1984-94 - Reasons for Bothas decision to negotiate

Reasons

• Failure of total strategy

• Bothas reforms

• Economic problems

• State of emergency

• Rubicon speech

Failure of Total strategy

• Violence in townships, ANC attacks rose to nearly 300 by 1988

• Govt suppression increased international opposition

Bothas reforms

• Underpinned by WHAM (winning hearts and minds) - sought to appease non-whites whilst maintaining white supremacy

• Repealed mixed marriages act, pass laws abolished, parks largely desegregated (ending pacts of petty apartheid) BUT some aspects persisted (train segregation ect)

• Constitutional reforms passed in 1984 referendum; tricameral parliament (separate for Blacks, Whites and Coloured/Indians) with blacks electing local councils, multiracial cabinet controlled defence ect, uni racial cabinets controlled health/education, PM became president chosen by Majority white electoral college

• Limited support; 30% coloured and 20% Indians voted; 12% black turnout in locals

• Botha met regularly with Mandela and offered to free him if he Renounced violence BUT didn’t release him

Economic problems

• 90 US fm (inc Kodak) with drew 1985-86

• Rand feel 35% in 1985, whites estimated to be outnumbered 5-1 by blacked by 2000, inflation 18% (1986)

State of emergency

• Aimed to re-establish control and find lasting settlement

• Failed; didn’t remove underlying problems, SADF deployment of 8000 troops in townships didn’t stop violence, increased international opposition

• Botha rubicon speech indicated govt unwilling to change - inc international opposition