US Political Systems Exam 3

political socialization

process by which we are trained to understand the world, effects your political views

partisanship

key decision that people make with huge downstream consequences

partisan filter

individuals interpret new information in light of their prior beliefs, mainly align with their partisan beliefs

What is the most powerful agent in partisanship?

parents

Who will the vast majority of people get their political views from

vast majority of people end up with the same political views as their parents

Influencers of political socialization

parents, media, family, elites, university, peers, leaders

partisan media

tone of coverage of cable network- changes with each presidency, it is on the rise, large impact on people political views

“Follow the Leader”

people follow positions taken by their leaders (ex. Colin Kapernick in NFL- when trump critized NFL b/c of Kapernick, Trump Voters drastically started disliking NFL)

Example of a person who shows the power of “Follow the Leader”

Trump- effect particularly on opinions people don’t have a strong opinion about

Do we have more or less choice in media consumption

More choice, as we ever did (people arent exposed to mandatory political content, ex. dont need to watch fox news)

How do citizens form opinions?

hueristics

heuristics

information shortcuts or rules of thumb (ex. lawn signs, sings people put up around campus)- people searching for something to get an opinion)

Opinion of Presidencies overtime

The American people like POTUS intially, but sour overtime, start high, go down, most presidencies in modern age have lower opinions

Why was Trump’s first term approval more stable than historical presidents?

polarized views- due to partisanship and polarization

Trust in the Media

American people have a lack of trust in the media, aswell as a general low trust in Institutions

Fenno Paradox

People trust THEIR member of Congress, but not congress as a whole

Causes of the Fenno Paradox

polarization, diffusion of responsibility, personal/incumbent effects

How do people get seat in Congress- generally?

By criticizing the Institution of Congress and other members ( may lead to Fenno Paradox)

When did the polarization of Congress happen?

Between the 70’s and 90’s

Southern Realignment

Got rid of class of democratic conservatives that were prominent going back to FDR in the south

What caused the polarization of Congress

Southern/ Northern Realignment

Northern Realignment

Got rid of moderate/liberal Republicans (Rockefeller Republicans) in the North

Are we in a culture war?

Probably a culture war going on- more now than ever before

Can we change people’s minds on issues in the current political climate?

Under the right circumstances, has to be an issue people don’t know much about

What did we learn from the Podcast- This American Life: “For your reconsideration”

The data was fake! (data about a woman and a canvasser, changing canvasser’s mind about abortion b/c the woman said she had an abortion) Made people question what it takes to change public opinion

What is a good way to change peoples opinions

social pressure, and relational organizing

examples of social pressure

sending people postcards saying their neighbor voted (see an 8% shift when do this)

relational organizing

people can be more persuasive with people they know (existing social relationship)

Where does knocking on doors work/ change peoples opinions?

Matters locally, not nationally

Historical Conventions

Throughout the 19th century party leaders chose behind closed doors who would be their nominees, party leaders choose who they thought would run the party best, function of communication- met in Chicago which was a good meeting place b/w areas, there were multiple ballots, could lead to a dark horse

Dark Horse Candidate

A dark horse is a previously lesser-known person, team or thing that emerges to prominence in a situation, especially in a competition involving multiple rivals, that is unlikely to succeed but has a fighting chance, unlike the underdog who is expected to lose.

Primary system

Secret ballot election of party members

caucus

public selection process, above a threshold

What matters in the primary system?

Sequence

Why does sequence matter in the primary system?

It determines media coverage, where the money goes, and attention (the state that chooses first- media goes there)- Historically has been Iowa, NH

What was the most consequential primary in 21st century?

Super Tuesday - 2016 (Trump)

Why was 2016 Super Tuesday the most consequential primary?

strong showing, mostly with a plurality of support, pretty much the day that Trump took over the Republican Party

Primary v. General election

primary- smaller, ideology purity test, favors more extreme candidates (Ideology extreme), money is scarce

general- need a much broader appeal, not just motivating partisans, trying also to attract swing voters, really only 2 party candidates who get a lot of attention, alot of money

Who does the electoral college favor?

According to Garlick, small states

how many electoral college votes?

538: because 438 house representatives, 100 senators, and 3 because of DC

Whose vote matters more- CA, VT?

Vote matters 3x more in VT than in CA.

Vermont: 3 electoral college votes for 0.65 million (216K per electoral college vote)

California: 54 electoral college votes for 39.5 million (720K per)

Who s the EC accumulate bias in favor of?

small states

Can we change the electoral college?

NO- (if enough states joined compact it could work, it would result in presidents campaigning to people, not states)(probably need an amendment to change)

Has the popular vote evolved over centuries?

Yes- the constitution was anti-democratic (like didn’t favor popular vote)

What does Tucker Carlson (2004) Say about how to win elections?

Talking about moral values- abortion

What was the election of 2004 really about?

More than abortion (Tucker Carlson wrong), the 2004 election was about national security (ex. Terrorism)- The Fundamentals

What are elections typically about?

The Fundamentals- Economy (nearly always), National Security (like if you were in power during a horrible war) and Crisis

What did Bread & Peace say/believe?

“What is the state of the economy and is the US fighting an unpopular war”- with these two can determine who will win election

Is Bread & Peace right?

Half, economic performance is a very strong predictor, except for unpopular wars

What is a core fundamental factor in Presidential General Elections?

Economy (unemployment rate, GOP growth, CPI- Cost index to measure inflation)

Are parties formally incorporated into the Constitution?

NO

What did Fed. 10 predict?

Factions (at the time the factions were economic and regional (North and South over slavery), but also parties

Parties

groups of people with similar interests who work together to create and implement policies

What system of government incoorperates parties into their system?

