EQ3 - spheres of influence and implications of this?

Ownership and use of physical resources

• as natural resources start to run out claims become important and is crucial to gaining superpower status

• cross-boarders - resources cross international boundaries (transboundary resources) - hard to divide

• territorial dispute - 2+ claim ownership or a country may not recognise an international boarder

• human rights - some resources (water) are seen as human rights and due to water becoming more essential for development countries may treat it as more commercially profitable

Disputes over resources

• dispute over 2+ countries wanting to use the same resource

• dispute between countries with the same EEZ - UN can be asked to broker a decision

• dispute may arise when one country wants to use a resource and another doesnt

• disputes over interests in unclaimed territory

CASE STUDY - Arctic oil and gas (resource disputes)

• reserves of oil and gas in the Arctic Circle (90mil barrels of oil)

• Area around the north pole isnt protected well from resource exploitation

• Canada, USA, Russia, Norway, Denmark made territorial claims for areas closest to their country for the Arctic ocean and the Lomonosov Ridge

• overlapping claimes based on their EEZs

• Russia planted a Russian flag on the seabed in 2007, intensifying tensions

• the loss of ice means the region is easily navigable and test drilling are likley to begin

Overlapping spheres of influence

sphere of influence = territorial area that a country has influence over (politically, economically and culturally)

• created by claiming teritory and the level of cultural and political sway

  • wishing to expand territory (resources or trade routes)

  • disputed breakup of a territory following armed conflict

  • wishing to defend the territorial and cultural rights of a particular group

• Disputes are likely to occur when the spheres of influence of 2 powers overlap

CASE STUDY - south china sea (spheres of influence disputes)

• china looked to expand marine territory to make use of fishing grounds and oil and gas reserves

  • claimed a number of small and uninhabited islands (Spratly Islands) and expanded the EEZ

• Other countries (Veitnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Taiwan) have disputed chinas claims

• China has responded by posting naval presence and constructed artificial islands for oil exploration - disrupted fish breeding cycles and destroyed coral

• Claiming and creating new islands is a direct breach of UN convention on the law of the sea

CASE STUDY - annexation of Crimea (tensions causing open conflict)

Annexation = the act of one country seizing part of an established territory without permission

• collapse of the USSR meant independant states in E Europe kept close ties but western ideologies created tensions - tried to maintain military presence

• in 2014 Russia annexed the Crimerian Peninsula in S Ukraine and took control of military base and parlament

  • removed from the G8 and sactioned (travel bans and stopped trade)

• In 2022 the conflict escalated when Russia invaded Ukraine

Intellectual Property rights

prevents an idea or design being used by another person or company in order to profit from it. Theft of intellectual property rights is illegal and companies can lose revenue

counterfeiting

• the World intellectual property organisation regulates intellectual property and enables creators to protect their work

• to use the intellectural property they must pay royalties which generate income

• 2 types of intelectual property theft

  • produce counterfiet goods that mach the real brand

  • produce their own version using features of the original - goes to court to decide if its different enough

Tensions over counterfeiting

• has a large economic impact - cost the EU US$134 bil in 2019

• counterfeit goods account for 2.5% of world trade in 2019

• strains economic and political relationships between countries

• countries are seen as week if not stopping counterfeit goods and will trade may stop with them as they are seen to try and undermine the global trade system

• Eg. China and Turkey

• affect TNC operations

  • reduce investment in R&D in countries with counterfeiting and may withdraw wider operations

Relationships between emerging and developing countries

• they are similar to the relationship of superpowers as they also rely on low prices for raw materials

• but they can provide cheaper manufactured goods in retuen

• emerging powers have less to lose then superpowers when forging strong relationships with developing countries

China and Africa

• increasing volume of trade with Africa in raw materials

• China is one of the main sources for FDI in Africa - in 2020 they invested US$4.23bil with 5 recieving 50%

• China provided foreign aid - grants and low interest loans for those with important trade relations (Angola) and invested in water treatment plants

• FDI is used to improve infrastructure and fund energy projects: Djibloho Dam

opportunities of relationships between emerging and developing

• Chinese investment will encourage further investment from foreign states and firms and benefit local companies and trade in africa

• investment in hydroelectric power plans encourages green energy (17 plants)

• investment projects creates employment opportunities

• more people in Africa can buy the cheep goods from China due to growing marketplace

challenges of relationships between emerging and developing

• Chinas relationship with Africa is based on trade of resources that will run out so may withdraw FDI

• neocolonial relationship which exploit politically weak and vulnerable countries

