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why are exchange rates important
International Trade
Investment opportunities to global financial markets
Investments to economies abroad (FDIs, productive investments)
fiscal stance of national economies
spot forex market
when a transaction is agreed between two parties and the payment of
the one currency and delivery of the other takes place on the same day
forward forex market
when a transaction is agreed today between two parties and the
payment and delivery of the currency takes place at some agreed time in the future
base currency
the currency the value of which is expressed in units of
“quote currency
Bid
FI/Bank (buy)
clients (sell)
ASK
FI/Bank (sell)
clients (buy)
foreign exchange cross rate
all exchange rates in the wholesale market quoted
against USD (called primary rates)
law of one price
In frictionless markets, two securities/assets that have equal cash flows must have the same price
arbitrage + shopping around.
generate an excess supply of the overpriced asset and an excess demand
for the underpriced asset, moving the prices of these two assets toward
each other
Arbitrage
an asset (in this case a currency) be bought relatively cheaper and immediately after be sold at a higher price. short time period. no need for captial to trade
shopping around
one way arbitrage, either buying at cheaper rate or selling at higher rate. only works if investors willing to complete transaction
synthetic bid
go thru another currency to get what you want
synth bid = arb??
If the direct and synthetic ask and bid rate differs, this might create opportunities to possible arbitrage and shopping around