voting behaviour and the media

A social class

Higher managerial, professionals, upper middle class

B social class

Middle managers, professionals(teachers, lawyers), middle class

C1 social class

Clerical workers, junior managerial roles, shop owners, lower middle class

C2 social class

Skilled workers (builders, hairdressers) working class

D social class

Semi-skilled, unskilled factory workers, working class

E social class

Casual workers, longterm unemployed, reliant on state pension

Working class

From 1945-1966 general elections were defined by:

How successful the labour and conservative parties were in mobilising core support

Conservative social class support?

A,B,C1

Labour social class support?

C2,D,E

Partisan dealignment

The way in which voters since 1970’s have abandoned traditional party loyalties and have instead voted based on a range of factors

Class dealignment

Voters are much less likely to vote according to their class. Linked to partisan dealignment

Regions effect on voting behaviour

• south East, most prosperous, high home ownership, White, Conservative

• Ethnically diverse, big cities, working class, south wales, greater Manchester, Labour

• Industrial north of England more likely to vote labour

Age effect on voting behaviour

• Conservative Party = older voters

• Labour/LibDem = younger voters

• Conservatives = low tax, pension protection

• Labour = pro-Europe, social justice

When voters reach 45-54 age bracket they are more likely to vote:

Conservative

Ethnicity effect on voter behaviour:

• commonwealth immigrants = low social class = Labour

• Labour wins London consistently - very diverse

• BUT Rishi Sunak win BUT privileged

2024 turnout by education

No qualification 53% likely to vote

Other qualifications 62% likely to vote

Degree or higher 61% likely to vote

Education Effects voter turnout with no qualification vs higher education

Valence factor

The relative success or failure of a govts policies. Voters make decisions based on whether they are satisfied with the govts performance

Governing competency

The extent to which the govt is regarded as being capable - if it is viewed as having failed the public will vote for change

Either because they believe another party will govern better or as a protest vote

Poor governing competency influence on general election

The conservatives voted out in 2024 arguably due to poor public perception led to Labour landslide of 174

Leadership effect on voting behaviour

Popular leaders can help lead their party win - Blairs charisma and personality in 2001 aided his win

Successful campaign

Get Brexit Done - won BoJo his 80 seat majority

Voter turnout in 2024

59.7%, which was the lowest at a general election since 2001. Turnout was 7.6 percentage points lower than in 2019.

Labour manifesto 2024 core points:

titled "Change," focuses on economic growth, stability, and public service reform, emphasising "mission-driven government"

Key pledges include capping corporation tax at 25%, establishing a National Wealth Fund, cutting NHS waiting times by 40,000 appointments weekly, setting up Great British Energy, and strengthening border security.

Conservative manifesto 2024 core points:

titled "Change," focuses on economic growth, stability, and public service reform, emphasizing "mission-driven government"

Key pledges include capping corporation tax at 25%, establishing a National Wealth Fund, cutting NHS waiting times by 40,000 appointments weekly, setting up Great British Energy, and strengthening border security.

Issue voting in 2024:

Immigration, economy, foreign wars, cost of living, governing competency

Media and impartiality - Ofcom

Investigated RT (a kremlin. Backed broadcaster) for disinformation about the Russia-Ukraine war

Media and impartiality - GB News

Privately funded and right-wing bias - Nigel Farage - the public may now choose to source news form partisan channels undermining broadcast impartiality

Social media influence on voting

Unregulated by ofcom so not expected to be impartial in comments, stories or judgments. More popular with young people to access news and information. Bias and misinformation risk

Right wing tabloids

The sun, daily mail, daily express

Windrush scandal 2018

Home Secretary Amber Rudd - wrong deportation of commonwealth immigrants - hostile press coverage contributed to her resignation

Media’s role in scandal

2021 exposed Hancocks affair with his aide, The Guardian exposed Partygate, media exposure led to Johnson’s resignation in 2022

Where do people get their news from

Online and Social Media: Around 59% of UK adults use online intermediaries like social media and search engines for news, with Facebook (30%) and TikTok (11%) being popular.

Television: Despite a decline, TV remains a top source, reaching 70% of UK adults, with BBC One (49%) and ITV1 (34%) as dominant, particularly for viewers over 55

1979 general election - governing competence

Social factors and valence issues and issue voting - 1978 Callaghan didnt call a general election despite polling well - winter of discontent - poor image as grandfatherly not capable to confront unions

1979 general election - campaign

Cons focused on labours record in power - valence issues of governing competence - high turnout of 76% - labour C2 voters moved to Conservative - cons focus on governing competence persuade labour voters to abandon loyalties

1997 general election - governing competence

Labour 20% ahead in opinion polls - major associated with incompetence, disunity, and corruption - weak leadership contrasted by lair - major couldn’t persuade electorate he was fit to govern - ‘Black wednesday’ 1992