Immigration Politics Midterm

How people choose their destination?

Individuals compare conditions in a potential destination country to their origin country (dyadic comparison)

Sending states

States that have a high proportion of people migrating to countries with better conditions

Receiving states

States that receive migrants from countries characterized for their civil rights, democratic norms, and welfare safety nets

Neo-classical theory

Best predictor of migration is the earning potential over a migrant’s assumed course of life (also known as the gravity model)

Neo-classical theory formula

Expected Wage Differential — Migration Cost > 0

*if the results are positive migrants will move

Wage turn

Publicly accessible wage data

Migration cost

The monetary and non-monetary costs of migration (e.g. the cost of learning a language, cost of civil rights, etc.)

Predictions of the neo-classical theory

1. No migration will happen without a positive difference in wages

2. The larger the wage gap between two countries, the higher the flow of migrants

What would happen if there were no barriers to migration?

Global wages would equalize and high-income countries would lose their comparative advantage

Supply during the Era of Mass Economic Migration (1850s to 1914)

• Caused by the Green Revolution b/c of a surplus of wages

• Industrialization and urbanization > decline in European living conditions

• Steam boats = steep decline in cost of travel

Demand during the Era of Mass Economic Migration (1850s to 1914)

• Positive citizen sentiments toward migration

• Migrants were seen as dramatic economic boosts

• Lacks of regulation enforcement for immigration

Restrictive Political Regime (1914 – 1950s)

• Creation of passports in order to enforce national security

• Economic downfall after WWI > increase in wages > decrease in quality of life

• Increase in anti-immigrant sentiments

Supply and demand of wage differentials

How many individuals are willing to migrate/can they > how many workers does the country needs/how many migrants will the country accept

Migration propensity

• Middle-income individuals are the most likely to immigrate to other countries

• Migration is a middle-class phenomenon

Migration hump

Phenomenon that explain that the majority of migration flows are made up of middle income migrants (by GDP)

Economics and labor migration

Economic security is more important than wage differentials (b/c of large unemployment rates in immigrant communities); relative deprivation

Wealth and labor migration

People care about relative rather than absolute wealth (not strictly focused on maximizing their economic security)

How are emigration rates predicted?

Predicted by income inequality in the country of origin using the GINI coefficient and poverty thresholds

Remittances

Money sent by family members who migrated to other countries w/ higher earning potentials (contribute significantly to a home country’s GDP)

Earnings and assets in multiple countries can maximize economic security!!

Heuristics

Mental shortcuts that used to simplify problems and avoid cognitive overload; migrants have huge information deficits that require increased focus on social factors

Welfare magnet theory formula

(Change in economic security) – (Migration Cost) > 0

Welfare Magnet Theory

• Migrants go to states and regions with generous welfare benefits and social services rather than focusing on job stability

• They intend to work but prioritize destinations with these benefits as a form of risk aversion

• Migrants go to regions w/ many existing migrants (which tend to have generous benefits)

Perceptions of migrant welfare usage

People think migrants use welfare benefits at much higher rates than native citizens

e.g. the 5-year ban on access to federal welfare benefits and the EU allowance of denying residence and benefits to EU migrants

Do immigrants tend to use welfare benefits at higher rates?

Migrants use social services at higher rates (e.g. FRL) and use cash benefits at lower rates than native citizens

Difference between migrant and refugee access to welfare benefits

Refugees have access to federal and state welfare benefits, migrants do not (and they use them both at higher rates than citizens)

World Systems Theory

Capitalism opens up new markets, which causes intense disruptions within pre-capitalist societies

Impacts of capitalism on pre-capitalist societies

• Decline in traditional livelihoods and occupations

• Urbanization

• Surplus of agrarian workers

• Emergence of income difference/disparities

*gain incentives to search for opportunity + security

Segmented Labor Market Theory

Developed capitalist countries have a constant demand for low-wage immigrant labor; wage differentials and status positions must be maintained

tldr: we want lower-wage workers so we don’t have to raise everyones salaries (via guest worker programs or seasonal worker programs)

