Module 4–8 Vocabulary Flashcards (Hindsight Bias to Statistical Reasoning)

Vocabulary flashcards covering key terms from Modules 4–8.

hindsight bias

The tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that you would have foreseen it (the I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon).

overconfidence

The tendency to be more confident than correct in judgments or assessments.

perceiving order in random events

The tendency to see patterns in random data, often leading to illusory correlations.

theory

An explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes observations and predicts behaviors or events.

hypothesis

A testable prediction implied by a theory.

operational definition

A carefully worded statement of the exact procedures used to measure or manipulate a variable.

replication

Repeating a study’s essence to see if results hold across different participants and settings.

descriptive methods

Methods used to describe behavior, including case studies, naturalistic observations, and surveys.

case study

An in-depth analysis of an individual or group to reveal universal principles; can be revealing but may mislead if unrepresentative.

naturalistic observation

Describing behavior by observing in natural environments without manipulation.

survey

Ask people questions to collect self-reported data on behavior or opinions.

random sampling

A sample in which every member of the population has an equal chance of participating.

population

All those in a group being studied.

sampling bias

A flawed sampling process that produces an unrepresentative sample.

correlation

A measure of how closely two variables vary together; can predict one from the other but does not prove causation.

correlation coefficient (r)

A numerical index of the strength and direction of a relationship between two variables, from -1.00 to +1.00.

scatterplot

A graph of two variables with data points; the slope indicates the relation’s direction and the amount of scatter indicates its strength.

positive correlation

A relationship in which two variables rise or fall together.

negative correlation

A relationship in which one variable tends to rise as the other falls.

illusory correlation

Perceiving a relationship where none exists, or overestimating its strength.

regression toward the mean

The tendency for extreme or unusual scores to fall back toward the average on subsequent measurements.

experiment

A study that manipulates one or more variables to observe the effect on another variable, using random assignment to control confounds.

independent variable

The factor deliberately manipulated by the experimenter.

dependent variable

The outcome measured to assess the effect of the independent variable.

confounding variable

A factor other than the independent variable that might influence the dependent variable.

random assignment

Randomly assigning participants to experimental or control groups to minimize preexisting differences.

experimental group

The group exposed to the treatment or manipulation.

control group

The group not exposed to the treatment; serves as a baseline for comparison.

placebo effect

Improvement due to expectations rather than the treatment itself.

double-blind procedure

An experimental setup in which neither participants nor researchers know who is receiving the treatment.

validity

The extent to which a test or experiment measures what it is supposed to measure.

reliability

The consistency of a measure or finding across time and researchers.

informed consent

Providing potential participants with enough information to decide whether to participate.

debriefing

Post-experimental explanation of the study, including any deception used.

descriptive statistics

Numerical data used to describe characteristics of a group; includes measures of central tendency and variation (often shown with histograms).

histogram

A bar graph showing a frequency distribution.

mode

The most frequently occurring score(s) in a distribution.

mean

The arithmetic average of a distribution.

median

The middle score in a distribution (the 50th percentile).

skewed distribution

An asymmetrical distribution in which extreme scores pull the mean toward the tail.

range

The difference between the highest and lowest scores.

standard deviation

A measure of how much scores vary around the mean, using every score in the distribution.

normal curve

A symmetrical, bell-shaped distribution; about 68% of cases fall within one standard deviation of the mean, about 95% within two.

inferential statistics

Statistical methods that allow generalizing from sample data to a population.

statistical significance

The likelihood that a result is due to chance; typically p < .05, indicating a reliable difference.

variable

Anything that can vary and be measured.

sample

A subset of the population chosen for a study.

representative sample

A sample that accurately reflects the population being studied.