Climageddon Cumulative

3 principle GHG’s

Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N20)

Hockey Stick Plot

created by Michael Mann in 1999. “The most controversial chart in science”. Measures the temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere for the last 1000 years.

IPCC

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change.

When and who created the IPCC

Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP)

What is the objective of the IPCC

The objective of the IPCC is to provide governments at all levels with scientific information that they can use to develop climate policies

Unequivocal means

very certain

The 10 warmest years scince 1850 have all occurred in the past…

decade

Who can we trust for reliable climate data?

Independent, Authoritative, Extensively peer-reviewed, Consensus based, Transparent, Proven track record for honesty

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is…

the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change

IPCC Role

To “assess on a comprehensive, objective, open, and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation”

Each year, Earth Overshoot Day marks…

the date when we have used all the biological resources that the earth can renew during the entire year

US Overshoot day

March 14

The Keeling Curve

Monthly Average CO2 Concentration at Mauna Loa Observatory, David Keeling

What 2 trends were discovered with the Keeling curve

Seasonal Fluctuations: decrease May-September; increase October-April

Overall Increase: Atmospheric CO2 is increasing over time

What is the cause of the Keeling Curve trends

Seasonal: Plant respiration in the Northern Hemisphere

increase: Fossil Fuel Usage

Industrial Revolution

transition to new manufacturing processes in Europe and the United States, that substituted machines for manual labor

Outcomes of the Industrial Revolution

Led to prosperity (for some) and population growth

Produced air and water polllution and GHG emissions

1824- Joseph Fourier

Calculates that the earth would be far colder if it lacked an atmosphere. “An object the size of the Earth, and at its distance from the Sun, should be considerably colder than the planet actually is if warmed by only the effects of incoming solar radiation”

Considered the possibility that the Earth’s atmosphere might act as an insulator of some kind

1856 - Eunice Foot

compared the temperature inside two glass cylinders in the sunlight.

The one that contained CO2 became much hotter than the one containing air

1859 - John Tyndall

Conducts hundreds of experiments and discovers that some gases block infrared radiation (H2O, CO2, CH4)

He suggests that trace concentrations of the gases in the atmosphere could affect heat transmission through the atmosphere

His interest was to understand how Europe could have been glaciated

Svante August Arrhenius

On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground

Hothouse effect later renamed the Greenhouse Effect

he predicted a doubling of the CO2 concentration would produce an average temp increase of about 5C

1897 - T.C. Chamberlin

produces a model for global carbon exchange including feedbacks

This explained that glacial periods arose from changes in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere

He was President at the University of Wisconsin from 1887-1892

1901 - Nils Ekholm, Swedish meteorologist

“The present burning of pit coal is so great that if it continues… it must undoubtedly cause a very obvious rise in the mean temperature of the earth.”

Guy S. Callendar - British Engineer

Compiled measurements of temperatures from the 19th century on.

He found that over the past hundred years the concentration of the gas had increased by about 10%

1945-1950’s

Atomic weapons added radioactive Carbon 14 to the atmosphere demonstrating global air movement

1955 - Hans Suess

analyzed wood from the trees grown over the past century, finding that the newer the wood, the higher its ratio of plain carbon 12 to carbon 14

1950s-60s - Roger Revelle

studies the movement of CO2 between the atmosphere and the ocean

The amount if radiation reflected by a surface is referred to as its…

albedo

3 factors that determine the changes in the Milankovitch cycles

Eccentricity (the elliptical changes in the earths orbit around the sun)

Obliquity (the tilt if Earth’s axis toward and away from the sun)

Precession (the wobble of Earth’s axis toward and away from the sun)

The Carbon Cycle

carbon is stored in the air, water, soil, and in living things

Plants take carbon out of the air through photosynthesis, when they die and decay they transfer the carbon back to the soil

Oceans are a huge reservoir of carbon holding 50x more than the atmosphere

December/June solstice

days in which one hemisphere experiences their longest/shortest day of the year

March/September equinox

Days in which everywhere on the earth has the same length of day/night

The landmass at the south pole of the earth is called…

Antarctica

Approximately how much has the global average temperature increased since pre-industrial times?

1.5 degrees C

What is the current population of earth

8 billion

About how much of our total annual generated electrical driven energy derives from wind power in Iowa?

65%

About how much of our total annual generated electrical energy derives from wind power in the whole U.S.?

10%

What GHG’s contribute to gobal warming?

Chlorofluorocarbons, Methane, Nitrous Oxide, Carbon Dioxide

Is the U.S. burden of allergy associated with pollen-bearing plants expected to increase of decrease or remain the same with worsening global warming?

increase

Global warming has made hurricane’s more forceful?

true

Norway is at the same degree north as Northern Canada but is much warmer. What is the cause of the warmer climate of Norway?

Gulf stream

warm water coming from the mid Atlantic

North Atlantic drift of the Gulf Stream

Ocean currents from the Gulf of Mexico northward

Ocean currents from the South

Indicators of Global warming

Increased temperature over land

Increased sea surface temperatures

Melting or permafrost

Rising sea levels

Increased temperatures over the sea

Loss of glacial ice

higher humidity globally'

Longer growing season in northern latitudes

Albedo Effect

as the sun’s rays hit earth, a percentage of the energy is reflected back into space

The amount of radiation reflected is called its albedo

3 general factors that determine the forcing changes in the Milankovitch cycles

1. Eccentricity (the elliptical changes in the earths orbit around the sun)

2. Obliquity (the tilt of Earth’s axis toward and away from the sun

3. Precession (the wobble of Earth’s axis toward and away from the sun)

Carbon Cycle

• Plants take carbon out of the air through photosynthesis

• When they die and decay, they transfer the carbon to the soil

Ocean and CO2

• Oceans are a huge reservoir of carbon holding 50x more than the atmosphere

• 30% of the carbon released from burning fossil fuels has been absorbed in the oceans

• Warm water can hold less dissolved CO2 than cold water

• Ocean is becoming less effective at removing CO2 from the atmosphere

Clathrate

a structure in which water molecules under certain conditions bond to form complex networks of molecules forming cage-like structures that encapsulate a gas

Methane SAT

uses infrared spectrometry to measure methane in the atmosphere with great precision

How do we monitor the climate today?

