Hazards

Volcanic Hazard - Soufrière Hills

Soufrière Hills Volcano in Montserrat, Caribbean, erupted on the 25th June, 1997.

Soufrière Hills - What is the plate boundary?

Montserrat is an island arc that formed as the South American plate subducted under the Caribbean plate at a destructive margin.

Soufrière Hills - What was the cause of the event?

Magma rose up through weak points under the Soufrière Hills, forming underground magma pools.

The rock above collapsed, opening a vent causing the eruption.

Soufrière Hills - what is the lava type and volume of ash and gas released?

Basaltic - viscous and silica-rich

4-5 million m³

Soufrière Hills - What factors affected perception?

Poor LIC - average income $2800 per year, GDP of $3400 per year.

British Overseas Territory - governed by a locally elected parliament which works with the UK government.

Frequency - volcano was dormant for over 300 years

Religion - 97.4% is religious, most popular being Protestantism (67.1%) leading to fatalism.

Soufrière Hills - What is the population?

4900 - 88.4% black and only 2.7% white

Soufrière Hills - How many live below the poverty line?

36% of the population

Soufrière Hills - What hazards does the island face?

Multi-hazardous - hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanoes.

Soufrière Hills - How many deaths were there?

23 deaths in 1997

Soufrière Hills - Primary Social Impacts

Capital, Plymouth, buried in ash up to 12m.

2/3 of homes destroyed.

¾ of businesses and infrastructure destroyed.

20 villages destroyed.

Airport, port, schools and hospitals destroyed by 2 pyroclastic flows.

Soufrière Hills - Primary Environmental Impacts

Forest fires caused by lava.

Farmland destroyed.

75% of island covered in ash.

Flooding caused by valleys being blocked by ash.

Soufrière Hills - Primary Economic Impacts

Capital Plymouth became a ghost town.

Cost estimated around $500 million.

Soufrière Hills - Secondary Social Impacts

Ash in the air led to ongoing respiratory conditions (asthma).

Population fell to 1500 in 2001.

Evacuees lived in unhygienic temporary camps (longer than expected).

Riots occurred when locals thought UK wasn’t doing enough.

Soufrière Hills - Secondary Environmental Impacts

Environmental damage to beaches, forests, offshore reefs (long repair time).

Many species found only in Montserrat are at risk of extinction (eg Acropora Coral and Oriole)

Soufrière Hills - Secondary Economic Impacts

Economy decimated through loss of farming and tourism.

Housing shortages led to 70% increase in rent.

Soufrière Hills - What was the change in unemployment rate?

From 7% to 50%.

Soufrière Hills - Short-term Responses

People were evacuated from the South to the North.

Many were evacuated to Antigua and Guadeloupe.

£17 million of emergency aid provided by UK for temporary housing and water purification.

Local Emergency services provided search and rescue units.

Soufrière Hills - What did NGOs do?

NGOs such as International Red Cross and Oxfam set up temporary schools, medical support and food.

Soufrière Hills - How many left Montserrat following the eruption, and how?

7000 - 4000 went to the UK with the help of US troops and the British Navy.

Soufrière Hills - Long-term Responses

Capital moved to Brades near the port of Little Bay.

2/3 of the island remains an exclusion zone.

Soufrière Hills - Long-term Responses (Prevention)

A risk map of exclusion zones were put in place for the South. The South is off-limits and all visits are restricted.

Soufrière Hills - In 1998 and 2002, what were Montserrat people granted?

Full residency rights in the UK and British citizenship was granted in 2002. Offered £2500 each to permanently relocate. (Mitigation)

Soufrière Hills - Prediction

Montserrat Volcano Observatory was set up in 1995, successfully predicting the 1997 eruption.

Soufrière Hills - Preparation since 1997

Warning systems were set up including sirens, speakers and the use of media. These are tested daily at 12 noon.

Soufrière Hills - Adaptation

3 year development plan funded by the UK.

Tourism rebuilt using the volcano as an attraction.

Potential to exploit geothermal energy and export volcanic sand for construction.

Seismic Hazard - Haiti

Haiti, West Indies, Caribbean, experienced an earthquake on the 12th January, 2010. (4:53pm local time).

Haiti, 2010 - What is the plate boundary?

The Caribbean plate is moving east and the North American plate is moving west. It is a conservative margin.

Haiti, 2010 - What was the epicentre, the focus and magnitude?

Epicentre - 25km West of Capital, Port-au-Prince.

Focus - shallow, 13km deep.

