A Level Politics: Voting Behaviour and the Media

What are the key questions when analysing elections?

Which groups of voters turned out and who did they vote for?

How did turnout impact the result?

Which issues kept the winner in power?

What role did the leaders play?

Did opinion polls get accurate predictions?

What role did the media play in the election?

What are the general geographical trends in Scotland?

Left wing, traditionally Labour

Opposed to London centric policies as well as New Right policies

Concerned with the specific social and economic problems that exist within Scotland as well as the impact of devolution

Since 2017, the SNP have been dominant, with some return to unionist parties like the Conservatives in some areas

What are the general geographical trends in Wales?

Heavy Labour bias, but some areas have strong Tory support

Industrial areas favour Labour, rural areas favour Conservative

The far west is far more likely to vote Plaid

What are the general geographical trends in Northern Ireland?

Has its own party system

Split between unionist and nationalist parties, this reflects the religious and cultural differences in the region

What are the general geographical trends in London?

Majority Labour voting

Increasing ethnic diversity and greater ethnic disparity across the city

Greater reliance on public services eg transport

More socially liberal than other cities

What are the general geographical trends in rural England?

Overwhelmingly Conservative

Mostly white

Economically and socially conservative

What are the general geographical trends in industrial Northern England?

Mostly Labour

Higher levels of unemployment than elsewhere in the country

Greater rates of poverty and urban decay

Greater ethnic diversity

Shifted Conservative in 2019, the 'red wall' fell due to Brexit

What are the general geographical trends in the Home Counties?

Predominantly Conservative

London commuter belt

Made up of C1, B and A classes

Mostly white, economically prosperous

More Conservative than London

What issues are men more likely to prioritise?

Foreign intervention, taxation, nuclear power, nuclear weapons

What issues are women more likely to prioritise?

Healthcare, education, childcare

What are some examples of gender becoming more important?

1997: Blair launches all women shortlists for Labour

2010: Cameron introduced all women shortlist for the Conservatives

2014: The Lib Dems campaign on equal pay and greater childcare provision

2017: Labour commits to gender impact assessments on policies

What are some of the general trends among women and what are the exceptions to this?

They marginally favour the Conservatives, older women in particular are more likely to vote Conservative

However, Blair won a larger share of the female vote

There was a smaller gender gap in 2019: Cons 46% male, 44% female

Labour 31% men 35% women

What are some of the general trends surrounding age?

As age increases, voters are more likely to vote Conservative

Younger voters lean left (only 19% of 18-19 year olds voted Tory in 2017) and older voters lean right (69% of over 70s voted Tory in 2017)

Voters are less likely to vote Labour as age increases (66% of 18-19 year olds, 19% of over 70s in 2017)

Turnout increases as age increases, therefore parties of the left are disadvantaged as younger voters are less likely to vote, 18-19 year olds had 57% turnout in 2017 compared to 84% of over 70s

Why do older voters favour the Conservatives and how has this impacted party policy?

They tend to favour tradition and slower change and wish to retain "the good old days"

Therefore, policy often centres around these key groups of core voters

For example Labour proposing the scrapping of tuition fees and the Conservatives and inheritance tax

Arguments FOR a 'youthquake'

...

Arguments AGAINST a 'youthquake'

The 18-24 year old turnout has fallen slightly since 2015

Labour's unexpected success was driven mostly by an increase in the under 30s vote

What is the general trend among BAME voters and why is this?

Overwhelmingly more likely to vote Labour

in 2010, 60% Labour vs 16% Conservative

British Asians are more likely to vote Conservative

This is due to the legacy of anti minority campaigning by the Conservatives, for example Enoch Powell's Rivers of Blood speech

Also, the concentration of BAME groups into industrial urban areas and Labour's multi cultural and anti discrimination agenda

What is class dealignment?

When members of a social class no longer vote for the party their class is aligned with

What is partisan dealignment?

The idea that voters have become less committed/loyal to one party

How is class in the UK typically defined?

In terms of wealth, culture and education

What are the traditional classes in the UK?

Upper, upper middle, lower middle, working, working poor, underclass

How did class traditionally impact voting?

Until around the 1980s, class was the biggest indicator of voting intention

A, B and C1 voters made up the Tory core vote

C2, D and E made up the Labour core vote

However there was never a clear cut divide, Labour attracted some state sector middle class workers eg teachers and the Conservatives attracted the patriotic working class

What are the links between class and turnout?

The wealthier are more likely to vote

In 2010, 76% of the wealthier classes voter compared to 57% of the lower classes

Why has class become less important in modern Britain?

