Chapter 17 - Decisions, judgements, and reasoning

Brain and Cognition

Syllogism

A three-statement logical form consisting of two premises followed by a conclusion.

For example:

Premise 1: All are A are B

Premise 2: All B are C

Conclusion: Therefore, all A are C

Belief Bias

The proneness of people to ignore the logical form of an argument and focus on their prior world knowledge.

For example:

Premise 1: All poodles are animals

Premise 2: All animals are wild

Conclusion: Thus, all poodles are wild

(People say the conclusion is wrong as their world knowledge does not accord with this conclusion)

Conditional Reasoning

A type of logical reasoning that involves an if-then relationship between statements. If P, then Q

Antecedent

The if clause in a conditional reasoning statement. For example, if it rains, then the streets will be wet.

Consequent

The then clause in a conditional reasoning statement. For example, if it rains, then the streets will be wet.

Modus Ponens

Affirming the antecedent. Saying that the antecedent is true. (Valid inference)

Modus Tollens

Denying the consequent. Saying that the consequent is not true. (Valid inference)

illicit conversion

All cats are mammals

All mammals are cats

(illicit conversion is committed, because it implies that all mammals are cats, which is not true)

Confirmation bias (Searching for Positive Evidence)

A cognitive bias where individuals focus on information that confirms their existing beliefs.

Mental models

Mental representations of meanings of the terms in reasoning problems.

Distance effect / discriminability effect

The greater the difference between the two stimuli, the faster the decision that they differ.

Hypothesis testing

The essence of hypothesis testing is to conclude that the if portion (the null hypothesis) is false based on an outcome that denies the consequent of the null hypothesis

If-then problems

Reasoning tasks that involve conditional statements (For example, "If P, then Q")

Heuristic

An informal method or guideline used to make decisions or judgments, often a 'rule of thumb'.

Conjunction Fallacy

The mistaken belief that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one.

For example:

Serena likes football

Serena is a Bears fan who likes football

SNARC Effect

A cognitive phenomenon where responses to smaller numbers are quicker with the left hand and larger numbers with the right.

Psychophysics

The study of the relationship between physical stimuli and the psychological experiences they evoke.

Just Noticeable Difference (JND)

The smallest amount by which two stimuli must differ for the difference to be detected.

Symbolic comparisons

Comparisons not between two physical objects or stimuli, but between two mental symbols.

Symbolic distance effect

Differences between symbols are judged more rapidly when they differ considerably on some dimension, for example through shape.

Semantic Congruity Effect

Faster decision-making when the dimension judged matches the semantic dimension.

Number magnitude

Banks. Work on judgements of numerical magnitude suggests that the mental representation of numerical magnitude is nonlinear.

Imagery

The formation of mental pictures or representations of objects, events, or ideas.

Representativeness Heuristic

When we judge the probability of uncertain events, we do so on the basis of the event’s representativeness.

Availability Heuristic

A cognitive bias where individuals judge the frequency of events based on how easily examples come to mind.

Falsification Principle

A principle asserting that to prove a theory false, one must demonstrate that its predictions do not hold.

Semantic orderings

The tendency to assume that small samples will be as representative of the population from which they are drawn as large samples.

Geographical distance

The farther away cities are, the closer together they are in mental representation, according to a study by Hoyoak and Mah.

Algorithm

A procedure that is guaranteed to provide the correct answer if carried out correctly. For example, a formula

Normative model

A model that describes how people should behave or make decisions if they were perfectly rational.

Descriptive model

A model that describes how people actually behave or make decisions, often highlighting deviations from normative models due to cognitive limitations and biases.

Insensitivity to sample size

The tendency to assume that small samples will be as representative of the population from which they are drawn as large samples.

Law of small numbers

The mistaken belief that small samples should resemble the population from which they are drawn.

Law of large numbers

The principle that as the number of observations of a random phenomenon increases, the sample mean approaches the true mean of the underlying distribution.

Stereotypes

Generalized beliefs about particular groups of people, often based on oversimplification or inaccurate information.

Beliefs

Mental acceptances that something is true or real.

Availability heuristic

A mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given person's mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method or decision. We tend to overestimate the likelihood of events that are easily recalled.

Anchoring and adjusting

A cognitive bias that describes the common human tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered (the "anchor") when making decisions. Subsequent judgments and decisions are then made by adjusting away from that anchor, but often insufficiently.  

Heuristic familiarity bias

Judging events as more frequent/important as they are more familiar.

Salience / vividness bias

Type of availability heuristic. It refers to the tendency to overestimate the importance of information that stands out and is easily recalled, often due to its emotional or vivid nature.

Simulation heuristic

A mental strategy for evaluating events based on how easily one can imagine them unfolding in a particular way. It's often used for counterfactual thinking.

Counterfactual reasoning

Thinking about past events and imagining how they might have turned out differently.

Downhill change

A type of counterfactual thinking where individuals imagine how an outcome could have been worse.

Blaming the victim

The tendency to attribute responsibility or blame to the victims of crime or misfortune.

Hindsight bias

The tendency, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, despite there having been little or no objective basis for predicting it. Also known as the "I-knew-it-all-along" phenomenon.

Simulation heuristic

A mental strategy for evaluating events based on how easily one can imagine them unfolding in a particular way. It's often used for counterfactual thinking.

Satisficing

A decision-making strategy that aims for a satisfactory or "good enough" result, rather than the optimal solution. This often occurs when time or cognitive resources are limited.

Recognition heuristic

A heuristic used when people must make judgments between alternatives. If one alternative is recognized and the other is not, people infer that the recognized alternative has the higher value with respect to the criterion.

“Take the best” conjunction fallacy

A lexicographic decision strategy where choices are made by sequentially considering the most important attribute. If one option is better on that attribute, it is chosen. If there is a tie, the next most important attribute is considered, and so on.

Naive physics

People's intuitive, common-sense understanding of the physical world, which often deviates from actual physical laws.

Prototypicality heuristic

Categorizing objects or events based on how well they match a typical or average example (prototype) of that category.