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how is public opinion understood
through polls/elections
demonstrations
interest level on topics
news coverage
looking at different segments of the population
source of public opinion
personal and political beliefs, news media, perceptions of foreign threats
also group identities
physical traits - gender and race
social associations
political beliefs
constraints to FP by public opinion
broad constraints - prez knows the public is watching
policy execution - limited by the type of policy and outcomes of said policy
domestic affairs - if turmoil at home, FP is seen as an escape for that (Epstein, Lowinski, and Watergate)
public climate - if happy and prez is liked then policy will most likely be seen the same way and vise versa.
3 levels of FP individuals in U.S.
FP elites - top 1% of individuals like business owners, policy makers, and billionaires that make the decisions on FP.
Affluent public - top 15% - these individuals have knowledge on FP issues but lack outlet to make impact on it - this is news media, bureaucrats, advocates
Mass public - rest of the people, don’t care much about FP and don’t have knowledge on it, want to leave it to the officials that they believe know best for them
Top 1 percent uses affluant public to get to mass public
6 ways public opinion matters
when a interest group lobbies government to make a change to help a group of people
when the policy effects all segments of society - gas prices rising
timing of the issue
the leader at the time of FP decision
if the public is angered and not supporting - through protests and demonstrations like Vietnam
if the public is in support it is easy to get FP through like in 2003 with the Iraqi war
when does public opinion affect Foreign policy
times of crisis
news coverage
elections
hot topics
how to explain public opinion
when elites and public share characteristics - see eye to eye on basic characteristics like US primacy and national security
differing opinions on similar FP issues but changes by situations
public controlled or not by former institutions - political views, ideology, religion
why are bureacrateics so powerful in government
congressional indifference
prez is preoccupied - lets them run free
they are experts on specific topics
National security act
NSA act of 1947 created DoD, CIA, and NSC
7 problems W/ bureaucracies
pentagon dominance
low resources for civilian agencies
poor central leadership
bad planning
bad reporting across agencies
bad budget coordination
poor congressional oversight
4 complexes of bureaucracies in US FP
diplomatic complex
security/intelligence complex
military complex
economic complex
Diplomatic complex
Ran by State department and secretary of state (Marco Rubio)
job is to advise president - gather information about oversees activities - negotiate with foreign governments - manage U.S. travel - and investigate transnational issues
tell president what he should focus on - most of FP is a mix of meetings between FSO’s and their counterparts across the globe
Military complex
Department of Defense - ran by Pete Hegseth, oversees all military action and budget
is the largest department with huge funding - covers all three main branches of military and runs well because of two factors
the action of U.S. large military force - lots of bases around the world help with this
the second is just the threat of U.S. military action scares countries into behaving
Security and intelligance complex
NSC and NSA - oversee the entire foreign policy process
agency of policy coordination, NSA is gatekeeper to the president, a neutral agency giving information to prez, and are crisis management
Intelligence complex - made up of 17 loosely connected agencies like (CIA, DIA, FBI) that all collect raw information through different sources (humans, surveillance, and images) and turn it into useful info for policy makers and government.
also part of counterintelligence and covert operations
lots of tension between the groups with poor information sharing.
understanding freind or foe
Economic complex
The economic complex is run by - council on economic affairs, which coordinate all economic activity and provide guidance to the prez in economic issues
coordinate flow of into to prez, make sure economic policy is good for his plans, and trhey implement the policy
they provide aid to other countries through world bank and IMF
federal reserve - Jerome Powell
powers of congress in foreign policy
ratifying foreign policy decisions
overseeing stuff
war powers
power of the purse = biggest tool
often focuses on domestic issues instead of foreign bc it impacts their constituents more
constraints to congressional power
passing the buck - congress tends to stay out of FP bc prez gets credit so they don’t wanna be blamed if things go bad
structural weaknesses - way to large, hard to get things done
judicial indifference - supreme court often sides with president and sees them as FP head and soul
constituencies service
past NSA people
George Bundy
w.w. rostow
henry kissinger
zbisniew birzezsinici
case-zablocki act
1972 - requires prez to report to congress on foreign affairs and action
war powers act
1973 - requires prez to inform congress of want to go to war
nelson Brigham amendment
authorized congress to revise and review sales of arms
intelligence oversight act
1980 gives congress power to oversee inelegancy agencies and specifically covert operations
patriot act
the patriot act allowed the us government ot monitor citizens they believed to be dangerous to public
National Security Advisor
prez chief of staff in FP - in charge of what prez learns everyday - maintains direction of where FP goes
5 acts imporatnt to congressional oversight
case zablocki act
war powers act
nelson brigham amendment
intelligance oversight act
patriot act