7.0 on the Richter scale.

Haiti, 2010 - What was the cause?

The plates were discovered in 2008 to have been jammed, building up pressure for 250 years. By 24th January 2010, at least 52 aftershocks of 4.5+ Richter had occurred.

Haiti, 2010 - What factors affected perception?

National debt, extreme poverty and poor housing conditions.

No building codes and low construction standards. (2 million lived as squatters)

Poorest country in the western hemisphere. (149th out of 182 on the HDI).

2010 earthquake was the 7th major event recorded since 1950s possibly leading to fatalism.

Last earthquake was 200 years ago (lack of preparation)

Haiti, 2010 - What was the population?

9.9 million

Haiti, 2010 - What hazards does Haiti face?

Multi-harzardous - hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanoes.

Haiti, 2010 - How many deaths were there?

Over 230000.

Haiti, 2010 - How many were injured and made homeless?

300000 injured and 1.5 million made homeless.

Haiti, 2010 - Primary Social Impacts

50% of densely packed buildings destroyed including parliament building.

5000 schools and other buildings destroyed.

Violence and looting due to breakdown of law.

Haiti, 2010 - Secondary Social Impacts

Spread of disease, over 8000 died in cholera outbreak and by 2011 over 1500 died.

Localised tsunami 2 weeks after, killing at least 3.

By 2014, over 170000 were still in displacement camps.

23% of primary children weren’t at school.

70% lacked access to electricity.

600000 were food insecure.

Haiti, 2010 - Primary Environmental Impacts

Habitats destroyed by liquefaction.

Sea levels in local areas changed, some parts sinking below sea.

Lost 98% of its forest cover.

Haiti, 2010 - Secondary Political Impacts

Loss of hundreds of civil servants.

Destruction of ministries including Palais Legislatif.

Haiti, 2010 - Primary Economic Impacts

Clothing industry, 2/3 of exports, reported structural damage.

Haiti, 2010 - Secondary Economic Impacts

Total costs were around $8 billion.

For Frequency of Tropical Storms - Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC)

Concluded it is virtually certain that the frequency and intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic has increased since the 1970s.

For Frequency of Tropical Storms - Increasing sea temperatures can increase likelihood of formation.

The formation of tropical storms needs warm sea surface temperatures of a least 27°C, therefore as global temperatures increase so do sea temperatures, so do the likelihood of storms.

Against Frequency of Tropical Storms - Counterpoint

Although there is an almost certain increase in frequency of tropical storms, it is unclear whether it is a direct result of human changes to the climate.

Against Frequency of Tropical Storms - Holland and Bruyere

Found no discernible trend in human-caused signals in annual global tropical cyclone or hurricane frequencies.

Intensity of Tropical Storms - 2013 study found an increase in the proportion of category 4 and category 5 hurricanes.

The proportion has increased at a rate of approximately 25–30 % per °C of global warming. The increase in most powerful storms is balanced by a similar decrease in Category 1 and Category 2 hurricanes.

Intensity of Tropical Storms - Strong evidence that increasing sea temperatures increase the intensity of tropical storms when they develop.

The formation of tropical storms needs warm sea surface temperatures of a least 27°C, therefore as global temperatures increase so do sea temperatures, so does the energy available increasing intensity.

Intensity of Tropical Storms - Against

There is no evidence suggesting there is no increase in intensity

Define: Hazard

A potential threat to human life and property caused by an event.

What is an example of a geophysical hazard?

Earthquake

What is are two examples of atmospheric hazards?

Droughts, Cyclones

What is an example of a hydrological hazard?

Floods

What is an example of a biological hazard?

Pandemic

Define: Risk

The likelihood that humans will be seriously affected by a hazard.

Define: Vulnerability

How susceptible a population is to the damage caused by a hazard.

What 4 factors affect perception of hazards?

Wealth, Religion, Education, and Past experience

Define: Fatalism

The viewpoint that hazards are uncontrollable, therefore losses should be accepted.

Define: Prediction

Using scientific research to predict when and where a hazard will occur so that warnings can be issued and impacts can be reduced.

Define: Adaptation

Attempting to live with hazards by adjusting lifestyle choices to lessen vulnerability.

Define: Mitigation

Strategies carried out to lessen the severity of a hazard.

Define: Management

Coordinated strategies to reduce a hazard’s effects, including prediction, adaptation, and mitigation.

Define: Risk Sharing

A form of community preparedness, working together to reduce the risk and cost of hazard response.