There has been a decline in the importance of economic issues

A declines in heavy industry shrank the traditional working class and the new service rose, they are less unionised

Social issues have become more important

What are the 7 new classes?

Elite, established middle, technical middle, new affluent traditional working, emergent service, precariat

What are the social issues that are of greater concern in the UK?

Immigration, civil and human rights, crimes, welfare provision, attitudes to sex and and sexuality, Britain's position in the world

Who are the 'left behind' voters?

Economically left wing, culturally right wing

Believe the country has changed for the worse and feel left behind by the social and economic changed of the last 30 years

Tend to be white, poor and working class

What are the four models of voting behaviour?

Rational Choice, Issue/Spatial, Economic, Valence/Governing

What is the Rational Choice Model?

Voters behave like consumers, choosing which position to take on an issue

They decide how to vote based on what policies are best for them

Based on the idea of an educated electorate

Voters are influenced by: parties track record, election manifestos, party leaders, key party figures

What are the issues with the Rational Choice Model?

Doesn't explain why voters feel differently about different issues or how voters vote when there are no overriding issues/positions

What is the Issue/Spatial Model?

Voters think individually about particular issues and weigh up which party prioritises the key issues

Voters vote for a party based on its manifesto policies

Issues vary from election to election and are not static, but include: crime, immigration, education, the economy, healthcare, taxation

What is the Economic Model?

Management of the economy is the most important factor when choosing who to vote for

Voters should prioritise the economy over all other factors

What is the Valence/Governing Model?

Voters choose based on who would govern best

Usually based on: strong leadership, management of the economy

What is the importance of the media in a democratic society?

It is a vital feature of a healthy democracy that can play an essential role in holding the government to account (eg post 1997 when opposition to Blair was weak)

What concerns surrounding the media exist?

Issues are often simplified, newspaper owners are primarily concerned with profits and sales, newspapers cannot be held to account

What is the difference between newspapers and television?

Newspapers are notably partisan and have explicit political bias whereas TV usually remains neutral and is heavily regulated

How has the role of the media changed?

Traditionally: It reported accurately, educated the public and provided commentary and a forum for debate

Now: Due to the rise of the internet, it has become increasingly partisan and cynical, focuses on personality "celebrity politicians" and is more opinion orientated, additionally people tend to be more aware but less engaged

What is the dominant ideology model?

This argues that voters are heavily influenced by the ideology of powerful elites who project their interests through their roles in the media, business etc

The media creates and shapes public opinion rather than simply reporting the news

Eg Corbyn 2015-2020, Foot 1983

What is agenda setting theory?

This argues that the media cannot change how we think but focuses on what we think about and prioritise

If a news item is covered more frequently and prominently, the issue will be regarded as more important

Eg if immigration is covered more than climate change, it will likely be seen as more important by the general public

What is framing theory?

The idea that the media can subtly frame issues to influence how we think

What is reinforcement theory?

The idea that we choose to consume media that we agree with rather than media that challenges our existing political views

What is selective exposure?

Avoiding political coverage that conflicts with our ideas or beliefs

What is selective perception?

Interpreting facts in such a way that they don't conflict with our beliefs

The role of the media in between elections: War reporting

Patriotic reporting of the Falklands War helped to create the impression of Thatcher as "the Iron Lady" and helped swing public opinion in favour of the war

The role of the media in between elections: Expenses

The Telegraph revealed details of MPs wrongful expenses claims and abuses of power, creating a mood of distrust

The role of the media in between elections: The EU

Press reporting, particularly from newspapers like the Daily Express made the issue more prominent than it needed to be

Has the media influenced elections: 1997

After Blair met with Murdoch, the Sun declared their support for Labour which led to many voters switching alliances which could have led to Tony Blair's landslide victory

However, the press could have been simply reacting to the public mood

Has the media influenced elections: 2010

Reporting of the expenses scandal undermined the reputation of all MPs which led to many sitting MPs losing their seats

However, turn out was 4% higher than in 2005 and Labour were set to lose anyway after the financial crash

Has the media influenced elections: 2017

May's refusal to participate in the leaders debate became a point of attack

However, May went onto win more votes than Cameron did in 2010 or 2015 and win the election overall

To what extent has the media influenced elections: Significantly

Newspapers are notably partisan, for example the Sun and Blair's 1997 victory

TV debates in 2017 and 2010

To what extent has the media influenced elections: Not as significant

People pick and choose what they consume and are more likely to read papers that agree with their views

TV is regulated and generally unbiased

The media simply reacts to changes in public mood