elections and referendums

functions of elections

• select representatives

• choose a gov

• remove a gov

• participation

• bestow legitimacy

• be educated

types of electoral

• plurality - only need one more vote than anyone lese to win

• majoritarian - candidates expected to achieve majority

• proportional

• representative

• hybrid

FPTP system

• one vote per person

• plurality

• benefits larger parties w safe seats

• single party gov

FPTP advantages

• simple

• traditional

• clear result

• gov accountability

• clear MP constituency link

• excludes extremist parties

  GENERAL ELECTIONS

FPTP disadvantages

• little choice- cannot choose between different strands within the main parties- 2019, YouGov reported that 32% of voters voted tactically

• votes unequal value- "winner's bonus."- In 2019, the Conservative Party won 56% of the seats with just 43.6% of the vote- 2019, the Liberal Democrats won 11.5% of the vote but only 1.7% of the seats

• elective dictatorship

• Lack of Representation in Constituencies:

  • Often, over half of Members of Parliament (MPs) do not command a majority of support in their constituencies.

  • 2015 election, Alistair McDonnell of the SDLP in Northern Ireland won with just 24.5% of the vote in Belfast South, representing only 14.7% of the electorate when considering turnout

• excludes smaller parties

SV

• Each voter has a first and second preference.

• If a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference votes, they are automatically elected.

• If no candidate achieves this, all candidates except the top two are eliminated.

• Second preference votes for the top two candidates are added to determine the overall winner.

SV advantages

• Ensures broad support for the winner, giving them a strong mandate.

• Simple and straightforward for voters to use.

• Offers voters greater choice compared to First Past the Post due to the first and second preferences.

• Has allowed some independent candidates to win.

SV disadvantages

• he winner doesn't need to get an absolute majority of the votes cast.

• To have influence, voters need to identify the likely top two candidates, which isn't always clear.

• Votes for minor parties may be wasted if their candidates don't make it to the top two.

• The winner may be the least unpopular candidate rather than the most popular, as second preference votes can change the outcome.

• If used in constituencies in UK Parliament elections, wasted votes would still be an issue, though less so than under First Past the Post.

single transferable vote

• proportional

• large multi member

• as many votes as candidates

• Rank voters

• formula used to determine quota of votes for one seat

NI parl, SCOT council

advantages of STV

• The system is highly proportional, with a close match between votes and seats.

• It offers a high degree of voter choice, allowing selection among candidates from the same or different parties.

• Voters can cast multiple votes.

• In Northern Ireland, it has enabled power-sharing between nationalists and unionists.

• Governments formed through this system usually have majority support due to required cooperation.

• After the 2022 Scottish local elections, 94% of councils had no overall control, highlighting its tendency to produce coalition governments.

disadvantages of stv

• lost MP - constituent link

• complicated

• multi-party gov

• result takes longer

aditional member system

• hybrid

• FPTP

• closed party list

• 2 votes, 1 per system

• vote for candidate + party

SCOT PARL, WELSH PARL, LONDON ASSEMBLY

Advantages of AMS

• strong MP link

• proportional representation

• split votes- 2021 Scottish Parliament election, the Greens won 1.29% of constituency votes but 8.12% of the Top-Up votes, gaining eight seats

• increase in ethnic + women candidates

• stable gov-

disadvantages of AMS

• 2 categories

• most vote same way

• Closed list system: A closed list system is used for the party vote. Parties rank candidates before the election, and voters have no influence over this ranking.

• single party domination

• difficult for strong + effective gov to be formed

People vote based on

• rational choice

• issue voting

• valence/ government performance

• class

• gender

• geog

• age

• ethnicity

class

• Class has declined in importance as a determinant of voting behavior.

• In 2019, 42% of the AB category (managerial) voted Conservative, compared to 78% in 1964.

• 34% of the DE category (semi- and unskilled workers, unemployed, pensioners) voted Labour, compared to 64% in 1964.

