Hindsight Bias, Overconfidence, Pattern Perception, and Post-Truth in Psychological Notes

Flashcards cover hindsight bias, overconfidence, pattern perception in randomness, major examples and quotes, and the post-truth context from the notes.

What are the three common flaws in commonsense thinking discussed in the notes?

Hindsight bias, overconfidence, and perceiving order in random events.

Hindsight bias

The tendency to see events as having been predictable after they have happened.

How is hindsight bias illustrated experimentally in the notes?

By giving groups opposite purported findings and asking them to explain; after hearing explanations, both groups tend to view the true finding as unsurprising.

Hindsight bias in real-world examples from the notes

After a stock market drop or a sports outcome, people attribute inevitability or credit/fault after the fact, making the outcome seem obvious.

Dr. Watson’s quote related to common sense in hindsight

'Anything seems commonplace, once explained.' (Dr. Watson to Sherlock Holmes)

Søren Kierkegaard quote on understanding

'Life is lived forwards, but understood backwards.'

Bohr’s quote about prediction

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.

What are Superforecasters?

A small group of experts who predict world events with high accuracy by gathering facts, weighing clashing arguments, and calmly settling on an answer.

Tetlock’s findings on expert predictions

From 27,000 predictions with about 80% confidence on average, accuracy was less than 40%; only about 2% of people are superforecasters.

Overconfidence demonstrated with word puzzles

People overestimate how quickly they can solve anagrams (WREAT→WATER, ET RYN→ENTRY, GRABE→BARGE); actual solving time is longer (about 3 minutes on average) without seeing solutions.

Overconfidence in history (examples)

Famous misjudgments such as Decca Records turning down the Beatles, Popular Mechanics predicting computer weight, or Sedgwick’s elephant-distance remark reflect overconfidence.

Pattern-seeking in randomness

People see patterns in random data (faces on the Moon, backmasking, etc.); random sequences often look nonrandom, with streaks and patterns occurring more often than expected.

Why people seek patterns

A random, unpredictable world is unsettling; making sense of it relieves stress and helps daily functioning.

Diaconis and Mosteller on large samples

'With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen.' (1989); the idea that unlikely events occur with enough trials.

Diaconis’ remark about unusual days

'The really unusual day would be one where nothing unusual happens.' (Diaconis, 2002)

Post-truth era concept

Oxford English Dictionary’s 2017 word of the year; a culture where emotions and personal beliefs override objective facts.

Belief vs. Fact: Crime rates

Belief: crime is rising; Fact: crime rates have fallen for decades; violent crime in 2015 was less than half the 1990 rate.

Belief vs. Fact: Immigration

Belief: immigrants are criminals; Fact: immigrants are less likely to be imprisoned (about 44% less likely) than native-born individuals.

Partisan bias

Bias found in both liberals and conservatives, not limited to one side.

Democracy and facts

Without a common baseline of facts, democracy is threatened; people may rely on beliefs over evidence.

Leadership warnings about truth and facts

Obama (2017) warned that without a common baseline of facts, democracy is threatened; McCain (2017) warned about growing inability to separate truth from lies.

Post-truth and why it matters

People may accept information that fits their opinions even if it is not supported by evidence; this undermines objective understanding.