Risk

Risk

highly complex: the likelihood or probability of the occurrence of a hazard of a certain magnitude (risk = likelihood of occurrence x consequence)

What is involved in risk?

probability, level of exposure, effects and costs, consequences

Risk cannot be ______ it must be _______ and then ________

eliminated, assessed, managed

Assessment

evaluating significance of a particular threat (here is the problem)

Management

objective is to lower the known threats from sources and maximize any benefits (here is how we will manage them)

What is risk a combination of?

physical hazards and vulnerabilities of exposed elements

Involuntary risk

associated with activities that happen to us without prior knowledge or consent (less acceptance b/c no where to point the finger)

Voluntary risk

easier to define and have less catastrophe potential; more common and more willingly accepted

Risk assessment/ analysis

a process/ methodology that involves establishing a degree of risk an individual or community faces from a hazard; evaluating exposure to potential hazards

Quantitative risk assessment

numerically determine probability of occurrence (helps us determine what to prepare for

Qualitative risk assessment

used more frequently; defines various threats, determines extent of vulnerabilities and devises countermeasures for when an event occurs

Validity is determined by _____ and ______ of data

quality, availability

Analysis methods

-Risk assessment: objective based on stats, repeatable, involves decision

-Risk perception: subjective, based on perception element of personal experience, hypothetical and irrational

Steps of risk assessment

1. Identify and characterize hazard

2. Evaluate the hazard for severity and frequency

3. Estimate the risk (probability)

4. Determine the potential societal and economic effects

5. Determine the acceptable level of risk

6. Identify risk-reduction opportunities

Acceptable risk

degree of loss that is perceived by the community or relevant authorities to be tolerable actions to take to reduce disaster risk

Tolerable risk

level of risk that is tolerated rather than accepted; includes severity of risk, nature of impacts, level of understanding, and benefits of the risk in comparison to alternatives

Uncertainty guidance

risk assessment inherently incorporates uncertainty associated with determining the probability of an event occurring and the resulting magnitude of losses

Frequency

how often a given magnitude is equaled or exceeded (usually given as a recurrence interval/ return period)

Uniformitarianism

a belief that past processes and events are a good guide for the future (similar to stationarity)

Design event

the magnitude of a hazardous event that a structure is built to withstand during its lifetime (try to make it cost efficient and also effective

Magnitude vs frequency

inverse correlation between magnitude and frequency; frequent events are low in magnitude, rare events are high in magnitude

Return period

= (# of events + 1)/ event ranking

Frequency of events, fatalities, and return period

low-fatality events are more frequent and lower return period, high-fatality events are less frequent and have a much longer return period

“100-year flood”

creates misconception around frequency of events, affects how people perceive the likelihood of events

Stationarity

past records are used to predict future occurrence, not thinking about the changing factors and allows for dangerous assumptions

Risk assessment issues

should be thought of as a dynamic, ongoing process, not as a one-time project, issue of over-simplified data and overly quantitative data (diverts attention from preventative measures)

Other challenges

difficulty in understanding the changing sensitivity or vulnerability of societies to hazards (social tolerance)

Risk management

process of taking action to reduce or eliminate hazards or at least the harms they cause (lower the threat, maximize the benefit)

Mitigation

actions taken to reduce threats to life, property and environment posed by extreme events

Preparedness

ensuring the readiness of individuals and communities to take precautionary measures and respond to impending disaster

Importance of risk management plan

-communication and education

-regulation

-mitigation

-insurance

-provision of emergency aid

-feedback and learning

Credibility 

one of the most valued characteristics for effective risk communication

Risk perception

refers to the subjective judgements that individuals make about the characteristics and severity of risk (reflects the decision makers’s own interpretation)

Worldview

an overall perspective of how one interprets their environment or the world around them (determine one’s thoughts, opinions, and decisions)

What 2 dimensions do people perceive risk from?

what they know about the risk and how they feel about the risk

Cognitive bias

psychological tendencies that cause the human brain to draw incorrect conclusions; “cognitive shortcut” that skew reliability of information/ evidence

Dread

“extreme fear” (act of not seeing something increases this)

Affect heuristic

intuition/ fight or flight; what we think about a risk in terms of our intuitive feelings

Optimism bias

sense where people believe their personal risk from a hazard is less than the risk faced by others (can lead to diminished perceptions of threat influence response)

Normalcy bias

incorrect belief that since a hazardous event has never occurred “here” then it will never occur (causes underestimation of risk)

Gambler fallacy

the idea that once a disaster has occurred, it is unlikely to occur again for a while

Why is it so difficult to remold risk?

strongly held beliefs are hard to modify, naive views are easily manipulated by presentation format

Fatalism 

the belief that what will happen has already been decided and cannot be changed (caused by external forces out of their control which stops people from taking action)

Characteristics affecting perception of risk

involuntary, life-threatening, immediate, direct, unfamiliar, involve children (these cause people to take them more seriously)

Primary determinants of perceived risk

dread/ severity, exposure, experience and familiarity

How does experience influence perception?

experience causes a hazard event to become more meaningful which increases risk perception (experience is a powerful incentive to hazard mitigation)

What % of the population living in hurricane prone areas have never experienced a major hurricane? 

80-90%, result= false impressions of hurricane damage potential = complacency and lack of action

Perceived risk is _________ and ___________

subjective and variable

Risk communication

ultimate goal is to generally change people’s behaviors in a given situation; that requires a keen understanding of audiences and their situations

Path to an effective forecast

accurate, honest, understood, believed, helpful in decision making

Best practices for risk communication

start small, use social norms to advantage, know your audience, present easy to understand and repetitive information, positive approach

Problem with “damn idiot public”

in reality it is not that simple, people look for secondary confirmation in order to make a decision and act upon a situation