• Labour has struggled to be associated with protecting the interests of blue-collar working classes, especially in the context of Brexit.

Age

• Age is a key determinant of voter choice.

• In 2017, YouGov called it the "new dividing line" in British politics.

• Older voters are more likely to own homes and vote Conservative.

• Younger voters are more likely to vote Labour or other left-wing parties.

• In 2019, only 22% of 18-29 year olds voted Conservative, while over 60% of over 60s did.

• Turnout is also much higher among older voters, benefiting the Conservative party.

• Recent research suggests that Millennials may not become more conservative as they age, which could be a problem for the Conservative party in the future.

GEOG

• The Conservatives gained seats in the Southeast and East Midlands in 1997.

• The SNP broke Labour's dominance in Scotland in 2010.

• In 2019, the Conservatives broke parts of the "red wall" in the north.

• The divide is now largely between large cities (Liverpool, Manchester) for Labour and rural constituencies/towns for the Conservatives.

• However, the popularity of the Conservatives has declined recently, and Labour is likely to win back many of the seats they lost in 2019.

education

• Education has become a key dividing line in recent elections.

• Those with fewer formal qualifications are more likely to support the Conservatives.

• Those with a university education are more likely to vote Labour or the Liberal Democrats.

• In the Brexit referendum, 75% of those without qualifications supported Brexit, while 70% of those with a university degree supported Remain.

• In 2019, 43% of those with a degree or higher voted Labour, 17% for the Lib Dems, and 29% for the Conservatives, while the Conservative party won 58% of the votes among those without a degree.

gender

• generally vote same

• pre 1997 women voted cons - thatcher

• post women more likely vote labour

1979 general election

• followed winter discontent strikes

• callaghan v thatcher

• cons win - 43 seat majority

• allowed thatcher privatise, reduce strikes, new radical policies- thatcherism

1997 general election

• cons in power since 1979

• 179 seat majority

• blair v major

• new labour

• implement devolution, minimum wage, constitution reform

• The ability of New Labour to win middle-class voters.

• Rational choice and issue voting were important due to Labour's move to the center ground.

• The Conservatives' wrecked image as a party of economic competence.- black wednesday

• Leadership was vital as a valence factor.

• The media was important, with Labour benefiting from winning support from sections of the press traditionally supporting the Conservative party.

2017 general election

• may called snap election percieve weak leader

• corbyn poll ratings very low

• may assumed she’d win majority

• May's plan to change social care, dubbed the "dementia tax," received considerable backlash, forcing a policy reversal.

• hung parl, cons lost 13 seats, labour won 50

• 2 party politics - combined 80%

• may negociated brexit but with weakened leadership so unable to deliver manifesto

Referendums

• single issue

• ad hoc

• non- binding

• direct democracy

• 3 national - 1995, 2011, 2016

• regional referendums dealt w devolution

why are referendums called

• constituional change

• cabinet divisions

• testing public opinion

• political pressure

• party divisions

• coalition agreement

• establish peace

adv of referendums

• allow votes direct say

• prevent gov pursuing unpopular policies

• give greater legitimacy to constituional reform

• enable more participation - 84.6% scot 2014

• provide poltiical education on core issues

• give voters new choices

disadvantage referendums

• over simplify complex issues

• undermine parliament

• allow politicans to pass difficult decisions

• can be exploited by gov

• create public apathy

• allow ill-informed decisions

• allow unaccountable groups to manipulate public

Explain and analyse the role of the media in any three elections you have studied. One must be 1997, one earlier and one later

- 1979 Thatcher media strategy- support key newspapers- engaged with tv - 'iron lady'

- 1997 Blair and new labour- cultivated relationships w sun- shifted 1992- youthful and modern compared major grey image-

- 2019 Johnson used social media taregt- get brexit done- corbyn struggled w negative framing campaigns against him - widened cons reach to red wall seats

Explain and analyse 3 arguments in favour of reforming the system used for Westminster elections (FPTP)

