would replacing fptp dramatically change the outcome of elections? (party rep and position of gov)

a03

it would not dramatically change

theme 1

type of gov

weak 1

AMS and STV are more likely to create coalition governments

• ireland coalitions between unionists and nationalists are needed to restore peace

strong 1

AMS has created strong coalition in scotland and wales, but also single-party governments

• 2021 scottish elections, SNP have 64 MSPs and only required an unofficial deal with 2 green MSPs for a majority

FPTP in UK general elections can create coalitions too

• 2010 conservative/ libdem, and 2017 conservative supply and demand deal with the DUP

theme 2

party system

weak 2

the performance of minor parties would improve

• SNP 2021 Scottish Parliament and Bute House agreement with the greens → co-leaders to ministerial roles

strong 2

AMS would still seem to create a 2-party system where two parties dominate

• Welsh parliament → Labour largest in every party since 1999, and the official opposition in 2021 were the Conservatives

FPTP in UK general elections can inflate the performance of minor parties if their votes are concentrated

• SNP in 2015 - 56 seats

theme 3

voter turnout and tactical voting

weak 3

voter turnout might improve if people see that their vote will not be wasted

• 2021 scottish parliament turnout is 64%, which is higher than the 2024 GE which was at 59.8%

People will also not vote tactically

• NI very proportional = Sinn Fein won 27 seats off 27.9% of the vote → democratic

strong 3

voter turnout has not been much higher for devolved bodies than with FPTP in UK general elections

• 2021 welsh senedd 47% turnout → never above 50%