EQ3- What spheres of influence are contested by superpowers + what are the implications?

Tension over Arctic oil + gas

All 5 states, Russia, Canada, USA, Norway, Denmark, begun to strengthen military prescence in Arctic Circle:

• Norway focused investments in military in north of country

• Canadian armed forces engaged in military exercises with US based around defending Arctic

• all countries claiming extensions on their Exclusive Economic Zone (extends 20 nautical miles + includes resources in sea)

Resource exploitaiton in Arctic

• estimated Arctic contains 30% undiscovered gas

Exploitation

Greenland has 2 actives mines + potential for more as ice which covers 80% melts due to climate change

Gazprom, a Russian energy company, set up its first offshore oil platform

US Willow project in Northern Alaska- drilling 600M barrels of oil

What are intellectual property rights (IPR)

The rights people/ companies have over their creations. 2 categories:

1. Industrial property- trademarks, industrial designs, inventions

2. Copyright- literary + artistic works, TV programs

Importance of IPR

TNC’s + governments are the main source of new inventions.

• would not spend money on R&D if it would just benefit other TNC/ govs.

• would reduce trade as TNCs would not want to share new inventions with other countries if they’d be stolen.

How are powers affected by counterfeiting?

There is a worldwide trade in counterfeiting (fakes of brands + products) which undermine the global system of IPR.

-estimated $300bn lost in US + €43bn in EU every year as a result of property theft

-global value estimated $1.7 trillion

-agreements exist to protect brand names (TRIPS)

What is a sphere of influence?

A region or nation over which a country feels it has influence outside its borders, although it has no legal/ formal authority there.

e.g. after WW2, the Soviet Union’s sphere of influence included Eastern Europe

How can overlapping political spheres of influence lead to tensions?

South China Sea

South China Sea

• one of the most contested ocean regions- claimed by different nations like China + Phillipines

• essential for trade as it links Indian + Pacific ocean- 30% global trade passes through- $5.3 trillion

• significant in supporting coral reefs + over 3500 species of fish

• China’s built islands + used EEZ’s to extend its claim on resources- concerning for USA’s military reach + mobility

Political spheres of influence as a cause of conflict

Eastern Europe

• 1991 dissolution of the USSR into independent countries led to decline of Russia’s influence after those countries joined NATO

• Russia’s concern of Ukraine + Georgia’s aspirations to join NATO and Ukraine + Moldova joining EU escalated tensions

• 2014 Russia annexed Crimea in Ukraine + more ongoing conflict after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022

China + Africa’s ties

• China is Africa’s largest trading partner

• China’s increasing demand for resources has driven the increase with most investment in rich countries like Zambia, Congo

• in 2015, trade totalled to $300B

• China’s large scale investments to improve connectivity:

  • Nairobi expressway in Kenya

  • Doraleh multiway port in Djibouti

Environmental impacts, opportunities + challenges of China and Africa’s economic ties

Environmental impacts	Opportunities	Challenges
Movement of steel + cement industries to Zimbabwe ↑ air + water pollution Oil spills linked to Chinese-funded oil wells reported in Chad.	Economic development + growth through job creation (low wage manufacturing base) Transport + infrastructure improvements benefit communities + exports	Investment focused on resource-rich nations so unequally distributed Imports of cheap Chinese products has undercut local African companies, reducing their profit A decline in China’s economy would impact on African nations receiving investment

Rise of India as a power

• India is the 5th largest economy

• member of G20

• account for almost 20% world’s population

• increasing global political influence + have made military expansions

Tension between India + Pakistan

• In 1947, the Indian subcontinent was divided into Hindu India + Muslim Pakistan- over 15M displaced + 2M killed

• conflict broke out over the region of Kashmir in 1949- both claim Kashmir should be theirs in full

• a nuclear arms race started between them in 1974- now the 6th + 7th nuclear powers

Importance of Middle East region for resources

Contains 60% proven oil reserves

Core shipping routes run through e.g. Strait of Hormuz

Reasons for tension in Middle East

• muslim countries hostile to Jewish state of Israel- Iran has vowed to destroy it, USA is an ally of Israel

• religious differences between Sunni (SA) + Shia (Iran)

• since 2011, rise of extremist group ISIS in Iraq + Syria has created wars + terrorism

• differences in cultural ideologies- Muslim (middle east) + Western (Americas, Europe) in Qatar World Cup 2022

Tensions in middle east

Cultural: between religious groups- Sunni+Shia

Political: attempts to increase political influence in the region

Economic: conflict over resources- Iraqi-Kurdish conflict where tensions rose over oil production + territorial control

Environmental: impact of conflicts + exploitation of resources like oil fields

4 economic problems faced by USA + EU

Debt

Unemployment

Economic restructuring

Social costs

Debt

• 2008 global debt crisis due to sub-prime lending + low interest rates spread from US- many countries were dependent on US for trade

• banks e.g. Lloyds Bank were given gov funds, Northern Rock was nationalised to prevent collapse

  • cost £137B

• UK debt was £2.4T in 2021, US was $30T

-increased unemployment

-reduced spending on public services

-lower demand for goods+services

Unemployment

USA + EU have experienced more unemployment due to:

• deindustrialisation (due to globalisation)

• global financial crisis

Economic restructuring

Includes: global shift of manufacturing to Asia, shift in employment to tertiary + quaternary

• led to deindustrialisation, causing

  • unemployment in former manufacturing areas e.g. S. Wales

  • spiral of decline- people leave areas, quality of services ↓, etc

  • a need for investment in those areas, causing financial pressure

• led to the need to train + re-skill people for tertiary sector jobs

Social costs

• EU especially suffers from ageing population + decreasing working age pop.

• deindustrialised areas have faced: ↓ quality of life, and ↑ in mental health problems, emigration from area, + crime

4 sectors of military power

1. Naval

2. Nuclear weapons

3. Air power

4. Intelligence services

Economic costs of military power

1. Naval

• political pressure to increase navy ships from 296 to 355

• European naval forces have decreased by 32% since 1999 due to gov attempts to reduce costs

2. Nuclear

• in 2016, UK voted to upgrade nuclear powered submarines

3. Air power

• military spending focused on air rather than naval due to speed of response

• 2021 UK announced £700M investment into transport aircraft

• US Air Force spending increased by $60B from 2011-2022

4. Intelligence

• increased terrorism risks have led to greater spending- since 9/11 spending in US has been $500M

Arguments against military spending

-the focus of global influence is now soft powers + relevance of military is reduced

-money is better spent on reducing poverty, infrastructure + healthcare rather than hard power

Why is the future balance of global power uncertain?

• has been a rapid shift in balance of powers since cold war- no. of emerging nations have increased

• China’s economic status predicted to surpass US by 2030

  • modernised military by 2035

  • use of soft power to promote language, media

• world events are unpredictable- Brexit weakened power + influence of EU, Russia’s invasion and ongoing conflict

How might balance of powers shift by 2050?

• world may be bi-polar with US + China

• may be multi-polar with India + EU achieving similar levels of power

-US is still dominant in terms of economic + military power- youthful pop, powerful TNC’s, significant economic growth, social costs not paid by gov e.g. healthcare + pensions