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4 Sources of uncertainty in Adaptive Management
Structural uncertainty
additive or compensatory
Environmental uncertainty
each year is different
Partial observability
can we trust collected data?
Partial controllability
how good of shots are our hunters
harvest rate modelled versus discrepancies
4 model Framework accounts for
Additive or compensatory
density dependence (strong or weak)
Additive
Natural deaths and death from hunting mortalities different
Compensatory
Ducks that die from hunting would’ve died anyways
order of most reliable model to least
?SaRw
SaRs
ScRw
ScRs
How is Climate Change affecting the Non Breeding season
Deep south getting warmer
sea level rise
cold winters, intense weather and freezing
degradation of inland rice fields
drought, less flooded wetlands, loss of habitat
salinity changes
What affects geese migration
landscapes, availability of rice
What will happen to migrating waterfowl
Less migration, shorter distances, or more resident species due to conditions
Webless game birds
Cranes, rails,
Sandhill cranes
low harvest, illegal in many states
Rails and gallinules
some states permitted,
harvest overall lower, no one really shoots them
Coots
More coots shot, but little information on populations, likely doesn’t matter
Woodcock
Forest specialist, hard to hunt
hunted more than snipe, less than coot
Snipe
less than woodcock and coots
shoot with little information
Mourning dove
most hunted game bird in NA
Hotspot
females found
Hotshot
one dominant male
Female preferences
large gathering of males for female choice
Turkey
2nd big game animal in US next to white deer
social birds, allowing success of stocked turkey after early translocation
Examples of R3 programs
Recruitment, retention, and reactivation
college hunt
first hunt
women hunt
generally worse for youth, lack of retention, but better for adults
(mathematical modelling)
Botulism
90% of disease in waterfowl
by millions
bacteria in maggots
Why are waterfowl susceptible to disease
gregarious in high numbers
migratory
farm duck interactions
inherent susceptibility (ex. cholera)
Pathology of botulism in aves
periperal nerous system, death by downing
What cultures botulism in water qualityt
heat, high pH, stagnant water
Managing botulism
frost, cold, draining, flushing
Avian Cholera
Kills fast,
studied in eiders
Eider are prone to
Avian Cholera
- susceptible, also more susceptible with handling
- more susceptible with larger clutch
Avian influenza
Protein binding, receptors that bind disease
restricted window for transmission, helps to inform decisions on risk
Lead poisoning
ingestion for grit
which ducks are prone to lead poisoning
resident ducksdep
exposed to winter birds why?
hens, depuration, shunting toxins to eggs
lead in soil affecting all