* Proportional representation- fptp leads to bad results- 2019 cons won 43.6% vote but 56%seats - lib 11.5% but 1.6% seats- PR systems better

* benefit smaller parties etc

* Better voter engagement- discourages participation due to tactical voting and lack of choice is safe seats- PR systems encourage diversity- coutnries germany or new zealand turnout is higher as they have PR- increase political competition ensuring voter concerns are met Reduce wasted votes- 2019- 70% votes didn't contribute to electing an MP- reforms to stv ensure votes count better- improve voter morale and apathy

Explain and analyse 3 arguments for keeping FPTP

* Simplicity and efficiency - reduces confusion - ensures rapid results- accessible - promotes political stability as can begin work immediately

* Strong stable gov- produces majority and less reliance on coalitions- 2019 gave cons 80 seat majority allowing brexit agenda - coalitions lead to instability and gridlock as seen in countries like israel- strong gov ensures clear accountability - reduces extremist parties gaining influence in coalitions

* Clear constituency link- direct link to MP's- connection in diluted in coalitions -provides tangible link

Explain and analyse the role of policies and manifestos in 3 elections you have studied

- 1979 Cons thatch defeated labour- Conservatives emphasized reducing union power, free-market reforms, and tackling inflation.-Labour focused on traditional leftist policies, including strong union support.- thatcher’s policies aligned with public demand for economic stability and reform after the "Winter of Discontent."- issue driven manifesto helped

- 1997 Labour landslide- New Labour, New Life for Britain" emphasized modernization, public service investment, and economic prudence.- Abandonment of Clause IV reassured voters wary of socialism- Manifesto’s centrist policies broadened Labour's appeal- reflective public priorities

- 2019 Cons landslide- “Get Brexit Done” slogan resonated with Leave voters.- Labour’s expansive policies (e.g., nationalization) failed to shift focus from Brexit- Manifestos amplified political divisions -Manifesto simplicity and alignment with public mood

Explain and analyse three arguments in favour of greater use of referendums

P1- enhance direct democracy w direct say- Brexit ref 2016- although low turnout or misinformation occurs- approach reinforces democratic legitimacy and will of ppl

P2-resolves controversial issues between gov- scot indepen 2014 temporarily settled issue w independence- although doesn’t permanently solve issues- can reduce political paralysis

P3- stimulates political engagement- brexit ref 72% turnout- although engagement is uneven w large issues oversimplified to polarize- engaged citizens more likely to participate as informed electorate

Explain and analyse the role of personalities in 3 elections you have studied

- 1979 Thatcher v callaghan- T projected a determined and reformist image- C as weakened by the "Winter of Discontent."- Thatcher’s leadership style resonated with voters’ desire for strong governance, while Callaghan’s perceived complacency damaged Labour- EVAL Personality complemented policies, but the economic crisis amplified Thatcher’s appeal

- 1997 Blair v Major- B youthful, charismatic image embodied Labour’s modernization and optimism- M uncharismatic and associated with a divided, scandal-ridden government- Blair’s personal appeal reinforced Labour’s manifesto message- Blair’s personality was a driving factor in Labour’s landslide victory, emphasizing the leader’s role in shaping public trust

- 2019 Johnson v corbyn- J confident, populist image helped him connect with Brexit supporters C eadership was polarizing, with criticism of his handling of antisemitism and perceived ideological extremism- Johnson’s personal appeal contrasted with Corbyn’s divisiveness- Personality shaped voter perception and reinforced campaign narratives.

Explain and analyse 3 arguments against the greater use of referendums

P1- undermines rep democ bypassing elected- brexit led to serious gridlock- although Some argue they enhance legitimacy- Elected officials are better equipped to make informed decisions, balancing competing interests. Referendums can undermine this system by reducing decisions to binary choices

P2- oversimplifies complex issues- brexit didnt clarify details of eu leading to economic uncertainty- although Public education campaigns could mitigate this- Voters may lack the expertise to fully understand complex issues, making referendums prone to misinformation and emotional appeals.

