PSCI 257: The Arab Uprisings and the Return of Oppression reading

What is Arab Exceptionalism and how did the 2011 Uprisings challenge it?

The belief that MENA countries were uniquely resistant to democratization. The 2011 uprisings shattered this idea by showing the possibility for mass popular mobilization for change

What was the general outcome of the Arab uprisings across the region?

Most regimes responded with repression, with only Tunisia moving towards democracy

Elsewhere, regimes cracked down harder and were supported by regional powers (e.g. Bahrain and Saudi Arabia) or collapsed into civil war (Syria, Yemen, Libya)

What is the concept of ‘counterrevolution’ in this context?

An elite-led effort to suppress change and restore the old order after threats from mass protests

What did Heydemann predict about MENA regimes post uprisings?

That they would become more repressive, sectarian, and resistant to democracy, which turned out to be true

Measuring Repression - The Political Terror scale (PTS)

This is a yearly measure of government violence against people’s physical integrity (e.g. torture, disappearances) using Amnesty and US state dep. reports

What trends did PTS reveal after 2011?

Slight increases in violence in the late 2000’s

Then a major spike in violence from 2013 - 2015

Unprecedented high levels of repression sustained through 2018

4 Repressive trajectories after 2011: Reduced Repression

Democratic shift ended most regime violence, though old elites linger (e.g. Tunisia)

4 Repressive trajectories after 2011: Counterrevolutionary upscaling

Massive crackdowns on dissent (e.g. revoking citizenship, forced disappearances)

e.g. Egypt, Bahrain

4 Repressive trajectories after 2011: Repression in Civil war

State violence led to army splits and violent collapse (e.g. Syria, Libya, Yemen)

4 Repressive Trajectories after 2011: Readjusted repression

Mix of minor reforms and legal crackdowns, leads to rebranding without change

e.g. Jordan, Morocco

What is repression according to Edel (2018)

Government actions (or threats) meant to punish or scare people into not challenging regime’s power (through violence, jail, censorship)

Key repression dimensions: Form

Legal restrictions vs. physical violence

Key repression dimensions: agents

Police, military, militias, secret services

Key repression dimensions: Targets

Protestors, media, NGO’s, exiles

Key repression dimensions: Justifications

‘national security’, ‘anti-terror’, and legal reasons

Key repression dimensions: Visibility

Public crackdowns vs. secret arrests

Key repression dimensions: Digital tools

Censorship, surveillance, level of cooperation with tech companies