Processes of Democratization Final

Competitive Authoritarianism

Levitsky and Way (2002)

Playing field between incumbents and opposition is fundamentally titled and unfair

Core democractic principles (ff elections, universal suffrage, political rights and civil liberties) are not violated; instead resort to more subtle forms of control and threats

Opposition CAN win and CANNOT be elliminated

Four Main Arenas of Competitive Authoritarnism

Electoral (certain parties not banned), legislative (weak parliament but no full control), judiciary (not fully successful subordination), and media (independent media may still exist)

Evolution of Competitive Authoritarinism (Levitsky and Way 2020)

In past 15 years, US and EU have become less willing to promote democracy

China and Russia as black knights

No longer appear in countries with just weak institutions/economy/civil society but rather with broad public and parliamentary support

Thriving and expanding westward (contagion)

Electoral Autocracy

Outward facades of democracy (like regular multiparty elections for the top leader) in order to hide and reproduce authoritarian rule

Goal is to legitimize the regime

Illiberalism

Distinct ideology explicit based on liberalism

Democracy drawbacks and inconsistencies had coalesced over time to create an alternative worldview.

Attacks minority rights and identity politics

Transform wokism into political/rights issue to a cultural confrontation

Steps taken by Orban in Hungary

New constitution + usage of referendum

Redrawing of electoral districts and eliminates two-round system

Voter tourism and unsecure mail-in voting

More sanctions on opposition parties

Nationalization of clinics and fertility programs

Bermeo (2016)

What institutions are undermined? How? By whom?

No abrupt changes due to classic coup d’état

People now use promissory coups, strategic election manipulation, executive aggrandizement

Election manipulation and aggrandizement happen together and within rules of democratic game

Incrementalism is ambiguous and hard to recognize

Executive Aggrandizement

Expanding executive power, government using legal tools to undermine checks, basic rights, and opposition

Appointment of loyalists and collapse of separation of powers (horizontal checks)

Backsliding

Incremental erosion of democratic institutions, rules, and norms that come from constitutionally elected leader

Can happen in both weak electoral democracies and polarized liberal democracies

Focuses on political actors and the authoritarian tactics they use

Integrity of the electoral system, the protection of political rights and civil liberties, and horizontal checks are all made weaker

Political Polarization

First step of backsliding

Elites and public become divided over policy and ideology (undermines political center)

Normalizes democratic derogations

Assumption of executive power and legislative capture

Elimination of legislature as source of oversight and expand executive power

Approve executive appointments and pass laws that undermine rights, undermine integrity of electoral system

Endorse referenda to fundamentally alter constitution

EXTEND executive power through removal of term limits

Progression of Backsliding Process

Tilting the playing field ——> undermining free and fair elections

Incrementalism

Death by 1000 wounds, executives test normative limits little by little

Curtail independence of judiciary and then target rights and liberties of opponents

Casual impact (one thing has an effect on another)

Psychological Effect of Incrementalism

Leaders gradually normalize democratic abuses

Becomes status quo and delays effective responses

Ambiguity of autocratic signals disorients public

Effects of Polarization

Democratic performance, anti-system movements and parties gain footholds, populist appeals

Reduces incentives to compromise and normative guardrails

Leads to party line voting

Performance (Polarization)

Polarization leads to inefficient governance and stalemates —> elites and public start to see democracy as dysfunctional

Populist Appeals (Polarization)

Claiming to represent the will of the people

Goes from liberal democracy to majoritarian democracy (no checks or procedural niceties)

Use referenda to enact change

Instigate violence and vigitalism

Effects of Capture of Legislature

Eliminates crucial point of oversight (increases corruption, attack political opponents)

Sets stage for collapse of horizontal checks

Stack judiciary and independent agencies with loyalists

Legislature can delegate additional power to executive and expand their power through referenda

Pros and Cons of Referenda

Charismatic executives can make appeals via biased media and public resources

Facilitates fundamental constitutional reform

Bypasses checks and balances when popular support is strong

Can be embarrassing if they fail

Opposition

Elites and members of parties that are not in power

What factor decides which strategies are most effective in preventing elections turning autocratic?

How polarized the country is

Opposition Strategies Against Executive Overreach

Party alliances, joint candidates, smart voting

What affects how successful coordination is among the opposition?

