Climate change

Incoming radiation

Short-wave radiation (UV and visible light) from the Sun

Outgoing radiation

Long-wave radiation (IR) re-emitted by the Earth

Energy balance

Incoming radiation = outgoing radiation

Greenhouse gases

Gases that absorb long-wave radiation (IR) re-emitted by the Earth and warms the Earth. Examples include CO₂, CH₄, H₂O, NO₂, and CFCs.

Albedo

A measure of how much solar radiation a surface reflects or absorbs (0 = absorbs everything, 1 = reflects everything).

Global dimming

Usually occurs after a volcanic eruption, where particles are ejected into and suspended in the atmosphere, reflecting solar energy back into space and thereby decreasing temperature.

Milankovitch cycles

Factors that affect incoming solar energy

1. Earth’s orbit and eccentricity

2. Earth’s axial tilt and obliquity from 22.5 degrees to 24.5 degrees (currently 23.5 degrees) that causes seasons

3. Earth’s orbital procession: a wobble/gradual change on Earth’s axis, changing the timing of seasons, relative to its closest and farthest positions from the Sun

Negative feedback loop

A feedback mechanism whereby a stimulus is countered and balanced by bringing it back to a set range of conditions. An example of this is the formation of clouds.

Positive feedback loop

A feedback mechanism whereby the stimulus is reinforced and drives it further away from the initial conditions. An example of this is the thawing of permafrost.

Permafrost

Land that remains frozen (below the freezing point) for at least a year.

Enhanced greenhouse effect

Anthropogenically caused, where increased long-wave radiation is increasingly absorbed by greenhouse gases increasingly released into the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution. This offsets the energy balance and further warms the planet.

Causes of enhanced greenhouse effect

1. Increased animal agriculture

2. Increased combustion of fossil fuels

3. Increased deforestation + drying up of peatlands/destruction of carbon sinks due to urbanisation

Different energy requirements for LIC, MIC and HIC

LIC: Low emissions as there are few industries and also smaller demand for domestic consumption

MIC: Emerging industries and manufacturing power → industrial energy use is high but domestic consumption is not as high as in HIC → use large amounts of fossil fuels as they are readily available and relatively cheap compared to renewable energy

HIC: High energy requirements because of domestic consumption and industry → switching to renewable energy → stimulate economic growth and reduce direct emissions because they often contribute to carbon leakage and embedded emissions

Carbon leakage

Carbon emissions produced in countries with more lenient energy policies (e.g MIC) usually practiced in HIC.

Embedded emissions

Emissions that are physically released in a foreign country when manufacturing a product (e.g China producing greenhouse gases when manufacturing iPhones for Apple)

Consequences of climate change

• Ocean acidification (coral bleaching)

• Rising sea levels (impact on low-lying countries such as The Netherlands, and on sea trading)

• Increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events (e.g floods, droughts)

• Coastal erosion

• Displacement of individuals and communities

• Changes in the biosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, cryosphere and lithosphere in general (further elaborated in other flashcards)

Health hazards related to climate change

• Heatwaves/droughts

• Vector-borne diseases migrating poleward (Malaria, Dengue Fever) + introduction of other invasive species or unknown diseases

• Food and water insecurity (e.g in the Sahel region, Lake Chad, and parts of Asia like Bangladesh)

Climate migrants

• Environmental emergency migrants: flee temporarily due to a specific disaster

• Environmental forced migrants: leave due to slowly deteriorating environmental conditions (e.g sea level rise in Arctic regions)

• Environmental motivated migrants: economic migrants who leave in order to avoid future problems

Effects of climate change on ocean transport

• 90% of the world’s trade is done through ocean transport routes

• Thawing of continental glaciers (e.g The Arctic) opens up the Arctic Ocean transport routes

• Rising sea levels may hinder passage of ships under previously constructed confined spaces (e.g small bridges) near ports and oceans

Climate change vulnerability case study: Alaska

• Many individuals are forced to displace

• 31 villages in danger of disintegrating

• Houses start to be submerged

• School is the only building with running water

• Food consist of animals that the people hunt or fish → the thawing of ice affected hunting practices and food supply (whale, their main food source, stopped coming)

Kivalina (small village) needs to be relocated and deserted as it is isolated and cannot be reached by road

• Temperature increasing at more than 2x the global average

• Thin ice → too dangerous to hunt on and live on as there is less sea ice to protect the island from powerful waves

• Coastal erosion, sinking land, severe storms

• The Wulk River washes away large chunks of stream bank and increases river sediment has caused difficulty treating the community water supply

• Relocation is expensive (100 mil USD) → high suicide rates as people don’t know how to deal with the problem

Newtok village (400 inhabitants) lost 1.5 km of the coastline

• Less snow to protect beach from erosion

• 2004 rain → lost 15 m of beach → happened time and again

Climate change vulnerability case study: The Philippines

• MIC with 101 mil people and 7000 islands

• Located mainly in the tropical cyclone belt → hit by 20 major storms a year

• 2011 a combination of coastal and river flooding by Typhoon Washi killed 1250

• 2013 Typhoon Haiyan (strongest storm ever recorded) killed 6300

• Correlation between increased intensity of storms and progression of climate change

• Failure of authorities to have better management policies contribute to increased risks (e.g land-use zoning, warning systems + notices to remote islands, better infrastructure)

• Development of slums/informal housing due to urbanisation in Manila also contributed to the risk

International agreements: Kyoto Protocol 1997

Aim: to reduce GHG emissions by 5% between 2008-2012 in comparison to 1990 levels

Pros

• Signed + ratified by 38 industrial nations

• Resulted in a 12.5% reduction

• Educated populations on climate change + dismissed climate skepticism

Cons

• All parties other than the Russian Federation and Ukraine on average reduced emissions by only 2.7% → success is mainly attributed to the fall of the USSR

• US didn’t ratify and Canada withdrew

• Based on 3 wrong analogies: CFC reduction (already has an alternative), SO₂ reduction (targets only one gas), Arms Reduction Treaty (between the US and Russia - bilateral)

• China and India, rapidly growing industrial nations, were excluded because they were “developing” at the time

• Reduced emission by paying other countries to offset or reduce emissions/transferring them to other countries (carbon leakage and embedded emissions)