Chain migration

People tend to migrate to destinations where there are significant populations of co-ethnics/nationals

Two factors of chain migration

Migration costs (decrease) economic security in arrival country (increase)

Migration costs and chain migration

• Dissemination of information re: country encourages arrivals

• Demand for transport to that country increases > cost decreases

• Translation and assistance services for new immigrants

• Advocacy and non-profits cater to immigrants

Economic security and chain migration

• Community support

• Potential employers

• Temporary/long-term housing

• Sponsors

Migration sponsors

Economic immigrants require a ____ already residing in the United States that can affirm that they will not fall back on welfare benefits

Ethnic enclaves

Cities with high proportions of certain immigrants have districts/neighborhoods highly concentrated w/ that population

Impacts of ethnic enclaves

• Increased use of welfare benefits

• Engage in crime

• Increased school performance

• Better long-term earnings

• Similar health outcomes

*results vary based on relative success of existing migrant populations

Public perception of ethnic enclaves

• Decreased integration/interaction w/ native born citizens > feelings of otherness

• Separates migrants from natives can create negative sentiments toward high-concentrations of them

Rights-based migration

Individuals from weak/unstable democracies/dictatorships migrate to countries with stable democratic governments > though regime type matters less for migrants

Scandinavian Refugee Programs

Refugees could not choose their locations and were placed in cities by the government; were allowed to relocate after 1 year (all went to cities w/ high pops. of immigrants)

Negative side-effects of excluding migrants from welfare benefits

• Decreased investment in human capital by the state for immigrant pops.

• Lack of access to food + quality education > decreased migrant productivity

• Victims to financial scams and ruin > disengage from labor market

Survival of the fittest

The most productive immigrants are the ones able to enter the labor market and have a higher capability of staying in the country

Federalization and migrant welfare benefits

Different authorities have the power to tax benefits in the U.S. BUT state and local governments can still provide benefits even if the fed. gov. refuses to do so

Migrant self-sorting

Refugees value labor market matters and informal support networks more than welfare benefits when determining where to relocation in a country

Incentives to control/restrict immigration

1. Maintain relative wealth/wage differentials

2. Public service levels (more migrants strain the safety net)

3. Social cohesion/avoid voter backlash (e.g. homeowners/gen public)

4. Address security concerns/risks

5. Legitimize state authority

Why is there a mismatch between public opinion and actual immigration policy?

If immigration policy was formulated on public opinion, there would be way lower levels of immigration than the ones we are seeing in present day (but large business interests want immigrants)

Open immigration policy

• Supported by employers/business interests who have a desire to fill skill shortages

• More workers there are > less they have to pay them

• Lower input costs > higher outputs

• Have a lot of $$$ to lobby the center left for immigration policy

Republicans used to support open immigration b/c of econ growth.

Restrictive immigration policy

• Supported by unions

• Less competition for jobs > increase in wages

• Workers do not want enough people in the labor market to meet demand

• Companies can go around unions to employ migrants to replace labor during a strike

Client politics

Politicians care about re-election and campaign fundraising (interest groups and lobbyists play the largest role in influencing these factors)

e.g. Unions have the power to push their members to support a certain candidate

Electoral realignment in immigration policy

Decline in manufacturing led to a downturn of working class electorate and made unions irrelevant

The left needed to regain their lost constituency > shifted from econ. impacts to an identity-based approach

Visas

Right granted by the country for a specific amount of time (they determine the length of the stay); some are accompanied by different rights and statuses

Non-immigrant visa

Temporary visas given to everyone who isn’t on a pathway to permanent residency (e.g. an H visas/H-1B visa for short-term workers)

Immigrant visa

Leads to permanent immigration > residence permits > and citizenship (600,000 of them are issued a year)

Rights of an immigrant visa

• Reside permanently but with limited rights

• Granted for certain visa classes after a waiting period

• Can be revoked for criminal activity/abandonment to country

Family sponsorship preferences

• Give visas to people who already have relatives in the United States; make up 44% of all visa admissions

• Depends on whether or not they have a family member in the country

• Family reunification is a human right according to int. law

Public Charge Rule

U.S. should not admit anyone that they think could be a welfare migrant

Points system

Immigrants have certain qualifications and they receive a certain amounts of ____ based on the experience they have (e.g. being bilingual, having a masters, being younger, etc.)

