Population Dynamics - Geography

How is the present day population distributed?

• In April of 2022, the distribution of the population was very uneven.

• With the highest densities being located within the Asian (specifically South and East) and European (specifically Central and Western) regions, as well as North-East North America.

• Lower population densities occur over wide areas within Africa, Oceania, Northern Europe, Western and Northern Asia.

• Urban environments tend to support some of the highest population densities.

What factors are affecting this current distribution of the population?

Changes in:

• CBR and CDR

• Social, and cultural factors

• Economic conditions

• Government policies

• Wars and revolution

• Aging or younger populations

• Migration - can impact the population structure, ethnicity and cultural values

Can cause natural decrease or increase in a region’s population

Define ‘population dynamics’

Refers to changes that occur in a population and include how and why these changes occur

What is global distribution of the crude birth rate?

Number of births per 1000 people per year in a population

• Doesn’t take into account gender

• Highest CDR occur within the African region (47.5-42.7 per 1000)

• World average is 18.1 per 1000, ranging from 10-20

• Europe and East Asia have some of the lowest CDR

• High CDR is commonly found within economically low coutries

What is the global distribution of the crude death rate?

Number of deaths per 1000 people in a year, this is subtracted from the CBR to produce either a natural increase or decrease

• Worldwide the CDR is decreasing

• Due to increased knowledge about effective disease control, and more governmental programs that target safer water supplies, and improved sanitation (less waterborne diseases)

What is global distribution of the infant mortality rate?

Average number of deaths of persons less than one year of age per 1000 live births in a year

• Have a large impact on the CDR - so there is a high spatial association between the two

• In 2020 the IMR dropped from 113.7 in 1960 to 26.1 globally

• Neonatal mortality rates have dropped (death within first 28 days) from 36.8 (1990) to 17.0 (2019)

What is global distribution of the fertility rate?

Average number of births per woman of childbearing age (15-49)

• Worldwide fertility rates are declining regardless of economic state

• In 1970 it was 4.7 children, now it is half that

What is the global distribution of life expectancy?

Average number of years a person can be expected to live from birth

• Declining CDR is expected to increase life expectancy worldwide to over 80 years old

• Due to access to healthcare, food security and housing life expectancy is higher in economically stable countries

Is there any spatial association between CDR, CDR, LE, IMR?

• Decreased death rate + increased life expectancy

• Decreased CBR/FR + increased life expectancy = natural decline + aging population

• High CDR + high IMR

How has population growth changed since the 1700s?

How is population growth projected to changed into the 21st century?

Explain what is occuring at all 5 stages of the Demographic Transitional Model

1. Birth + death rate = high, the natural increase is stable/slow increase (no country in this stage)

2. Birth rate = high, death rate = falls rapidly, very rapid natural increase (afghanistan, yemen, niger)

3. Birth rate = falling, death rate = falling more slowly, natural increase slows (india, kenya, mexico)

4. Birth + death rate = low, natural increase is stable/slow (australia, UK, USA, China)

5. Birth rate = very low, death rate = low, natural increase is stable/slow decrease (japan, germany, ukraine, croatia)

What is the Malthusian Theory?

• Malthusian theory, proposed by Thomas Robert Malthus, suggests that population growth tends to outpace the growth of food production, leading to widespread poverty, famine, and other crises.

• Malthus argued that population increases geometrically (exponentially), while food production increases in a linear fashion, leading to an eventual imbalance where resources are insufficient to support the population.

How does the Malthusian reject/follow social, economic, and environmental sustainability?

• Follows environmental sustainability due to it resulting in less agricultural demand on the environment and energy (less fossil fuels burnt),

What are the main causes for population changes since the 1950s?

What are the types and causes of population movements?

Define migration

The movement of people from one place of residence to another

Define immigration

The movement of people into a country to which they are not native to settle there

Define emigration

The act of leaving one’s own country to settle permanently in another

What is the current global distribution of migrants?

• Majority of the world’s migrant population are located in Australia, North America, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and Europe

• USA has the highest migrant population worldwide (Mexico), with 19.1% of all migrants

• European countries have migrant shares of between 2-5% and Australia has 2.8%

What are the 2 types of migration categories to consider?

Spatial categories - considering the scale of movement

• Intra-urban: one part of urban area to another

• Internal: within countries

• International: between countries

Temporal categories - considers the time frame of the movement

• Seasonal, temporary, recurrent, indefinite/permanent

What is the scale of agency?

It is to what extent do migrants have free choice in their migration

• High agency: voluntary

• Low agency: involuntary

• Medium agency: economic migration

What are the main push factors?