P3-can polarize and deepen divisions- scot ref intensified divisions between unionists and independence supporters- although settle issues temporarily- Far from unifying, referendums can entrench opposing views, creating long-term societal rifts w current want scot independ

Explain and analyse three different models that explain voting behaviour

P1-social models- voting influenced by class, education etc- working-class voters aligned with Labour in the UK, while middle-class voters preferred Conservatives.-Decline in this pattern seen in 2019 with working-class "Red Wall" voters shifting to Conservatives- however applicable less now w dealignment- Highlights the importance of long-term social influences

P2- rational choice- 2010 many chose cons after dissatisfaction w labour financial crisis - 2019 cons brexit done chosen as clear- although ssumes voters have complete information and rationality overlooking emotional factors.- emphasizes short-term factors, such as party policies and leadership

P3-party identification model- PSYCHOLOGICAL ATTATCHMENT TO PARTY- strong loyalty to either laBOUR OR CONS- however Weakening in recent years due to dealignment and the rise of floating voters struggles to account for increasing volatility and issue-based shifts- Useful for understanding traditional voting behaviour but less relevant in a more fragmented political landscape.

Explain and analyse 3 circumstances in which referendums have been held

P1- constitutional change- eu ref- Cameron sought to resolve internal Conservative Party divisions and public dissatisfaction with EU membership- 52% vote to leave, significantly altering UK-EU relations and creating political and economic upheaval- however led to long term division-

P2- resolve divisive issues- scot ref - ed to a negotiated agreement between the UK and Scottish governments for a binding vote.- 55% voted to remain- eaving lasting political debate- provide a mechanism to address significant regional demands, though outcomes may not settle issues permanently.

P3- gov legitimization- good Friday agreement 1998- Ensured public support for a power-sharing agreement between unionists and nationalists.- Impact: 71% voted in favor, giving democratic legitimacy to the peace process and fostering stability.- Analysis: Referendums can legitimize major agreements but rely on broad public support for lasting success.

essay plan short 2 party v multiparyt

• intro

• representation

• stability

• policy innovation

• voter engagement

• conclusion

Rational Choice and Issue-Based Voting

• Rational Choice Theory:

  Voters behave like consumers, evaluating options to maximize personal benefit. The growth of a more educated electorate, especially with the rise of the internet and the abundance of information online, has increased the prevalence of rational choice theory.

• Economic Voting: Voters choose the party that will benefit them economically, often related to taxation policy. Homeowners are more likely to vote Conservative, while renters favor Labor.

• Issue-Based Voting: Voters support the party closest to their views on the most important policies, even if they disagree with other policies. The 2019 election saw 74% of Leave voters supporting Conservatives, including many "red wall" voters who had never voted Conservative before.

• Valence Issues: When there is little disagreement between parties in terms of policy, valence factors become more important.

2019 election

• Issue voting on Brexit was crucial to the result

• Leadership was important, especially Corbyn's unpopularity

• The campaign had little impact on the result

• Age and education remained important social factors

• A key regional shift occurred in the former red wall

problems contributing to cons demise in 2024 election

• The mishandling of COVID-19

• The partygate scandal

• Liz Truss's failed economic reforms in the autumn and winter of 2022

• cost living crisis

• starmer has significantly shifted the Labour Party back to the center

referendums examples

• 2011 AV referendum- 68% no 42% turnout- NATIONAL

• 2016 brexit 52% leave 72% turnout- NATIONAL

• 1997 scot devolution 74% yes 60% turnout

• 1975 EEC MEMBERSHIP- NATIONAL

• 1997 welsh assembly 50% yes 50% turnout

• northern ireland good friday - 71% yes 81% turnout

• scot independence 2014 55% no 84% turnout

regional referendum examples

• 1998 greater london authority - 72% yes 34% turnout

• north east regional assembly 78% no 47% turnout

• edingburh congestion cgange 74% no 61% turnout

• 2012 bristol directly elected mayor 53% yes 24% turnout