• the race to supply China has caused environmental degredation - open cast mining for copper has destroyed Zambia and unlikely to recover due to depth - oil spills in Nigeria

• more competition against African manufacturing harming local economies

• impact on heath in metal extraction industries

Rising economic importance of Asian countries

China and India are developing strong links with the rest of the world

• asias geopolitical influnece is increasing

• economic centre of gravity shifts to asia

• by 2030, 27 of the worlds 33 megacities will be in asia - large markets for goods

• in 2020, 15 south pacific countries, ASEAN, agreed to form the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership which is the largest trading block - 1/3 of world economy

Rise in importance has created tensions

• strained political relations with China and Hong Kong, Tibet and Taiwan over leadership

• South China Sea

• Tensions between India and Pakistan over dispute of Kashmir

middle east’s allies

• Isreal - USA and US

• Iraq - previously soviet union but generally to USA (but Gulf and Iraq war - USA tried to end the iraqi leader)

• Syria - Russia, China, and Iran

• Saudi, Quatar, UAE - USA and UK due to economic ties (oil)

Arab Spring

• young people looking for change led to uprisings in the Middle easy and North Africa

• uprisings about economic decline and corruption

• leaders struggled to keep order and resulted to armed response and the rise of terrorists groups and aurocratic rule

Systems of Governance - middle east

• newly established systems arent providing stable democracies

• the constitution for modern iraq qas in 2005 but conflict continued as separatists highlighted weaknesses in the govts strategies

Division of teritory - middle east

• division between religious and ethnic groups cause tension

• Isreal founded in 1948 and conflict with Palestine has been ongoing

Cultural ideologies - middle east

• tensions when heritage or belief system is thought to be threatened

• the Islamic state (IS) is an extremist group who is rooted in Sunni Islam

  • attempted to set up a religious state under islamic rule

  • growth of IS is due to imbalance of power caused by the Iraq war

alliances can present issues for superpowers

• USA, UK, Russia and some european countries have a history of selling arms to the middle east

• large numbers of refugees have been created (6.6mil from Syria since 2011) putting strain on neighbours and causing tension

• countries caught between conflicting alliances - Turkey, a member of NATO, supports the fight against IS that the Kurds joined but Turkey are in conflict with the Kurds

• Some, while not supporting terrorist groups, dont actively work against them allowing growth

resources in the middle east

• involvement in middle east is mainly due to oil

• middle east holds 48% of oil reserves - stability in the region affects the world

• oil prices rise during conflict - sanctions can help as others compete to fill supply

• climate means reliance on imports for food

• resources that are scarce (water) cause tension - damming transboundary water sources to favour one country will highten tensions

superpowers experiencing economic and social problems US and EU

• EU’s GBP per capita has been decline - due to lower GDP countries joining the EU

• shift from manufacturing to service - job losses and economic decline

• reliant on migrant labour in some sectors - emerging countries are becoming more attractive

• aging populations - high dependancy ratio

  • 2021 21% of population in EU was 65+

• struggle to attract investment due to higher costs

• global financial crisis of 2008 was sparked by the collapse of the housing market in USA and caused global recession

Maintaining military power is an economic cost

• 2018 the US and EU spent 3.3% and 1.4% of GDP on military - total US$900bn

• maintain power by updating equiptment - can be found unsustainable due to cost

• established powers have the largest capability: Tridant the UK’s nuclear sub cost £20bn

• RAF plans to introduce new aircraft called the Tempest by 2035 (£2bn each)

• threat of terrorism is a reason for military spending and spend lots on intelligence gathering and int operations to prevent future attacks

Space exploration

• the space race of 1950s and 60s was an example of 2 powers investing in space exploration (US sent the first man to walk on the moon)

• annual budget for NASA was US$22.6bn (2019-2020)

• India launched first space programme in 1962 and since has launched hundereds of satelites, mars orbit in 2014 and 4th on the moon in 2023

Emerging powers challenge superpowers

• global population growth is slowing (fertility rate at 2.4 in 2020) - reduce importance of big populatio to be a powerful nation

• unforseen problems (like COVID) may disproportionatley affect the most advanced and emerging may gain more power

• future superpowers may be those able to maintain self-suffiency when renewable and nonrenewable sources are in short supply - control trade prices of resources

Possible future outcomes for power balance

• unipolar - continued dominance of USA

• bipolar - in the short term (until 2050) there is gradual division of power between the USA and China until there is a bipolar system

• multipolar - ongoing challenges for USA and EU mean emerging economies will share power