• unemployment

• famine/poverty

• drought leaves farmers without food

• lack of services

• political/social/religious persecution

• war/conflict

• lack of services

• isolation/loneliness

What are the main pull factors?

• potential for employment

• greater wealth/higher standards

• fertile land/less extreme climate

• adequate/reliable food supplies

• better safety/less hazardous situations

• political security

• range of services provided (education, health)

• access to family and friends

List the SCEEP factors, and examples

S - social (family members that have already settled elsewhere)

C - cultural (religious persecution)

E - economic (job opportunities)

E - environmental (natural disasters)

P - political (war, political instability, repressive government)

What are host and donor coutries, give examples

Host: countries that migrants move to (Australia, UAE, Germany, US)

Donor: countries that migrants leave (India, Mexico, China, Syria)

Impacts of migration on population structures

Economic migration can skew the age/sex ratio of countries as young, male workers immigrate for work in large numbers

Impacts of migration of dependancy ratio?

Dependancy ratios can increase in donor countries as working age people leave, and older people are left behind, increasing the average age.

This is also true in rural-urban migration, and countries experiencing forced migration to conflict

SCEEP benefits of migration on donor countries

S: reduce population growth, pressure on housing services

C: none

E: remittances sent home, less strain in employment

E: less strain on environment

P: promote connections between host + donor countries

SCEEP disadvantages of migration on donor countries

S: separation of families

C: loss of culture

E: loss of young, educated working age people, increases dependency ratio with old people left behind

E:

P: government misses out on taz and other benefits of having skilled workforce

SCEEP benefits of migration on host countries

S: migration of young people offsets the aging population

C: increased multiculturalism, enriches food, culture, cross-cultural engagement

E: boosts supply of low-cost labour, migrants spend money on food/services, fill jobs/skills

E:

P: international responsibilities towards refugees, promote connections between host + donor countries

SCEEP disadvantages of migration on host countries

S: social difficulties for migrant workers, pressure on housing + services, migrants vulnerable to being exploited due to lack of rights

C: racial, cultural, ethnic tensions

E: increase demand for housing, driving up prices

E: pressure on environment, more pollution due to the formation of slums

P: policial division over migration policies, migrants vulnerable to being political scapegoats, issues with organised crime

Classify the migration of Rohingya Refugees in Bangladesh

Spatial Category: Internal

Temporal Category: Temporary/Indefinite

Degree of Agency: Low

What are the push and pull factors contributing to Rohingya Refugees moving into Bangladesh

PUSH:

• Not recognised as citizens within their own country

• Cultural: they are Muslims being persecuted within a Buddhist country

• Violence, murder and rape are forcing them out

• Burning of their homes + villages

PULL:

• Cultural: Bangladesh is a Muslim country

• Safety + proximity - living in slums, provides shelter, they are not forced out of here

What were the population impacts on Bangladesh (host country) with the migration of Rohingya refugees?

• Rapid population increase in Cox’s Bazar district

• 50% of refugees are under 18 yrs

• Higher TFR in camps (3.8) than in Bangladesh (1.9)

• Increased dependancy ratio - refugees are reliant of humanitarian aid

• Stain health, food and water services

• The presence of larger stateless populations with high TFR and mortality rates challenges Bangladesh’s population projections

What were the population impacts on Myanmar (donor country) with the migration of Rohingya refugees?

• The Rakhine state (where most Rohingya lived) has experienced a significant drop in population - in mainly rural areas

• Changes in ethnic composition (mass exodus has altered this)

• Muslim Rohingya populations have reduced

• Skewed age-sex structure (most of those leaving are young, leaving behind older generations)

• Loss of working age adults - increasing dependancy ration

• Decrease in economic productivity

State statistics associated with the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh

• Bangladesh is one of the world’s largest refugee settlements - more than 30 camps and 920,000 Rohingya refugees

• Demographic profile: 52% children, 44% adults, 4% older generations

• 5 is the average family size (37%)

Define the following terms:

• Refugee

• Asylum Seeker

• Migrant

• Displaced person

• Refugee - person who has fled their country to escape conflict - as classified/acknowledged by the UN

• Asylum Seeker - a person who leaves their country due to fear of their safety so they seek safety in another country

• Migrant - a person that has moved from one residence to another

• Displaced person - someone displaced by factors out of their control

Define the following terms:

• Resettlement

• Warehousing

• Basic human rights

• Repatriation

• Non-refoulement

• Humanitarian aid

• Resettlement - refugee given permanent settlement/place to live

• Warehousing - keeps refugees in one spot (refugee camps)