Benefits of the points system

• Maximizes the positive impacts of economic migration

• Controls who is coming in/how many people are coming in

• Designed to be origin blind

• Increases support for immigration

• Allows governments to adjust the amount of points they assign to different categories depending on economic/industry demand in labor market

Drawbacks of the points system

• High skilled immigration can have negative effects in an inflationary economy

• Have the potential to be high earners > contribute more in spending > drive up prices for your average citizen

• Hikes up the cost of living in big cities

Temporary visa rights

Only allowed to work with no expectation that it would translate into residency

Permanent residency rights

Have the right to reside in the country if they are unemployed and are given residency; key rights of democratic freedoms are shared w/ citizens (other than voting)

Criteria of permanent residency (Germany)

• Demonstrate secure livelihoods of income/insurance/investments

• Contribute to the national pension

• Having an adequate living space

• Knowledge of the language and culture via integration

• No criminal activity/record

Right of blood (Europe); jus sanguinis

• Acquire citizenship from parents

• Most common around the globe

• Preserves historic ethnicity of the state

  • Some allow just parents, some allow grandparents, etc.

Right of soil (western hemisphere); jus soli

• Acquire citizenship by being born on national soil

• Allows for citizenship from parents

• Concentrated in settler states where majority of pop. is descendant from immigration waves

German citizenship program

Children born to a Legal Permanent Resident with 8 years of residency are granted citizenship at birth

14th amendment

All persons born or naturalized in the United States (and subject to the jurisdiction thereof) are citizens of the U.S. and of the State wherein they reside

United States vs. Wong Kim Ark

Undocumented immigrants are qualified for right of soil; determined that they were considered to be under the jurisdiction of the U.S. government

Barriers to naturalization

• Residence period

• Fees

• Knowledge tests

• Prohibition on dual citizenship (prior citizenship must be revoked)

Why do governments implement barriers to naturalization?

They are trying to slow the rate of people becoming citizens > usually because they are scared of the electoral impact (will lower them if its beneficial for the party)

External enforcement

Tactics that occur within the external border zone that determine which migrants can enter (e.g. border fences, vehicle barriers, etc.)

Roosevelt Reservation

60-foot wide strip of federally owned land along the U.S.-Mexico border

Internal enforcement

Policies designed to identify/remove individuals living in the country without authorization after entry (way less popular option)

Effects of border enforcement

• Shifts in migrant routes

• Increased smuggling costs (coyotes) > proves that border deterrence is effective

Unintended effects of border enforcement

• Empowers criminal organizations via smugglers and cartels

• Encourages long-term stay

• Alters modes of entry

• Raises the prices of goods

Cage effect

If you know it’s harder to cross into the country you’re less likely to try to return to your country of origin (incentivized to bring their families to the country they’re now residing in)

Demonstration effect

Voters think immigration is too high, so they need to see something is being done to combat this (e.g. a physical border wall is something that can be shown to voters to prove the gov. is acting)

Guest worker programs

Unprecedented economic growth in Europe and the U.S. after WWII (economic miracle) caused the implementation of __________ to maintain the economic momentum

German Guest Worker Program

• Recruiting agreements w/ Italy, Spain, Greece, etc.

