essay plans

evaluate the relative importance of different factors in voting behaviour

factors are important (age)

• There is arguably a clear correlation between age and voting patterns, with older people leaning towards the Conservative Party and younger voters leaning towards the Labour Party

  • E.g., in 2017 Labour had 47% more support from voters aged 18-19 than Conservatives. This may be explained by Corbyn's positive social media presence

• This is thought to be due to the Conservative Party being most likely to protect the material interests of older people, and because older people are less likely to vote for radical changes to society, as supported by Labour, especially under Corbyn

• Therefore it could be suggested that age as a factor has relative importance over voting behaviour

factors aren’t important (age)

• HOWEVER despite growing turnout amongst the 'Under 25' age demographic, turnout amongst the young is still very low

  • E.g., in 2017, 84% of people over the age of 70 voted but only 57% of people aged 18-19 voted

• ALSO in some key elections, such as 1979 and 1997, age voting did not seem to be crucial factor in determining how people voted.

  • In 1997, in all age categories, the majority of people voted Labour, with the difference being most marked by those under 34 (49% Labour to 28% Conservative) although the gap narrows towards the over 55s (39% Labour to 36% Conservative).

  • Although Blair was deliberately marketed as a young, charismatic leader in line with the Brit Pop craze, he was clearly trusted with older voters

factors are important (social class)

• it can be determined that social class has historically had a large influence over how people vote, with the working class supporting Labour and the middle classes supporting the Conservative Party

  • The way you voted was part of your class identity. To be middle or upper class was to be Conservative. Voting Conservative added to your status. Voting Labour expressed your working class solidarity

• parties also used to cater to specific classes

  • 1979 GE Thatcher vowed to curb TUs, gaining support from ABC1 classes

• 1979 GE

  • conservatives won 59% AB votes and 34% DE votes

  • labour won 24% AB votes and 49% DE votes

factors aren’t imporant (social class)

• HOWEVER it can be argued that social class is becoming increasingly unimportant as a demographic to determine how people decide to vote

• This is due to class dealignment, with the importance of identifying with a social class declining in the UK

  • people not identifying w a certain class due to decline in industrial society and less traditional class based jobs

• 2019 GE

  • conservatives won 45% AB votes and 41% DE votes

  • labour won 30% AB votes and 39% DE votes

  • more issue based voting due to brexit

  • This shows that political identification with a particular party is weakening. The fact conservatives lead in the DE unskilled category shows an extraordinary inversion of working class support from Labour.

  • This clearly shows that social class no longer has a massively important role in voting patterns.

• 2024 GE

  • labour won 36% AB votes, more than conservative

  • ABC1 disillusionment from tories due to poor governing competency

    • 3 tory PMs in 5 years

factors are important (ethnicity)

• Ethnicity has historically affected how people decide to vote in GEs due to people often seeking a political party which represents their identity

• There is a link between ethnicity and voting behaviour shown through Labour tending to benefit from the votes of people belonging to ethnic minority groups. This may be because the Labour Party has been more closely associated with equality legislation or support for immigration

  • 64% BME voting for Labour in 2019

• It can also be argued that because most ethnic minority groups experience lower income levels and higher unemployment compared to white groups, therefore the ethnic minority support of Labour can be explained by social class factors HOWEVER class dealignment is becoming more prevalent

• In the 2017 GE, the Conservative Party secured only 19% of ethnic minority votes, whereas Labour secured 73%

• The Conservative Party has also historically been hostile to immigration, particularly from 2020 onwards, with the introduction of the Rwanda scheme.

  • conservatives won 26% white votes and 17% BME votes

  • labour won 33% white votes and 46% BME votes

  • conservatives largely unpopular with BME voters

factors aren’t important (ethnicity)

• There is an established Hindu and Sikh backing for the Conservative Party, showing that not all ethnic minorities sway towards the Labour Party

  • Hindu and Sikh communities also more prosperous and well established and are becoming increasingly middle class, explaining their Conservative voting.

factors are important (media - PRESS/NEWSPAPERS)

• the media's impact can be seen through endorsements and through social media campaigns.

• unlike broadcast media in the UK that must remain neutral, the press can express their political opinion, with papers like the Sun and the Telegraph supporting the Conservatives, and the Guardian and the Mirror supporting Labour.

• 1992 general election

  • the Sun wrote a headline stating, "If Kinnock wins today will the last person to leave Britain, please turn out the lights," alluding to their preference against Neil Kinnock (leader of the Labour Party).

  • Following the Conservatives' victory at this election, the Sun published a headline "it's the Sun wot won it."

• This demonstrates the influence that media endorsements can have on voting behaviour, ultimately affecting the outcome of general elections.

Thus, the influence of media endorsements is notable when considering the above examples.

factors aren’t important (media PRESS/NEWSPAPERS)

• However, the readership of newspapers has declined by over 70% since the 1990s meaning the influence of the media has fallen when compared to the 90s.

• 2017 general election

  • the sun and daily mail underwent a viscous smear campaign against Corbyn to undermine labour at the general election, with the Sun releasing a newspaper the day before the elections with the headline "jezzas jihadi comrades".

  • furthermore, Corbyn was only supported by one newspaper.

  • Despite these labours vote share increases by 10% in 2017 and he gained 30 seats which emphasises the lack of influence the media has on the outcome of elections as the media campaign against Corbyn failed.

• Therefore, the media isn't influential in deciding election.

factors are important (media - SOCIAL MEDIA)

• Social media is how younger voters participate in politics, and the fact that parties spend so much on campaigns on Facebook and other platforms shows that parties think social media is influential

• The web is unregulated so it's possible for any group to gain some political traction

  • Especially useful to small parties like Green or Reform, which don’t have resources, in terms of membership and national organisation, to be able to compete with the large parties in conventional campaigning

    • Nigel Farage got 1mil more followers on tiktok since 2024 GE, with reform overall gaining a lot of popularity on tiktok

    • reform gained 677 seats in 2025 local elections

factors are not important (media - SOCIAL MEDIA)

• the tory party entered the 2024 GE w a robust social media strategy, spending almost £1mil on social media campaigns

• Despite these advantages, the conservatives struggled to convince voters that as the government that had preceded over the cost of living crisis, the immigration crisis and the NHS backlog they were the party to remedy these problems

• shows that social media is not impactful when it comes to voting