CSP (Conflict Studies & Peace-building)

General causes of conflict

* Background causes
* Root causes
* Underlying causes
* Structural causes

Timeline of international conflict phases - Second phase

Characterised by Cold War conflicts

* Bipolar power base on nuclear deterrence
* Proxy wars (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan i.e.)
* Politically and ideologically driven.
* Fewer interstate wars after the end of WWII.

Timeline of international conflict phases - Third phase

* New wars/ wars of the third kind/ Hybrid wars.
* These are about statehood, governance, and the role and status of nations and communities within states.
* Even fewer interstate wars,
* From PSC to TNC models.

European theorist of early modernity - Machiavelli

Theorist of early modernity

European theorist of early modernity

Competition for gain/fear/power

European theorist of early modernity - Hume

Scarcity

Conflict and war as…

The failure of politics

Conflict Escalation and De-escalation Model - The Hourglass Model

Galtung’s Model of Conflict, Violence, and Peace

Galtung’s Model of Conflict, Violence, and Peace - Direct violence

Behaviour

Galtung’s Model of Conflict, Violence, and Peace - Cultural violence

Attitude

Galtung’s Model of Conflict, Violence, and Peace - Structural violence

Contradiction

Cause of conflict in Azar’s view

Due to “the prolonged and often violent struggle by communal groups for such basic needs as security, recognition and acceptance, fair access to political institutions and economic participation”

The role of the state according to Azar

To satisfy or frustrate basic communal needs, thus preventing or promoting conflict

Protracted Social Conflicts (PSC) - Contributing factors

* Where to look to understand conflict from a PSC perspective
* Communal content/ identify a group (religion, ethnic, racial, cultural)
* Identified deprivations of human needs as underlying source of PSC
* Governance and the role of the state in frustrating the satisfaction of needs
* International linkages (economic/ military dependencies and clientage)

Azar’s determinants to activate conflict.

* Communal actions and strategies (group formation, organization and mobilization, i.e.)
* State actions and strategies (coercive repression or instrumental co-option, i.e.)
* Build-in mechanism of conflict (perception, experiences, fear, i.e.)

For PSC theorist like Azar the causes of social conflict are about…

… needs and the failure of states to satisfy them.

Transnational Conflict Framework (TNC)

Conflicts are not about unsatisfied needs but about…

… opportunistic rebellions

TNC - Levels of analysis

* Global
* Regional
* State (Social/Economic/Political/Geographical)
* Identity group
* Elite/ individual

Why is “power politics” is a failed, flat earth paradigm?

We will not be able to solve the world’s problems through adversarial processes, ‘win lose’ mentalities, or ever more destructive power politics.

The field of conflict resolution developed, to some extent, as a critique of and alternative to…

…political realism and realpolitik

What is conflict - Darwin

Biological

What is conflict - Marx

Historical

What is conflict - Freud

Pyschological

What is conflict - Jesus Christ

Religious

What is conflict - Putin/Biden

Political

7 elements of principled negotiation

* Relationships : what relationships do we have, what do we want?
* Interests : what are our interests and needs, what are theirs?
* Options : what options could satisfy our needs, and theirs?
* Legitimacy : what criteria for settlement is relevant and fair?
* Commitments : what responsibilities can we accept?
* Communication : how can we best share, listen?
* Alternatives : if negotiation fails, what then?

Example of Party advocacy

Save the whales

Example of outcome advocacy

Stop the dam(s)

Analytical problem solving conceptual framework

1. What is the problem to solve

… or the challenging issues to discuss
2. Analysis

… What is the most useful ‘framework for analysis’?
3. Brainstorming

Cooperative, collaborative, creative problem solving
4. Action Plan - Based on analytical problem solving

Human Needs Theory

There is a (non-hierarchical) set of fundamental human needs that are universal. Everyone in all societies and cultures has these needs

Human Scale Development List

Subsistence, Protection, Affection, Participation, Creation, Relaxation, Identity, Understanding, Freedom

Manfred Max-Neef’s definition human poverties

Any human need that is not adequately satisfied reveals a human poverty. Every poverty that is structural, institutionalised and endemic, leads to pathologies

Examples of latent conflict

* Syria (2011 –to present)
* Iran (1979) (1980-1988).

