The Brexit Party (and Reform UK)

Launch date

• January 2019

  • By Nigel Farage

Aims

• Put pressure on the Tory govt to achieve Brexit

Relation to UKIP

• Seen as a ‘new version’ of UKIP

• Attracted former UKIP supporters and backers

TBP as a threat to the Tories

• Seen as a threat to C to either get Brexit done or risk losing support

• Put pressure on May (arguably caused her resignation)

• Pushed the C to the right, esp under Johnson

2019 - vote share and seats in EU elections

• 36%

  • Similar to what Cameron won on in 2015, but did have half the turnout

• 29 of 72 seats

2019 GE - vote share

• 2%

  • This is because they stepped down in any 2017 Tory-won seats to allow the Tories to win a majority

    • BUT in 38 L seats, the C + TBP vote was higher than L vote, so TBP did split the Leave vote and saved L from further losses

• Farage then claimed TBP had ‘killed the LibDems and hurt the LP’

  • This is due to the considerable drop in Labour vote in Leave seats (e.g. NW Durham), some of which went to TBP, allowing C to win

2021

NAME CHANGE!

2024 GE - seats and vote share

• 14.3% of the votes

  • 4.1m votes

• 5 seats

2024 GE - 2nd

• 98 constituencies

  • 89 of these were a L win

May 2025 - no of councils and seats won + vote share

• Won 10 councils

  • 677 seats

• 30% of votes

  • L - 20%

  • LD - 15%

May 2025 - Runcorn and Helsby by-election, increase in vote share since GE

• Won by RUK from L

  • 20.58% increase in votes since GE

2025 opinion polls

• They’ve been polling to win the next GE

  • One poll in June had them 9 % points ahead of L

July 2025 - membership

• 227,000 members

  • Double that of C, only 80,000 behind L (who has the most)

High-profile defections

• Mainly from C

• 2024 - Lee Anderson

• 2025 - former Cabinet ministers

  • David Jones

  • Sir Jake Berry

September 2025 - current policies - Britannia Card policy

• Plan to attract wealthy individuals to the UK with:

  • Special tax regime

  • £250,000 fee for 10 years of residency

    • This could supposedly fund the ‘Britannia workers’ dividend,’ a tax-free annual £600-1,000 payout to 2.5m low-paid full-time workers

• Tax Policy Associates’ (independent think tank) thoughts

  • This could cost £34bn in lost revenue over 5 years

September 2025 - current policies - 4-point immigration plan

1. ‘Stop the boats’ carrying migrants across the Channel

2. Freeze all ‘non-essential’ legal migration

3. Take the UK out of the ECHR to use offshore processing centres to allow ‘0 illegal migrants’ to settle in the UK

4. Set up a new Dept of Immigration

• Entails: taking illegal migrants back to France, deport foreign-born criminals at the end of their jail terms

September 2025 - current policies - reduction in govt spending + policies this would fund

• Reduce govt spending by £50bn/year

• This would fund manifesto pledges like:

  • Raising the income tax threshold from £12,571 to £20,000, therefore exempting £6m people

  • Scrapping VAT in energy bills

  • Lifting the VAT threshold on businesses to £150,000

  • Cutting fuel duty and corporation tax

  • Raising the inheritance tax threshold to £2m

September 2025 - current policies - the environment

• Scrap 2050 net-0 targets and green levies

  • In order to bring down energy bills

• Fast-track North Sea oil and gast licences

• Do more to enable fracking

September 2025 - current policies - ‘culture war’ issues

• Ban teaching of ‘transgender ideology’ in schools

• Scrap DEI

September 2025 - current policies - economics

• More left-wing economic policies due to trying to expand support base

  • Nationalisation of key industries

September 2025 - current policies - ‘Operation Restoring Justice’

• “Disapply” the 1951 Refugee Convention, the UN Convention against Torture and the Council of Europe Anti-Trafficking Convention

• Repeal the Human Rights Act 1998 (HRA)

  • Replace it with a “British Bill of Rights”

• Pass an Illegal Migration (Mass Deportation Bill)

  • Would enable the deportation of up to 600,000 people

RUK impact on Labour - immigration policies

• Pledged to create a ‘UK Border and Immigration Control Agency' to ‘stop the boats’ and ‘smash the gangs’ that facilitate channel crossings

• Meeting w/Macron for the ‘one in one out’

• Committed to bringing down net migration through:

  • Tougher English language requirements for migrants (B2 from B1)

  • Lengthening the time visa holders have to wait before applying for settlement

  • Increasing salary requirements for ‘general skilled workers’ by 50% to £38,700

  • Reducing the number of skilled workers visas

RUK impact on the Tories pre-election - immigration

• Illegal Migration Act (2023)

  • Prevented those who enter the UK through unauthorised routes from claiming asylum

• Rwanda Scheme

  • Tried to send asylum seekers to Rwanda for processing

RUK impact on the Tories post-election - immigration

• 10 years (not 5) before applications can be made for ILR

  • Then: 5 years (not 12 months) before applications can be made for British Citizenship

• If you’ve claimed benefits or housing aid on a work visa, you can’t have ILR