Demographic and Epidemic Transition Models

Demographic transition model (DTM) (APHG)

A model that describes the transition of a country from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as it develops.

Stage 1 of DTM

Birth rates are high + death rates are high, total population size is low, no entire countries in this stage, low growth.

Stage 2 of DTM

Birth rates are high + death rates fall, population grows, advancement in medicine and agriculture, high growth, ex) Nigeria.

Stage 3 of DTM

Birth rates gradually decrease + death rates are low, population growth slows, women gain opportunities, moderate growth, ex) Mexico.

Stage 4 of DTM

Low birth rates + low death rates, constant population/zero population growth, more opportunities + later marriage, ex) US.

Stage 5 of DTM

Low birth rates + low death rates, elderly population, decreasing population/negative growth, ex) Japan.

Epidemic transition model (ETM)

A model that describes the changing patterns of morbidity and mortality as a country develops.

Famine (ETM)

Infectious and parasitic diseases, most cause human death; animal attacks also cause deaths - death rate is high + life expectancy is low.

Receding pandemic disease (ETM)

Improved sanitation, nutrition, and medicine; lower spread of infection - death rate decreases + life expectancy increases.

Degenerative and human-created diseases (ETM)

Fewer deaths from infectious diseases and increase in diseases related to aging - death rate is low + life expectancy increases.

Delayed degenerative diseases (ETM)

Medical advances reduce or delay incidences of diseases related to aging - life expectancy is at its highest.

Reemergence of infectious diseases (ETM)

Infectious and parasitic diseases become resistant to antibiotics and increase - life expectancy decreases.