PSYCH 258 - Reasoning and Decision Making

Conjunctive Rule

Applies AND operator

Disjunctive Rule

Applies OR operator

Conditional Rule

Applies IF, THEN operator

Biconditional Rule

Applies IFF operator (if and only if or neither)

Propositional Calculus

System for categorizing conditional reasoning statements

Affirming the Antecedent

Produces a valid conclusion (antecedent = true)

Affirming the Consequent

Produces an invalid conclusion (antecedent = indeterminate)

Denying the Antecedent

Produces an invalid conclusion (consequent = indeterminate)

Denying the Consequent

Produces a valid conclusion (antecedent = false)

Normative Model

How a decision should be made, given unlimited resources

Descriptive Model

How people really reach decisions, given limited resources

Expected Value

Objective, statistical value of outcome

Expected Utility

Subjective value of an outcome

Subjective Expected Utility

Subjective value of an outcome according to subjective assessment of probability

What are the cognitive features of Prospect Theory?

Evaluation is made with respect to a reference point, principle of diminishing sensitivity, loss aversion, and value function

Framing Effect

Judgements can be affected by the way information is presented

Representative Heuristic

Judging likelihood by how well something matches the prototype

Small Sample Fallacy

Assuming that small samples will be representative of population

Base Rate Fallacy

Reasoning based on distinctive features, not probability in the population

Conjunction Fallacy

Probability of a conjunction is less than that for a single condition

Gambler's Fallacy

Reasoning based on expectation, not probability

Availability Heuristic

Judging probability by how easily examples are retrieved

Familiarity Heuristic

More familiar items more easily retrieved

Recency Heuristic

Retrieving more recent items causes overestimation of probability

Simulation Heuristic

Probability judgement affected by ability to imagine an event

Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic

Initial approximation (anchor) may affect later judgements (adjustment)

Overconfidence

Overestimating the accuracy of one's knowledge and judgements

Hindsight Bias

Tendency to consistently exaggerate what could have been anticipated in foresight

Illusory Correlation

Judging a correlation where none exists

Confirmation Bias

Seeking evidence confirming a belief

What are the principles of unconscious thought?

Occurs outside of attention, capacity not limited by working memory, applies bottom-up processing, superior at weighing importance of choice, associative thinking, divergent

Illicit Contrast

If one thing lacks a certain property, any contrasting object must have that property

Argument by Innuendo

Directing one to a particular conclusion by choice of words

Fallacy of the Continuum

Assuming small differences are always unimportant

Loaded Question

Using language that presupposes a certain conclusion

Fallacy of the Composition

Assuming that what is true of the parts is true of the whole

Why does greater choice make people miserable?

Missed opportunities, high expectations, regret, self-blame

Maximizing

Choose the optimal alternative by evaluating pros and cons of every option

Satisficing

Choose the alternative sufficiently good to satisfy you

Deduction

Reasoning from general to specific

Induction

Reasoning from specific to general

Syllogisms

Kind of reasoning in which a conclusion is derived from two or more propositional statements

Categorical Syllogism

Two premises and one conclusion

Belief Bias

Tendency to rate conclusions that are more believable as more valid

Atmosphere Effect

When people rate a conclusion as valid as long as the qualifying words in the premises match those in the conclusions

Mental Models

Mental simulation of the world, based on the description in the syllogism

Conditional/Hypothetical Syllogism

Consist of a conditional claim, which states a rule that relates two propositions

Statistical Syllogism

Going from observations about a group to an inference about an individual

Argument from Analogy

Occurs when we observe that two things share a set of properties and conclude that they must share a different property

One-Shot Learning

A concept is learned from a single example

Bayesian Inference

Provides a mathematical model for incorporating existing beliefs with new data

Affect Heuristic

Tendency for people to overestimate risk of events that generate a strong emotional reaction

Endowment Effect

People place a higher value on objects they already own over those that they don't yet own

Ikea Effect

Tendency for people to place a higher value on objects that they assembled themselves

Status Quo Bias

Tendency to leave things as they currently are, rather than making a change

Integral Emotions

Emotions that are directly related to the decision

Incidental Emotions

Emotions that are not directly related to the decision but happen to be the state of the person at the time they are making a decision

Nudge Theory

Institutions try to encourage people to make certain choices by introducing small changes to the environment