Protracted Social Conflict (PSC)

Needs + Governance (failure)

Transnational Conflict (TNC)

Opportunistic rebellion (state fragility)

Triggers of conflict

Factors that affect the timing of the onset of armed conflict

Catalysts

Factors that affect the intensity and duration of the conflict (internal-external).

\[The red bubble\]

Violent Collective Action

Syria’s war as an insurgency

The general power dynamic, of a strong government faces weak opposition

Types of insurgencies

* Integrated groups
* Vanguard groups
* Parochial groups
* Fragmented groups

Insurgencies - Integrated groups

Have a well-institutionalized central command and control over local units. These tend to be the most militarily effective groups, able to carefully coordinate strategy and keep fighting even in difficult situations

Insurgencies - Vanguard groups

Have a strong central command but weak local control. Local units defy or ignore the central leadership. They are the most likely to change, either by being wiped out through leadership decapitation or becoming integrated by building local alliances with local communities

Insurgencies - Parochial groups

Are made up of powerful local factions that lack a powerful, unified central command. They resemble militarized coalitions, even if under a common organizational umbrella

Insurgencies -Fragmented groups

Lack central cohesion or local control, and tend to be quickly marginalized

4 types of needs according to Azar

* Security needs.
* Development needs.
* Political access needs.
* Identity needs (cultural and religious expressions).

Dilemma (meaning)

A situation in which a difficult choice must be made between two or more alternatives, especially ones that are equally undesirable.

Ethical dilemma

A situation in which an actor must choose between two or more obligations that cannot all be satisfied (contradictory demands)

Resolving ethical dilmma’s - 3 dominant traditions in western moral philosophy

* Aristotelian virtue ethics (actions performed without constrains → autonomy).
* Kant’s deontological moral theory (actions –follow duty/rules- vs consequences).
* Utilitarianism (the consequences of an action is the standard of right or wrong)

4 types of luck

* Constitutive luck.
* Causal luck.
* Circumstantial luck (Nazis in Germany and Argentina i.e.).
* Resultant luck (drunk driver i.e.).

Williams and Nagel make an important contribution to moral philosophy by…

…showing the extent to which moral judgements are influenced by factors that are beyond a person’s control.

Clausewitz - Friction

The tendency for disruptions to occur, even when there are no serious mistakes or miscalculations

Influence of friction

It influences the context in which soldiers make ethical decisions. It may cause ethical dilemmas to occur, impede soldiers’ ability to resolve them, and increase the costs of misjudgment

Clausewitz - Fog

A component of friction, but is often described as a distinct problem. It is an uncertainty, an absence of information

OAS

Organisation of the American States

CELAC

Community of Latin American and Caribbean States

Types of violence

1. Criminal
2. Repressive states policies and the militarisation of public security
3. Selective political violence against human rights defenders, representatives of social movements and independent journalists, among others

3 phases of democratisation and peacebuilding

1. War termination
2. Post war democratisation
3. State building (or liberal peace)

Why deploy peacekeeping?

1. To contain violence and prevent further escalation to war
2. To limit the intensity, geographical spread and duration of war
3. Consolidate a ceasefire and create space for reconstruction

Peacekeeping as a conflict resolution mechanism (3 generations)

1. First generation, peacekeeping missions (1956 Suez Crises- UNEF I –consent, impartiality and non-use of force as “the holy trinity”)
2. Second generation, peacekeeping missions (1990s after the end of Cold War – Rwanda and ex-Yugoslavia)
3. Third generation…peacekeeping operations (9/11 2001 New Wars)

Human security

Physical safety, economic and social well-being, dignity and the protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms

Neo-reaslist approach to peacekeeping

Refuses “peace language” not gear towards peace operations but stabilization forces

Pluralist approach to peacekeeping

Traditional peacekeeping, peacekeeping should be left to UN

Solidarist view on peacekeeping

In line with peacekeeping operations

Cosmopolitan approach to peacekeeping

Peacekeeping operations but…with United Nations forces will train and serve entirely as UN forces, not as national troops