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Road blocks to critical thinking
hindsight bias, overconfidence, perceiving patterns in random events
Hindsight bias
the tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it
Overconfidence
the tendency to be more confident than correct. to overestimate the accuracy of our beliefs and judgments.
Perceiving order in random events
People perceive random sequences as patterns to make sense of their world
Correlation
A measure of how well one variable can predict another
Illusionary correlation
the perception of a relationship where none exists
single-blind study
study in which the subjects do not know if they are in the experimental or the control group
double-blind study
study in which neither the researcher nor the subjects know if the subjects are in the experimental or control group
placebo effect
experimental results caused by expectations alone (caused by assuming you've received an active agent)
experimental bias
a mistake in the design or interpretation of a study due to the researchers unconscious beliefs
validity
the extent to which a test measures or predicts what it is supposed to
operational definition
a carefully worded statement of the exact procedures used in a research study
theory
an explanation of behaviors or events that organizes observations to make a preditction
hypothesis
A testable prediction, often implied by a theory
case study
an observation technique in which one person is studied in depth in the hope of revealing universal principles
naturalistic observation
observing and recording behavior in naturally occurring situations without trying to manipulate and control the situation
survey
a technique for ascertaining the self-reported attitudes or behaviors of a particular group
social desirability bias
the tendency for people to say what they believe is appropriate or acceptable rather than what they actually feel
self-report bias
bias when people report their behavior inaccurately
sampling bias
A problem that occurs when a sample is not representative of the population from which it is drawn.
correlation vs. causation
correlation does not equal causation
confounding variable
a factor other than the independent variable that might produce an effect in an experiment
control group
the group that does not receive the experimental treatment
random assignment
assigning participants to experimental and control groups by chance, thus minimizing confounding variables
normal curve
the symmetrical bell-shaped curve that describes the distribution of many physical and psychological attributes. Most scores fall near the average, and fewer and fewer scores lie near the extremes. (68, 95, 99)
negatively skewed
a distribution of scores in which scores are concentrated in the high end of the distribution and trail off to the left
positively skewed
a distribution of scores in which scores are concentrated in the low end of the distribution and trail off to the right
outlier
Data point significantly different from others
standard deviation
a computed measure of how much scores vary around the mean score
4 ethical standards
Statistical Significance
a statistical statement of how likely it is that an obtained result occurred by chance