon was high in public approval ratings so in 2015, won 56/59 seats

Leadership - LIMITED INFLUENCE

• In 1979, Labours, James Callaghan lead by 20% over Maggie T in the popularity polls but he still lost the election

• In 2010, Nick Clegg was the most popular of party leaders but the party’s vote share fell and they lost 5 seats

• Kier Starmer is not seen as a popular leader but he still won the election → compare with Corbyn

Party Image - INFLUENCE

• In 2005, Cameron became the conservative leader and his strategy was largely devoted to detoxifying the party’s image→ he tried to make it more attractive to minority voters which contributed to the 5% swing from labour to conservative in 2010

• In 2024, many think that labour was elected less due to support for them but because they were avoiding a conservative leadership

Party Image- LIMITED INFLUENCE

• In 2017, May’s election campaign was weak and had no positive plans for the future and Corbyn has a stronger, more passionate manifesto, May still won

Campaigns- INFLUENCE

• In 2017, Jeremy Corbyn’s rallies and popular manifesto commitments contrasted with Theresa May’s uninspiring campaign appearance → Labour increased its support from less than 30% of the vote at the beginning of the campaign to 40% in the general election

Campaigns- LIMITED INFLUENCE

• Although it was praised by the media, labour’s television friendly 1987 campaign hardly dented Maggie T’s political domination as she returned to parliament with a 102 seat majority

• In 2019, the conservatives ran a more effective campaign by relentlessly focusing on Brexit but during the campaign, polls hardly changed, suggesting that most voters knew how they were going to vote before the election

Manifestos and Policies - INFLUENCE

• In 2019. Johnsons ‘get Brexit done’ slogan lead to a boost in the vote share among the leave voters to nearly ¾ (74%) while labour actually reduced its vote share of remain voters to just under half (49%)

• In 2017, May’s dementia tax contributed to her loss of a parliamentary majority

Manifestos and Policies - LIMITED INFLUENCE

• In 1992, 2017 and 2019, labours policies were more popular than conservative but conservatives still won

• 2017, Mays dementia tax & poor manifesto should have cost her the election, especially as Corbyn was very popular, but she still won