• Basic human rights - the right to liberty, freedom, security, freedom from slavery

• Repatriation - migrant voluntary returns to their country

• Non-refoulement - practice of not forcing refugees out back to their country

• Humanitarian aid - the assistance provided to migrants to save lives, alleviate suffering, and maintain human dignity

Classify the migration of Bangladeshi migrant workers in the UAE

Spatial Category: International

Temporal Category: Temporary/Indefinite

Degree of Agency: Medium/high

What are the push and pull factors contributing to this migration into the UAE

PUSH:

• Bangladesh’s economy has recently expanded - remittances are one of the major contributors to this stability

• The Bangladesh government has a goal of $150b earned through remittances - causing the expansion of overseas employment

• Increased education but minimal job opportunities has caused younger generations to move

• Environmental vulnerabilities

PULL:

• UAE gov is focusing on recruiting a skilled workforce based on the demand of the tech-driven job market

• In 1971 the UAE gove introduced a temporary guest worker program

• The UAE is one of the world’s pre-eminent oil-rich nations located in the Gulf Cooperation Council

What were the population impacts on the UAE (host country) with the migration of Bangladesh workers?

• reduced the dependancy ratio - more working age people = less dependant population

• Temporary stay - affects population stability

• Migrant policies don’t lead to permanent residency creating separation between these populations

• Gender imbalance - predominantly male population (70/30)

What were the population impacts on the Bangladesh (donor country) with the migration of the workers?

• less working age = reduced TFR/population growth (less women are having children due to them having them at older ages, with men moving away early in life for work)

• Wives left behind

• Rural to urban migration is occurring first, then these people are moving for employment

State statistics associated with the Bangladesh workers in the UAE

• Bangladesh currently has about 7 million migrant workers distributed worldwide - 1 million within the UAE

• Between 1976-2018 a total 12.2 million migrant workers arrived from Bangladesh

• Migrants remitted around 15.54 billion (2018), 15% higher than 2017

• In 2013, UAE has the fifth largest international migrant stock in the world with 7.8 million migrants in a population of 9.2 m.

• India, Bangladesh and Pakistan compromise over 90% of the country’s private workforce

• 100,000 Bangladeshis travelled for employment (2022)

Define the following terms:

• Voluntary migration

• Economic/Labour Migration

• Remittances

• Migrant worker

• Sponser

• Visa

• Demographic Dividend

• Voluntary migration - people movement of their choice

• Economic/Labour Migration - movement for purpose of employment

• Migrant worker - someone moving to take up employment

• Sponsor - someone who financially supports an individual’s visa

• Visa - permission granted to a non-citizen to enter a country

• Demographic Dividend - the potential for economic growth in a country with a large working age population relative to dependants

Classify the migration of Bangladeshi migrant workers in the UAE

Spatial Category: Internal migration

Temporal Category: Indefinite

Degree of Agency: Low to moderate - not immediate need to leave

What are the push and pull factors contributing to this migration into the UAE

PUSH:

• loss of farmland - rising sea levels, river erosion, loss of mangrove forests, increased salinity = enviornmental migration

• low sea level + many rivers = increased vulnerability

PULL:

• job/economic safety

• housing

What were the population impacts on the Bangladesh rural regions (donor region) with the migration?

• overall population decline

• declining working age - younger men moving

• increased female proportion - women left behind to manage the farms

• lower fertility rates - fewer young couples

• increased dependency ratio

• remittance-based economy - rural areas increasingly rely on remittances

What were the population impacts on the Bangladesh urban/Dhaka regions (host region) with the migration?

• population growth (13 million migrants from 2003-2023)

• Dhaka receives 400,000 new migrants from Barisal, Khulna, Satkhira

• youth bulge in populate structure

• overcrowding (over 1.1 million people in slums alone (2022))

• strain on infrastructure + health services

State statistics associated with the Bangladesh workers in the UAE

• In 2011, 300,000 people migrated out of 6 local divisions to Dhaka

• In 2023, 60% rural (decreasing), 40% urban (increasing) population distribution

• 55% of people moving to urban areas are doing so for higher-paid work

• 70% of Dhaka slum dwellers moved due to environmental shock

• over the last decade 700,000 Bangladeshis were displaced on average each year by natural disaster

Define the following terms:

• Planned relocation

• Disaster Displacement

• Human mobility

• Salt water intrusion

• Planned relocation - an organised move by people from unsuitable locations to a safer location

• Disaster Displacement - the forced movement of people due to environmental or human reasons

• Human mobility - the movement of people

• Salt water intrusion - saltwater contaminating freshwater supplies + agriculture locations due to sea level rise