READ 2: The Emerging Biden Doctrine

Biden's Core Foreign Policy

U.S.-China rivalry is a "contest with autocrats" to determine if democracies can compete in the 21^{st} century.

Inflection Point (Biden's View)

A pivotal global moment deciding between democratic or autocratic dominance in the 21^{st} century.

Biden's Evolution on China

Dismissed China as a competitor in 2019; now sees the central clash as democracy vs. authoritarianism.

Administration's Perspective on Autocracy Contest

Links great-power competition, revitalizing democracy, and addressing transnational issues.

Three Interrelated Challenges to Democratic Nations

1. Threat from Authoritarian Powers, 2. Transnational Problems, 3. Decay of Democracy from Within.

Primary Authoritarian Challengers

Russia and China, contesting U.S. power and menacing democracies ideologically and geopolitically.

Authoritarian Ideological Challenge

Russia and China's illiberal models challenge global order, seeking to replace the existing liberal system.

Tactics of Russia (Authoritarian Powers)

Uses cyberattacks and disinformation to destabilize democracies and foster internal division.

Tactics of China (Authoritarian Powers)

Suppresses criticism via market power, aids autocratic repression, rewrites international rules, invests in 5G/AI for autocratic influence.

Consequence of Autocratic Leadership (Roosevelt's Warning)

A world led by aggressive autocracies would be "shabby and dangerous" for freedom.

Transnational Problems as a Systemic Challenge

Issues like COVID-$19$ and corruption test democracies' capacity and are exploited by autocrats.

Decay of Democracy from Within

Internal erosion (e.g., anti-democratic sentiments) weakens democracies, making them vulnerable and reducing global influence.

Biden Doctrine: Three-Fold Response

1. Strengthen democratic cohesion, 2. Address transnational problems, 3. Reinvest for "position of strength."

Strengthening Democratic Cohesion

Fortifying democratic unity against autocrats by prioritizing alliances (e.g., Europe, Indo-Pacific, G7 infrastructure).

Democratic Infrastructure Program

G7 initiative for transparent, high-quality infrastructure in developing nations, countering China's Belt and Road.

Leading on Transnational Problems

Promotes democratic cooperation on global challenges like vaccine distribution (Quad, G7) and anti-corruption campaigns.

Building a "Position of Strength"

Reinvests in U.S. competitiveness domestically (R&D, infrastructure) and globally (tech alliances, countering repression).

Biden's "Foreign Policy for the Middle Class"

Global engagement to provide tangible benefits for working families, supported by domestic investments and a global minimum tax.

Challenges in Framing Issues with Coalitions

Democratic framing limits coalition; pragmatic alliances with imperfect/autocratic governments (e.g., Poland, Turkey) require compromises.

Difficulties with Core Democratic Allies

Conflicting economic interests (Chinese purchases), transatlantic divisions (privacy, data), and hard to forge concrete multilateral responses (e.g., Nord Stream 2 trade-offs).

Distraction from Military Dangers

Overemphasis on ideological/tech struggle risks diverting attention from critical military threats, potentially leading to systemic loss.

U.S. Military Preparedness Concerns

2018 commission warned U.S. military lacks power for Eurasian commitments and has a "window of vulnerability" in Taiwan Strait; administration shows little urgency.