What is the difference between intensity and magnitude?

Intensity is the strength and the effects on the person whereas the magnitude is the size, how the intensity is measured.

Tropical Storm - HIC

Hurricane Katrina, 29th August 2005 at 6:10am

Tropical Storm - NEE

Typhoon Haiyan, 7th November 2013 at 4:40am.

Hurricane Katrina

Category 5, peak wind 280km/hr

Typhoon Haiyan

Category 5, peak wind 250km/hr - 315km/hr

How many fatalities and deaths did Hurricane Katrina cause?

1392 fatalities and 652 deaths

How many fatalities, injuries, and people went missing from Typhoon Haiyan?

6352 fatalities, 28781 injuries and 1071 missing.

What is the estimated total damaged caused by Hurricane Katrina?

$125 billion USD

What is the estimated total damaged caused by Typhoon Haiyan?

$2.99 billion USD

How many states did Katrina impact?

5 southern states - primarily Louisianna and Mississippi

What countries did Haiyan impact?

Phillipines and Vietnam - primarily Tacloban

Cause of Katrina

A low-pressure system over The Atlantic, first forming near the Bahamas. Regained strength over the Gulf of Mexico.

Cause of Haiyan

Northwest Pacific Ocean, rapidly intensified, passed the Philippines and emerged in the South China Sea weakening before passing China and Vietnam.

Katrina - primary social impact

More than 1 million became refugees, 5 million were left without power, 223000km² were declared a disaster zone.

Katrina - secondary social impact

230000 jobs lost, spread of cholera, 705 missing.

Katrina, Louisianna - Social Impacts

110000 houses in New Orleans flooded, half too badly damaged to repair, New Orleans was under 6ft of water, looting.

Katrina, Mississippi - Social Impacts

Infrastructure along the coast was completely damaged

Haiyan - Primary Social Impact

4 million people made homeless, 6 million displaced, over 20000 people fled to Manila.

What percentage of Tacloban was destroyed?

90% - described as apocalyptic

What happened to the Tacloban city airport?

It was damaged by a storm surge, repaired quickly and became the centre of international relief operations.

What made relief almost impossible?

Flooding and landslides which blocked major roads, only relief from air possible.

Haiyan - Secondary Social Impacts

Looting - killing 8 people in stampede. Water-borne diseases.

Katrina - Secondary Economic Impacts

Oil installations impacted, major insurance companies issued profit warning to stakeholders.

Katrina, Louisianna - Secondary Economic Impact

New Orleans residents unable to get home insurance, French Quarter severely damaged reducing tourism revenues.

Haiyan - Primary Economic Impacts

30000 boats destroyed leading to loss of livelihood.

Haiyan - Secondary Economic Impacts

Rice prices rose by 12%, flights and ferry services delayed slowing aid, 6 million lost their source of income.

Haiyan - Primary Political Impact

Local government officials died, went from 2500 to 70.

Katrina - Primary Environmental Impacts

Storm surge caused beach erosion, damaged coastal habitats and farmland. Water supplies were polluted.

Katrina, Louisianna - Primary Environmental Impacts

80% of New Orleans deluged, 1.3 million acres of trees lost, oil spills from 44 facilities entered the ecosystem.

Katrina, Mississippi - Primary Environmental Impact

5300km² of forest destroyed loss of $5 billion of income

Haiyan - Primary Environmental Impacts

71000 hectares affected impacting 1 million farmers, coconut plantations were completely flattened.

Haiyan - Secondary Environmental Impact

Oil tanker ran aground, causing 800,000 litre leak, 10 hectares of mangroves contaminated as a result.

Katrina - Short-term responses

US coast guard rescued 33000 people, public donated money to US Red Cross, FEMA paid for temporary housing for 700,000 people.

How much was donated by the public to the Red Cross?

$1.8 billion - more than 9/11 and 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami appeal

Katrina - What was the main criticism of short-term response?

Poor and disadvantage people were worse affect and Bush was too slow to visit the affected area, claims of racism.

Katrina - The Louisianna Superdome

Was supplied for 150,000 people for 3 days, however space became too full and issues of hygiene and crime arose.

Haiyan - Short-term response

WHO took prompt action to ensure outbreaks were isolated, International aid organisations provided food, water, aid, and temporary shelters.

Haiyan - Which countries deployed military aircrafts and what for?

Canada and USA for search and rescue and distribution of aid supplies.

Haiyan - Which countries set up field hospitals?

France, Belgium, and Israel