the stern report and economics of climate change

what will occur under a BAU scenario

up to 20% risk of exceeding 5 degrees C global average temperature change by mid-century

basic elements of life under threat

• Access to water

• Food production

• Health

• Use of land and the environment

impacts for developing world

1. Geographic disadvantage

2. They are heavily dependent on agriculture

3. They suffer from inadequate health provision and low-quality public services

reduced incomes ….

increase in illness and death

cut revenues and raise in spending ….

worsen public finances

climate-related migrations …

conflicts

IAM

integrated assessment modelling

what does IAM do

provides a tool for estimating the total impact on the economy

models that include risk of abrupt and large-scale climate change estimate average loss in global GDP of

5-10%

and for poor countries

in excess of 10% GDP

loss from weather events alone

0.5-1% of world GDP per year

mitigation

focuses on human interventions to reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases or increasing their uptake to reduce the amount and speed of climate change

examples of mitigation

energy conservation and efficiency, renewable energy and carbon sinks

adaptation

changes made to better respond to present or future climate change conditions in order to reduce harm or take advantage of opportunities

adaptation examples

change in land use, relocation, health programs and residential programs promoting adaptation

overlap examples

seal buildings, green infrastructure and smart growth

2006 view of emission paths to stabilisation

by 2050, global emissions would need to be around 25% below current (2006) levels

rate of emissions cute required is sensitive to

peak emissions

achieving deep cuts in emissions will have a cost

• Establishing a carbon price, through tax, trading or regulation

• creating a broadly similar carbon price signal around the world

what is required for radical emission cuts in the medium to long term

large-scale uptake of clean power, heat and transport

emission cuts we’re now on track for

4-4.5% per year

largest GHG emitters

China, USA, India, EU, Russia and Indonesia

largest emitters per capita

Russia, USA, China, EU, World, Indonesia and India

NDC

nationally determined contributions (climate actions)