Parliamentary System

Example of Parliamentary system incorporating parties

Canada and UK- organized by “the government” vs. “the opposition” (the opposition makes a case to people that we should change, they don’t put forth policies)

Since when have parties been balanced?

1964

The Two Party System

Never had a minor party candidate make a serious stab at presidency

Duverger’s Law

“First past the post” elections (with single-member districts) will lead to a 2 party system. (reform ideas- ranked choice voting, proportional representation)

2016 example of why we have a two-party system

3rd party can spoil elections (ex. minority of Jill Stein voters in Michigan could have swung election if voted for Clinton - 1 in 5 could have changed outcome)

Which party generally has more, but historically turnout in lower rates?

Democrats

Generally, The older you get, the more likely you are to be ….

Republicans

Is education polarization on the rise?

Yes- (diploma divide)- also, our generation is re-evaluating higher education

Who is voting in what elections?

Democrats tend to vote in all elections (ex. primary) not just Presidents (from Trump time and going forward)

What is our two-party system a function of?

Our electoral system (first-past-the-post)

Ranked Choice voting

“Ranked Choice Voting is a simple change that gives voters the option to rank candidates for office in the order they prefer them: 1, 2, 3”

Ranked choice voting…

could encourages 3rd party candidates

Main difference between podcast versus radio

Choice

(changes content and the way it is receieved)

At the origins of Media…

Series of private companies that are trying to survive

Party-press Era

18th-19th century, Newspapers were expensive- parties would pay for advertisement, and newspaper content was based on political partisanship

Media at the turn of 20th century

Yellow Journalism, sensationalized coverage of scandals and human interest

Muckraking

Journalists who take public interest to heart, news coverage that exposes corrupt practices, Integral to Progressive Era

When did the Era of Mass media begin?

1920’s

Fireside chats

Series of evening radio addresses given by FDR- shortened the distance between public and presidents (put presidents into homes)

When was the Golden Age of Media?

1960 - 1979

CNN/ importance/ when?

1981- 24 hours of news a day

“CNN Effect”

Americans watched bombs being dropped in real time- screwed up Gen x

Did area of low choice (television) increase or decrease political knowledge?

Increased

What happens as we get more media choice in the 1970’s?

Sources get more adversarial (ex. Watergate highlighted the adversarial press)

Golden Age of Journalism

1960’s and 1970’s (low choice, high degree of trust)

Who was the first sitting US president to appear on a late-night comedy?

Obama

soft news

News presented in an entertaining style

Partisan media

outlets that de-emphasize “ideal of objectivity” and attract an audience by providing more overtly ideological perspectives (seeing a rise in modern media)

Impacts of increasing choice in media consumption

polarization, undermines ownership

Social media to as form of media (modern)

echo chamber- beliefs are reinforced by a closed information system

lack of gatekeepers- prone to dissemination (spreading information widely) of fake news

“Going public"

When Presidents use television/media (and cabinet meetings) to pressure members of Congress to get on board or threaten them with re-election, took of in 1980s’ w/ Ronald Reagan (personality differences between presidents influences which presidents use/dont use it)

“Hyperdermic needle”

Theory of public opinion change. Theory that media can place information in a citizens brain, not been shown in real-life

Why did the theory of the “hypodermic needle” gain prominance in 1920’s and 30’s?

Nazi time, age of propoganda, using powers of mass media to form people’s opinions- directly change people’s opinions

Has the hypodermic needle been shown in real life?

No

What are some evidence based media effects?

Agenda setting- media can choose which issues or topics get attention

Framing- process of giving news story specific context

Agenda setting

Media can choose which issues or topics get attention. Media can choose which topics to show you. Includes indexing. The tone media talks, influencing what issues people think are important

Indexing

• Part of agenda setting, the process of compiling data into a more organized and readable format for the purposes of comparison

• best beats for reporters (White House, Pentagon, State, SCOTUS), coverage follows

Framing

Process of giving a news story specific context. Includes Episodic framing and Thematic Framing. Can lead to bias

Episodic Framing

A story focuses on isolated details or specifics (ex. “Kalief Browlin Suicide Inspired A rush to end cash bail, Now its stalled)

• Leads to bias- episodically framed local news creates impression there is more crime that is actually occurring, increased perception of things going on

• Can increase compassion or fear

Thematic Framing

Takes a broad look at an issue and skips numbers or details (ex. “Large Illegal Immigrant Groups Crossing U.S. Mexico border pushing agents to ‘breaking point’)

• Looking at from high scale de-humanizes the people in the situation, removing humanity of the situation and removing culpability (blame)

• Can be used to avoid attribution (“officer-involved shootings”, or “Presidential -involved trade war)

Other documented Media Bias

• Well-documented partisan bias of cable news channels, although doesn’t necessarily change opinion because people choose what news they watch

• Media based in favor of authority (ex. press), conflict (ex. wars), novelty

How does the RNC (Republican National Convention) determine who gets on stage?

Ones standing in polls

Literary Digest

1930’s Magazine that had postcards included- readers filled out to predict elections, millions of respondents. Wrongfully predicted that Alf Landon would beat FDR in 1936

What was the first major poll?

Literary Digest

Why did Literary Digest predict wrong?

• skewed towards wealthier people

• Low income individuals like FDR, didnt do the Literary Digest poll

• Population polled skewed towards wealthier people (who wanted Landon)

What did George Gallop (1940’s) predict about Literary Digest?

Predicted that Literary Digest woudl predict Landon AND that it would be wrong, because of sampling bias