wk 5: affluence+ consumption/

IPAT framework: affluence

• average consumption per person (GDP/person)

• affluence and population growth

  • gdp/capita: negative relationship, lower the affluence, higher the birth rate, higher the affluence, lower the birth rate

  • more children, to help with work

• more affluence = more consumption

consumption

• consumption habits change as a function of development and wealth

• lowest income spend more on basics, higher income less on basics more on finances

Kates (2000)—consumption

• growth rates for consumption well beyond population growth rates

• relatively little is known about processes that can reduce consumption

• in IPAT framework, we have clear observation that slow down in population growth relates to societal changes

  • do not have equivalent observation for why consumption goes up

• suggestion that we need a template of action to reduce consumption

  • suggests 3 changes:

  • satisfy: with what we already have

  • satiate: do not need to consume more but be satisfied with what is already have

  • sublimate: detach our satisfaction from materialistic consumption

• impacts/consumption (t part of IPAT)

  • shift: less harmful ways of consumption, reduce/reuse/recycle, can we decarbonize/dematerialize consumption

  • need technological advances to help reduce impact/consumption

Robert malthus (techno-pessimism)

• expected growth of food supply to be arithmetic (proportional) to area cultivated

• predicted that population growth and food supply would lead to malthusian catastrophe (starvation, disease, war)

Paul ehrlich (techno-pessimism)

• rise of the environmental movement

• the population bomb (1958) battle to feed all of humanity is over, hundreds of millions of ppl will starve to death in the 1970s

• carrying capacity: max population size that the global food system can actually feed

  • ehrlich: increasing resource depletion and degradation of environment = harming food production system → reduction in global carrying capacity

  • population becomes larger than carrying capacity

• leads to starvation crisis → population crash → carrying capacity crash → population has to drop down enough to match carrying capacity

• proposes: tax penalties for having children, incentives for voluntary sterilization

• reality: scenario did not become reality

meadows et al (1972)

• developed computer model to simulate human environment interaction in different scenarios

  • population

  • industrial growth '

  • food production

  • resource

  • pollution

• vast majority of simulations led to crash → population crash

free market: price = measure of scarcity

• copper price divided by average wages

• copper price divided consumer price index

• come down since 1800s → indication that copper became more abundant over time

environmental kuznets curve (techno-optimism)

• relationship btw development and pollution

• once average income in population has reached certain level and basic needs are met ppl focus on other things such as deteriorating environment

• environmental policies are strengthened

• solution to pollution is more economic growth

decoupling of pollution

• as GDP grows so does pollution

• eventually these two factors get decoupled

• cleaner more efficient technologies introduced → pollution decreases

economic growth and cleaner air

• population

• GDP

• vehicles miles traveled

• energy consumption

• co2 emissions

• aggregate emissions

  • common air pollutants have gone down while population and GDP has gone up

  • some evidence of decoupling

  • however, co2 emissions tied to energy consumption = decoupling here

  • does not take into account moving production elsewhere

comparisons of perspectives

• techno-pessimist

  • demographers/ecologists

  • limits to growth

  • future is uncertain

  • on the way to irreparable environ damage and pop collapse

• techno-optimist

  • neoclassic economists

  • persistent growth is possible

  • development and tech innovation is solution

  • will innovate our way out of problems

• neither perspective has turned out since height of debate

Herman daly

• opposes the mantra of unlimited economic growth

  1. economy is embedded in an ecosystem that is finite

  2. there is a physical limits to efficiency

• continuous economic growth at global scale is therefore not possible

• techno-optimist vision not possible, techno-pessimist perspective not desirable

steady state economy (Herman daly)

• changes in economic policies that lead to developments that enable us to slowly approach carrying capacity without overshooting it

• stable population and stable consumption at or below carrying capacity

• birth rate = death rate

• natural resources are used at the same time as they are replenished