lecture 14 and 15 : Judgement and Decision making

Consequentialist Punishment

the ultimate evolved reason for our drive to punish. prevention, deterrence, incapacitation, rehabilitation.

retributive punishment

the proximate emotional reason for our drive to punish

availability heuristic, survivorship bias, representative heuristic, anchoring

Estimation Based errors

Availability heurisitc

relying on information that is easier to retrieve when making judgements. its more available to the mind.

Survivor bias

the logical flaw in selectively considering the cases that survived and ignoring the cases that didn't.

representativeness heuristic

judging the likelihood of things in terms of how well they seem to represent, or match, particular prototypes; may lead us to ignore other relevant information like the base rate of each group.

base rate fallacy

The tendency to ignore information about general principles in favor of very specific but vivid information.

anchoring

relying too heavily on an initial piece of information in decision making

ex. estimation of price increases as listing price increases.

cognitive dissonance, optimism bias, loss aversion, endowment effect

Motivation based errors

Cognitive dissonance

the discomfort caused by holding two conflicting ideas simultaneously.

The over justification effect

the result of bribing people to do what they already like doing; they may then see their actions as externally controlled rather than intrinsically appealing a, and cause them to stop doing what they like doing because the motivation is the bribe.

The ben Franklin effect

doing someone a favor makes you like them more because you have to internally justify why you even did them the favor in the first place.

Belief in a just world

A form of defensive attribution wherein people assume that bad things happen to bad people and that good things happen to good people

The halo effect

more attractive people tend to also be seen as warmer, more intelligent, honest, nicer, and better lovers

Optimism Bias

Our tendency to overestimate our likelihood of experiencing good events, and underestimate our likelihood of experiencing bad events.

Planning fallacy

we consistently underestimate how much time well need to complete a task, making us always late.

Loss aversion

losses are psychologically more powerful than gains. losses hurt more. don't want to loose things.

The endowment effect

owning something makes us value it more. we don't wan to lose it.

bounded rationality

humans try to make rational decisions but our cognitive limitations prevent us form being fully rational

will power, self interest, ethics, awareness, rationality

things that are bounded in our lives (5)

Will power is bounded

we give greater weight to present concerns than to future concerns.

immediate motivations don't align with our future motivations.

self interest is bounded

we care about the outcomes of others more than we care about ourselves sometimes.

ethics is bounded

our ethics are limited in ways we are not even aware of.

awareness is bounded

board array of focusing failures that affect our judgment

system 1 processing

intuitive system. fast and automatic, implicit and emotional.

system 2 processing

rational thinking. 6 processing steps. effortful and logical thinking.