Demographic factors affecting voting

How many of the middle class vote did the Conservatives win in the 1979 election?

59%

How much of the DE voters did Labour win in the 1997 election?

49%

How has there been a shift in how class is classified?

Over 50% of workers are now to be found in service industries, working in small units with weak trade union tradition. Led many people in C2 to consider themselves middle class

How important is class?

Least important

How much of the DE class voted for Conservative in the 2019 election and Labour

Conservative - 41% Labour -39%

Why did the Conservatives appeal to C2 voters in 2019 and now Reform

Policies such as immigration and Brexit has driven them to the right because they believe that their jobs are in jeopardy

How is class not important: 1997 election

Appealed to the AB C1 voters by adopting Thatcherite economic policies

Ethnicity: Important factor for Labour

Labour secured 73% of ethnic minority votes compared to Conservative party receiving 19%. This is because the labour party has been more closely associated with equality legislation or support for immigration

Ethnicity: Dealignment from Labour

Rising claims of antisemitism within the party under Corbyn and recent suspension of Diane Abbot over antisemitic comments

Ethnicity: Not important

There is an established Hindu and Sikh backing for the Conservative party, showing that not all ethnic minorities sway towards Labour. There is an increased social mobility of BAME voters in the AB C1 classes

Age: Not important in 1997

In all age categories, the majority of people voted Labour.

Age: Not important due to low turnout

The low turnout from young voters could suggest that the impact of age is exaggerated. 18-24 (47% in 2019) compared to over 65 (74%)

Age is the most important factor: 2017 election

Youthquake. 67% of 18-24 year olds voted Labour. The young turned out at a higher rate at 54% rather than a typical 3%. This was enough to prevent the Conservative party from winning an overall majority in Parliament

Age is the most important factor: First time voters (18-19)

Labour is 47% points ahead. Among those over 70, Conservatives had a lead of 50% points

For every 10 years older a voter is…..

Their chance of voting Tory increases by around 9 points and the chance of them voting Labour decreases by 9 points

Age is the most important factor: Turnout

57% of 18 and 19 year olds voted, and those age 70+ was 84%

Trend of gender voting

More men voting Conservative than women. 2019- 47% of men voting Conservative compared to 42% of women. Due to women feeling more compassionate for social issues, and don’t like populism as much

Younger voters gender gap in 2024 election regarding minor parties

18-24: 19.7 % of women voting Green compared to 13% of men. At the opposite end of the scale, 12.9% of young men voted for Reform UK compared to just 5.9% of women.

Difference in issue voting between men and women

40.7 per cent of women aged 18-34 ranked living costs as their most important election issue compared to 29 per cent of men, and women were more likely than men to highlight living costs as a top issue across all age groups. Men, by contrast, were much more likely to rank immigration as an important election issue across all age groups but particularly men aged 18-34 (12 per cent) compared to women of the same age (4.9 per cent).

Why is gender not the most important demographic factor?

Cancel each other out. It’s more of an age issue. Over 65+ both men and women vote 64% conservative, much more age based than gender based.

Education trend

More educated, more likely to have more progressive views

People with a degree voting Labour (2019)

43%

People with a degree voting Conservative (2019)

29%

Most important factor

Age

Likelihood of voting Green

As of January 2026, roughly 45% of 18-24 year olds indicated they would vote Green, marking a significant increase from previous years.

Likelihood to vote reform: Age difference

10% of 18-24 year olds compared to 33% of 50+

Region usual trend

Traditionally, Labour have had a stronger-voter base in the north (red wall) whilst the Conservative party tended to perform better in the south and south-east (blue wall)

What is the blue wall?

Parliamentary seats in the South that have traditionally voted Conservative.

Labour vote share in red wall seats

24.5%

Conservative vote share in red wall

24.5% (2019)

Labour vote shares in the blue wall in the South East (2024)

45

Conservative vote shares in the blue wall in the South - east 2024?

20%