NOAA Land-based monitoring systems:

• Local Climate Data

• Cooperative Observer Network

• Global Observing Systems Information Center

• National Solar Radiation Database

Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP)

Climate models help scientists to understand how the climate has changed in the past and may change in the future

IUCN Conservation Status

system for rating conservation status

Ecosystem

An interdependent community of plants, animals, and microscopic organisms and their physical environment, interacting to form a complex whole and food webs

Biodiversity

the variety and variability of life on Earth

a measure of the variety of organisms present in different ecosystems

5 major extinction events

• end Ordovician

• Late Devonian

• End Permian

• End Triassic

• End Cretaceous

Coral reefs provide…

food for 100’s of millions of people

barrier against hurricanes, typhoons, and tsunamis

Revenue from tourism

Coral reef damage is from…

damage from siltation

pollutant runoff

fuel spills

acidification

warming

coral bleaching

loss of algae the live symbiotically with the coral

First documented species ti go extinct due to climate change?

Golden Toad

global population today

8.2 billion

Carbon Dioxide Formula

CO2

Methane Formula

CH4

Nitrous Oxide Formula

N2O

Scientific Climate Observations

temperature record- over land, sea surface, global average

melting of glaciers and the polar ice cap

sea level rise - inundation of low lying areas

more evaporation from oceans

more evaporation → higher humidity

more intense rainfall events occurring with greater frequency

flooding some places, drought other places

Regular Person Climate Observations

Extreme weather events

Onset time of spring across the globe

late ice on lakes, early thaw

dates of migration on animals, flowering of plants

movement of species to northern latitudes or to higher elevations

wildland fires

Greenhouse Effect

Some of the infrared radiation passes through the atmosphere but most is absorbed and re-emitted in all directions by GHG molecules and clouds which warms the Earth's surface and lower atmosphere

Which Carbon Form is radioactive and not found in Fossil Fuels?

14C

Anthropocene

The period during which human activity has been the dominant influence on climate and the environment

Research tools for climatologists researching eras prior to recorded history

Tree cores, ice cores, sediment cores, fossil records, sedimentary rocks

What is studied in Ice Cores?

Gas trapped in air bubbles

Which gas has the highest "Lifetime Years"?

Carbon Dioxide

Which gas has the highest "Global Warming Potential" making it the "Low Hanging Fruit"?

Methane

Ratio measured in Ice Cores. As earth cools, ____ is locked away in ice leaving behind relatively more _____ in the oceans

16O:18O

Measures temperature, salinity, and pH at various ocean depths at one location

Fixed Buoys

Measures sea level changes, hydrological cycle, climate signals, global ice volume, and improves ocean forecasts by spending 1-2 weeks underwater

ARGO Drift Buoys

Among the world's most sophisticated models of global climate. Examples of model components include: clouds, winds, ocean bottom topography, soil moisture, etc.

Community Earth System Model (CESM)

AR6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, how many Scenarios?

5

AR6 "Very Ambitious Scenario - Complies with Paris Agreement"

Global CO2 emissions fall to zero by 2050.

AR6 "Sustainable Development Scenario"

Global CO2 emissions are strongly reduced but less rapidly.

AR6 "Middle of the Road Scenario"

CO2 emissions hover around current levels before beginning to decline by mid-century.

AR6 "Regional Rivalry Scenario"

Greenhouse gas emissions and temperatures keep regularly increasing, with CO2 emissions almost doubling from
current levels by 2100 due to country competitiveness.

AR6 "Fossil Fuel Driven Development Scenario"

"Worst Case Scenario". Current levels of CO2 emissions are almost doubled by 2050.

Threatened

The UICN Conservation temp grouping these three categories: critically endangered, endangered, and vulnerable

IUCN Conservation Status has how many categories?

9

Latitudinal Diversity Gradient

As we move AWAY from the equator, biodiversity decreases

Biodiversity Variations

Genetic, ecosystem, species

Terrestrial Biodiversity is greatest where?

Near the equator

Marine Biodiversity is greatest where?

Western Pacific Coasts

The 6th Extinction

Anthropocene

Which USDA Plant Hardiness Zone is Iowa?

5a, 5b

Tropical, Dry, Temperate, Continental, and Polar are considered what?

Koeppen Climate Zones

What percentage of coral reefs are damaged?

20%

What percentage of coral reefs are in critical condition?

50%

Corals like it either warm or cold, but not:

Hot or Acidic

Anthropogenic Climate Change is outpacing what?

evolution

2050 Predicted Population (In the Billions)

9.7

2100 Predicted Population (In the Billions)

10.4

Population Pyramid

A graphic depicting the ages of the members of a population split by gender

Carrying Capacity (definition)

Maximum population size of a biological species that
can be sustained in that specific environment

Carrying Capacity (limiting factors)

livable land area, food supply. water, energy, climate decline, natural disasters, war/violence, consumption/standard of living, technology, etc.

Demographic Transition Model Stage 1

High birth rates, high death rates, stable