• Recruited over 2.5 million workers

• Workers were seen as essential to growing the economy

• Abolished the rotation principle and relaxed oversight b/c of employer pressures

• German ended the program after the OPEC oil crisis

Deterrence policies to combat overstaying guest worker programs

• Denying worker permits to family members

• Refusing to extend normal residence permits/no access to citizenship

• Preventing remittance payments (backfires b/c workers bring their families)

• Paying individuals to leave

Fait accompli

Government began viewing former guest workers and their families as having an indefinite right to remain

Rotation principle

Limited duration to be a guest worker (e.g. 2 consecutive years limit to apply to work in a country)

Bracero Program

• Agreement between the United States and Mexico to bring guest workers into the United States to pick crops in California

• Saw a huge increase in unauthorized migration into the U.S.

Why are undocumented guest workers not deported?

• Public opinion constrained the ability to engage in mass deportations

• Voters tend to support future compliance with immigration law

• Much less supporting of retroactive internal enforcement (after the government has decided to take action)

Recent developments in border enforcement

• More than 14 million undocumented migrants are currently in the U.S.

• Total deportations in 2025 under Trump were lower than the deportations under Biden in 2024

• Increased visibility of deportations b/c of shift in arrests from CBP to ICE

  • Shift in ICE targeting patterns and visibility

Immigrations and Customs Enforcement powers

• Handle internal border enforcement

• Right to question, arrest, and detain those suspected of immigration crimes

• Handles deportation after detention

• Can make public stops following reasonable suspicion

• Can enter private areas only with a judicial warrant

Pattern of arrests in the United States

Seeing more arrests inside the country than at the border (230k ICE arrests compared to 150k CBP arrests)

Demographic makeup of Trump deportations

Half of the # of deportations during the first Trump administration are migrants pulled out of U.S. prisons and sent back to their home countries to be held

Impacts of refusing to comply with ICE

Increase in “at large” arrests in communities via public raids, more for PR than a sustained immigration operation; majority of the people detained are not criminals

Self-deportation

By giving the impression deportations are higher than in actuality, it leads to an increase of migrants leaving their host country willingly and returning to their country of origin (fostered by a climate of fear)

Refugee

Someone who has been forced to flee their country b/c of persecution, war, or violence (e.g. reasons of race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership in a particular social group)

Asylum seekers

The right to be recognized as a refugee and receive legal protection and material assistance (apply at their final destinations)

Internally displaced person (IDP)

person who has been forced to flee his or her home for the same reason as a refugee, but remains in his or her own country and has not crossed an international border (not protected by international law or eligible to receive many types of aid)

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)

• Original mandate covered refugees in Europe

• Decolonization in Africa triggered shift to global mandate

• Safeguards refugee rights within destination countries

UNHCR crisis response

Provides humanitarian assistance and safeguards refugee rights within destination countries

UNHCR long-term management

• Helps refugee repatriation (return home)

• Facilitates refugee resettlement

Destination state obligations under the Geneva Convention

• May not expel refugees

• Must grant legal assistance and provide identity or travel papers

• Must treat refugees as citizens w/ respect to work, the right of association, and right of free movement

Non-refoulement

The practice of not forcing refugees or asylum seekers to return to a country in which they are liable to be subjected to persecution

Article 9 of the Geneva Convention

Destination states are “able to take provisional measures against a refugee if needed in the interest of essential national security”

UNHCR refugee resettlement program

1. Select refugees for referral (less than 1%)

2. States select approved refugees from camps, following an internal vetting process

3. Selected refugees are transported to the destination state and resettled in host community

4. Refugees are given a loan for the refugee flights into the U.S.

5. Resettlement agencies are mainly religious organizations

Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR)

Gives countries increased funding to offset the increased cost of refugee resettlement (“burden” on the welfare state)

What occurs after refugee arrival?

• Resettlement agencies are mandated to assist refugees for 90 days

• Some clients (supported by federal funds) receive resettlement agency assistance

• In private sponsorship programs, these requirements are legally transferred to a sponsor

Services provided by refugee resettlement programs

• Airport pickup

• Initial housing + furnishing

• Cultural orientation

• Documentation

• Enrollment in welfare programs

• Assistance finding a job