Vulnerability of the autocratic regime

Intra-Institutional Strategies

Use a similar election campaign as the wannabe autocrat or markedly deviate from it to depolarize the political landscape

Election Boycott

Powerful signal to convey the illegitimacy of the incumbent regime

Reduces opposition’s ability to challenge autocrat in legislative institutions

Best Way to Stop Democratic Breakdown

Elections, voting autocrat out of office

Incumbents Changing Electoral Cycle

Not holding elections at all

Postpone their timing when seen as unpopular or hold snap election

Evade term limits (but this can actually lead to pushback)

Incumbents Changing Institutional Setup of Forthcoming Elections

Switch electoral system from proportional system to majoritarian and then polarize electorate (maximizing seat shares)

Gerrymander electoral district boundaries

Disenfranchise voters that are unlikely to vote for incumbent

Ballot construction

Ballot Construction

Make it harder for candidates to get on the ballot (outright jail them, investigate them)

Incumbents Tampering with Campaign Cycle

Build clientilistic election campaigns (collect a lot of money from organized interests and subsequently criminalize campaign donations from opposition actors or abroad)

Monopolize media (limit airtime of opposition and harass journalists)

Incumbent Interference on Election Day

Electoral violence (create chaos in the streets and prevent people from going out)

Electoral irregularities (fraud)

Incumbent Interference after Election

Not accept defeat

Mobilize supporters against results

Levitsky and Ziblatt’s How Democracies Die (2018)

Warning after Trump’s presidency

Democracy no longer ends with dramatic coups but with executive aggrandizement and incrementalism

Scheppele (2018)

Legalistic Autocrats

Autocratization is carried out in the name of democracy and with popular support

Ambitious new socio-political project, a “new democracy”

Autocratization Challenging Liberal Democracy

Elections are not free and fair (tilted playing field)

Restrictions on horizontal and diagonal accountability in order to increase the power of the executive

Role of Fake News

Deepens polarization

More effective and secretive than blatant attacks on media

Undermines legitimacy of institutions

Why do voters vote for undemocratic leaders?

Partisan Interests (same party/policy preferences)

Polarization leads to party-line voting and disregard of democratic norms

Adapt their conceptualization of democracy

Weak Understanding of Democracy

Support democracy abstractly but rationalize behavior to be democratic

Rather favor policy gains, partisan interests, candidate traits

Opposition becomes more pro-democracy when primed with info about violent elections

Education help people understand democracy in newly democratized country

Electoral Coalitions

Critical role in the opposition

Medium levels of repression incentivize formal electoral coordination, high/low levels lead to informal

Uniting broad-based coalitions can form under severe repression

Agency-Centered Approach

Assumes clear cut divide between political and civic field

Coalition must have joint candidate and agree over post-electoral sharing and ideological divides among voters

Civil society, trusted public figures, international alliances can bridge disagreements and refocus attention on shared goal of ousting incumbents

Civic/grassroots actors/protests are also important

Only partially successful opposition blocs can further strengthen autocracy

Weyland (2024)

Strength/weaknesses of institutions at onset of autocratization are much more important and they shape opportunities available to opposition

Actions of opposition reflect areas not yet under incumbent control

Emphasize role of vertical, horizontal, and diagonal accountability structures

But autocrats seek to dismantle these first

Vertical Accountability Structures

Elections and voters

Horizontal Accountability Structures

Judicial and legislative checks, monitoring bodies

Often first targets of autocrats

Diagonal Accountability Structures

Civil society orgs, non-state actors, media

Time-Sensitivity in Dynamic Approach to Autocratization

Opposition must adapt to evolving engagements with autocratic power as some tactics become less viable

Proactive recalibration, not reactive adjustment

Space in Dynamic Approach to Autocratization

Opposition and incumbents act within civic, political, institutional, and transnational domains

History of strong institutions (democratic stock) gives solid base for opposition to channel resistance

Grassroots, electoral support, and accumulated experience in well-established democratic traditions is harder to dismantle

As Autocratization Unfolds….

Political and social agency in the opposition becomes more important

Constitutional Safeguards Against Autocratization

Constitutionally making them unamendable or requiring a supermajority to change them

Require supermajorities and consecutive parliaments to pass reform

US Stopping Autocratization after Trump’s First Term

Stopped “from within” by political and social resisters

Gamboa (2022)

Decisions, goals, and tactics are extremely important

TIME IS ALSO IMPORTANT RESOURCE

Utilize moderate institutional strategies (legislation, litigation, lobbying)

Helps protect legitimacy abroad and decreases incentives to oppress

Moderate Institutional Strategies

Increase the odds that the opposition will keep some presence in congress, courts, and oversight agencies

Helps opposition repeal antidemocratic strategies down the road

Counter Argument to Gamboa

Seemingly stable institutions can change over time and incrementally

Autocratization by defintion degrades accountability systems, so how can they deter anti-democratic practice

Rather favors political and social agency

Brownlee and Miao (2022)

Economic development and multipartism are two key bulwarks against autocratization

Socio-economic development increases chances of democratic survival

Political pluraism helps as a defense

Supported by findings of Przeworski et al. (2000)

Levitsky and Way (2023)

Undermining democracy is easier and less costly than consolidating an electoral autocracy

No such thing as global wave of autocracy